How long can Jeb survive with under-10% polling and poor debate performances?

[Blue3]

How long can Jeb survive with under-10% polling and poor debate performances, until the money starts to dry up and he's forced to seriously consider dropping out?

I mean, can Jeb really survive 5+ months of polling that's mostly under 10%?

I know he has money and establishment support, but will they really back him for so long if he can't mount a comeback? When does his campaign become a zombie like Perry's, if there's no big bounce?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The establishment backing will never leave Bush. Walker and Rubio aren't polling significantly better.

[weixiaobao]

He will be the 45th President.

Source: dudeabides

[bagelman]

The establishment backing will never leave Bush. Walker and Rubio aren't polling significantly better.

What about Kasich? What if he can power ahead to be the establishment's favorite? Or is he too moderate?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The establishment backing will never leave Bush. Walker and Rubio aren't polling significantly better.

What about Kasich? What if he can power ahead to be the establishment's favorite? Or is he too moderate?

Too moderate. They'll support him if Bush, Walker and Rubio clearly don't have a chance after the early states and he's still in the race, but not until then

[Blue3]

The establishment backing will never leave Bush. Walker and Rubio aren't polling significantly better.

But it's only been a month or so since Jeb has been in single digits in so many polls.

Can they really keep backing him if he doesn't recover, at least a little?

[Penelope]

If Jeb remains under 10% in polling and continues to have poor debate performances, it's more than likely that Rubio would manage to siphon off a lot of establishment support from Jeb. So, in that scenario, Jeb would likely drop out sometime before the primaries and endorse Rubio in an attempt to stop Trump.

[andrew_c]

The GOP establishment would probably withdraw support if Jeb stays in single digits for more than 3 months.

[weixiaobao]

Fiorina and Kasich rise was great.  It take away Bush's supporters.  It is just too many fishes in that small pond.  I don't think Bush can even rise up to be #2 anymore unless a few of these people drop out (Kasich, Rubio, Fiorina).

I like Kasich a lot.  I hope he placed second or win New Hampshire.  That will like a nail in the coffin of Bush.  Kasich of course is a much easier opponent for Trump than Bush.

I see many people ranked Rubio as #1 on a lot of power ranking.  I think Rubio is done for the moment Trump shifted the conversation to immigration.

[Mehmentum]

As long as he performs better than any other establishment candidate.  Yeah, he's under 10%, but he's also polling better than Rubio, Walker, Kasich, and Christie.

[dudeabides]

Fiorina and Kasich rise was great.  It take away Bush's supporters.  It is just too many fishes in that small pond.  I don't think Bush can even rise up to be #2 anymore unless a few of these people drop out (Kasich, Rubio, Fiorina).

I like Kasich a lot.  I hope he placed second or win New Hampshire.  That will like a nail in the coffin of Bush.  Kasich of course is a much easier opponent for Trump than Bush.

I see many people ranked Rubio as #1 on a lot of power ranking.  I think Rubio is done for the moment Trump shifted the conversation to immigration.

John Kasich was over rated in that first debate, he was especially weak on defending the Obamacare medicaid expansion and how he'd appeal to ordinary people. He kept obsessing over his time in Washington D.C. as the other senators know Americans don't want a Washington insider.

The answer to the question is, Governor Bush will rise because eventually, people will recognize we need a proven leader, not a self-promoter.

[Averroës Nix]

I predict that he'll be out of the race by the end of the year, barring an unlikely turnaround in either national or early state polls.

There's no reason for Jeb to remain a candidate if he gets stuck in low-single digits, whether he has nine-figures in SuperPAC money or not, and at some point between now and then he'll lose  all but a few vestiges of the institutional support that has propelled him this far.

In the absence of some kind of implausibly elaborate conspiracy, I don't know how he'll improve his standing over the fall, or even arrest his protracted decline. He really is a tremendously weak candidate, and comparisons to Romney and McCain are unfair to both former nominees.

There's always the "but someone has to win" argument, I guess, but I don't think there's anything special about Jeb. Anything he can do, there's someone in this field who can do it better. (Well, aside from raising SuperPAC money, at least.)

[Mister Mets]

He'll survive until Kasich, Rubio, Walker, Christie, or maybe Fiorina does better. Or until Romney jumps in.

[°Leprechaun]

The issue isn't how poorly Bush is doing. The issue is how long Carson and Trump will be in the lead. For Bush to do well, one or both of them will have to slip. So, the question is actually will either of them improve, because if they don't they will eventually go down. This is going to take a while, don't expect a final verdict on Super Tuesday, because unless someone becomes inevitable by then, this whole process could take a while. Bush has a lot of endorsements.
His biggest liablility is his last name, of course.

[Gass3268]

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[°Leprechaun]

If he dropped out, who would take his place as the alternative to Trump and Carson?

[Angel of Death]

No way he will drop out before any voting takes place.

[heatmaster]

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven track record. Florida.
Carson, too nice and a antidote to Trump.
Christie, has been marginalized by Bridgegate, his manner is too loud and grating.
Fiorina, shrewd and a savvy political operator and a healthy antidote to Hillary fatigue,  not to be underestimated.  Also she's a woman.
Graham, sadly not going anywhere.
Huckabee, too holier than thou.
Jindal,  had possibilities.
Kasich, to much of an insider and as Dudeabides alluded in his/her submission,  a self promoter.
Perry, dropped out.
Rubio, Young, energetic and has a good manner.
Santorum,  yesterday's news.
Trump, the less said about him, the better, he's a motor mouth on energizer batteries....going on & on.
Walker, had potential,  still might,  but wouldn't bet the farm on such a scenario.
My money is still on Jeb & I'm keeping the faith😊

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven track record. Florida.
[…]

you missed a couple letters there, let me fix it for you:

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven train wreck record. Florida.
[…]

much better

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, Jeb has brand name recognition ... Unfortunately that "brand" is the equivalent of Skoda.

[Vosem]

I'm not a fan of Jeb Bush, but this thread is ridiculous. He is polling in third place in a 16-candidate field, and he remains the most-supported traditional candidate. Of the top three, he is by far the one with the strongest fundraising and ground game until such a moment when Trump decides to meaningfully self-fund. Unless he implodes in some kind of scandal -- which I see as unlikely for someone who has been a serious politician since the 1990s, and a member of a prominent family for longer -- there is no doubt in my mind he will make it to at least New Hampshire.

[dudeabides]

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven track record. Florida.
Carson, too nice and a antidote to Trump.
Christie, has been marginalized by Bridgegate, his manner is too loud and grating.
Fiorina, shrewd and a savvy political operator and a healthy antidote to Hillary fatigue,  not to be underestimated.  Also she's a woman.
Graham, sadly not going anywhere.
Huckabee, too holier than thou.
Jindal,  had possibilities.
Kasich, to much of an insider and as Dudeabides alluded in his/her submission,  a self promoter.
Perry, dropped out.
Rubio, Young, energetic and has a good manner.
Santorum,  yesterday's news.
Trump, the less said about him, the better, he's a motor mouth on energizer batteries....going on & on.
Walker, had potential,  still might,  but wouldn't bet the farm on such a scenario.
My money is still on Jeb & I'm keeping the faith😊

He's one of the only adults in the room, amen.

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven track record. Florida.
[…]

you missed a couple letters there, let me fix it for you:

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven train wreck record. Florida.
[…]

much better

The Bush record:
- Reduced taxes by $19 billion, Florida was a leader in economic growth
- Increased state reserves by $8 billion
- One of two states to go to an AAA bond rating between 1999-2007
- Reduced the size of the state workforce by 10%, privatized state services
- Enacted medical liability reform
- Enacted medicaid reform with more private options, saving taxpayer dollars
- Signed into law "Stand Your Ground" and tougher sentencing against those who committed violent crimes
- Enacted Florida's state ban on partial-birth abortion, stood up for the life of Terri Schiavo
- Enacted the nation's first statewide school voucher program and ended social promotion in third grade, the achievement gap was narrowed and reading scores improved
- Enacted worker's compensation reform
- Increased the property tax exemption for disabled veterans from $500 to $5,000
- Tripled the number of veteran's hospitals in Florida

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven track record. Florida.
[…]

you missed a couple letters there, let me fix it for you:

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven train wreck record. Florida.
[…]

much better

The Bush record:
- Reduced taxes by $19 billion, Florida was a leader in economic growth
- Increased state reserves by $8 billion
- One of two states to go to an AAA bond rating between 1999-2007
- Reduced the size of the state workforce by 10%, privatized state services
- Enacted medical liability reform
- Enacted medicaid reform with more private options, saving taxpayer dollars
- Signed into law "Stand Your Ground" and tougher sentencing against those who committed violent crimes
- Enacted Florida's state ban on partial-birth abortion, stood up for the life of Terri Schiavo
- Enacted the nation's first statewide school voucher program and ended social promotion in third grade, the achievement gap was narrowed and reading scores improved
- Enacted worker's compensation reform
- Increased the property tax exemption for disabled veterans from $500 to $5,000
- Tripled the number of veteran's hospitals in Florida

exactly. thank you for providing so many good examples.

[dudeabides]

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven track record. Florida.
[…]

you missed a couple letters there, let me fix it for you:

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven train wreck record. Florida.
[…]

much better

The Bush record:
- Reduced taxes by $19 billion, Florida was a leader in economic growth
- Increased state reserves by $8 billion
- One of two states to go to an AAA bond rating between 1999-2007
- Reduced the size of the state workforce by 10%, privatized state services
- Enacted medical liability reform
- Enacted medicaid reform with more private options, saving taxpayer dollars
- Signed into law "Stand Your Ground" and tougher sentencing against those who committed violent crimes
- Enacted Florida's state ban on partial-birth abortion, stood up for the life of Terri Schiavo
- Enacted the nation's first statewide school voucher program and ended social promotion in third grade, the achievement gap was narrowed and reading scores improved
- Enacted worker's compensation reform
- Increased the property tax exemption for disabled veterans from $500 to $5,000
- Tripled the number of veteran's hospitals in Florida

exactly. thank you for providing so many good examples.

So you believe poor kids deserve rotten schools, Terri Schiavo's cheating husband was moral, people shouldn't get jobs, and the government spends money better than the people. Okay.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven track record. Florida.
[…]

you missed a couple letters there, let me fix it for you:

Dudeabides and this author are of the many few hold-outs for Jeb Bush, the reason is, we recognise a thoroughbred when we see it.
Let's look at the line - up.
Bush, brand-name recognition,  a proven train wreck record. Florida.
[…]

much better

The Bush record:
- Reduced taxes by $19 billion, Florida was a leader in economic growth
- Increased state reserves by $8 billion
- One of two states to go to an AAA bond rating between 1999-2007
- Reduced the size of the state workforce by 10%, privatized state services
- Enacted medical liability reform
- Enacted medicaid reform with more private options, saving taxpayer dollars
- Signed into law "Stand Your Ground" and tougher sentencing against those who committed violent crimes
- Enacted Florida's state ban on partial-birth abortion, stood up for the life of Terri Schiavo
- Enacted the nation's first statewide school voucher program and ended social promotion in third grade, the achievement gap was narrowed and reading scores improved
- Enacted worker's compensation reform
- Increased the property tax exemption for disabled veterans from $500 to $5,000
- Tripled the number of veteran's hospitals in Florida

exactly. thank you for providing so many good examples.

So you believe poor kids deserve rotten schools, Terri Schiavo's cheating husband was moral, people shouldn't get jobs, and the government spends money better than the people. Okay.

hmmm… well, you certainly could (have) use(d) a better school. we'll leave that one open, i guess.