Who has the most to gain from the main debate on Wednesday?

[Torie]

If Carson can show more facility and depth on the issues, he will gain the most. It's amazing how far he's come without demonstrating any of that. Will he? I tend to doubt it, but maybe.

I don't think Walker has the capacity to get out of the robotic, scripted zone. Christie is too fat to be taken seriously. I mean that. He seems fatter than ever. Cruz is waiting for Trump to fade to inherit his support he thinks. But he can't afford to attack Trump himself, so he is kind of stuck in a waiting game. Kasich could gain a little if he gets off the Ohio story (which makes one's eyes glaze over, we already know he was a good governor, just like Jeb but this is about being an inspirational and capable leader to be POTUS), and starts outlining better where he wants to lead the nation, and articulates it well. Carly should gain a bit because I suspect she will be the most articulate candidate on the stage. I suspect Jeb! will fail to make much progress, because he will fall into the trap of attacking Trump, and fail to be very persuasive and articulate that he will be an effective leader. Trump will stay about where he is. I don't think the voters are ready yet to shut down the sitcom.

On balance, I don't think this debate will change much, except at the margins. Nobody likes Rand's presentation, and there is no room for Huckabee as long as folks are fascinated by Carson. Those two are just taking up space at this point. The kiddie debate with Fiorina gone will be a waste of time, which few will watch.

Anyway, I voted Carson, even though odds are he will not be much different than before, but one never knows. With the right performance, he could really gain momentum.