Who has the most to gain from the main debate on Wednesday?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

?

[ElectionsGuy]

Christie is the worst off, but considering Walker's situation, he really needs some good lines or else he's going to be out of the top tier for good. Voted Walker.

[Abraham Reagan]

Carly. She needs another bump; she's sinking back into pre-JV debate territory.

[Likely Voter]

It has to be Christie. He lucked himself into this debate by essentially being grandfathered in by old polls from July. This could very well be his last primetime debate. If he doesn't get into the CNBC debate I predict he will drop out due to lack of fundraising (unless he has some unlikely NH surge while simultaneously ranking out of the top 10 nationally?) And being ranked 11th and being way on the end means that Christie is likely to get very few questions so when he does he is going to go all out and I expect he will also try to interject himself into the debate even when not called on.

[Crumpets]

Rubio. He seems to be in the best place to establish himself as the establishment's go-to guy if Bush continues to collapse.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The answer will always be Kasich, because of all the candidates he currently has the most unrealized potential.

[WVdemocrat]

Walker. He has had an epic collapse and needs to reestablish himself as a true conservative pick and friendly to the establishment.

Also, Rubio needs, as has been said, to establish himself as the establishment alternative to Jeb! and Paul needs to resurge.

And that's not even mentioning that Trump has ~70% of the vote that he's not winning. He can change that.

[/]

Jeb!

[eric82oslo]

Chris Christie and Marco Rubio have the most to gain.
Scott Walker obviously has the most to lose as someone should kick his ass seriously.

[Mehmentum]

Cruz and Fiorina (went with Cruz). 

They both are very capable debaters, and benefited from the first debate (though not to the extent that Trump or Carson did).  They also fit the outsider image that's so popular among Republicans right now. If either of them hits it out of the park, I could see their numbers skyrocketing.

[dudeabides]

I would say three candidates are tied in this regard:

A. Jeb Bush - He held steady in the first debate, but he didn't stand out much.
B. Carly Fiorina - This is her chance to continue to surge
C. Marco Rubio - He has sought to be the foreign policy wonk in this race

[Suburbia]

Walker. If he cannot do well Wednesday night, then it is going to be problems.

[Vosem]

Christie has the least, and therefore has the most to gain.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

The answer will always be Kasich, because of all the candidates he currently has the most unrealized potential.

At one level, I agree with this.

I picked Huckabee.  He's been languishing because a number of his Evangelicals have drifted to Trump, Carson, and Cruz.  His campaign has been dragging due to a lack of focus.  On the other hand, he's playing to his strength on the Kim Davis issue, and there are a LOT of religious conservatives who feel the way he does.  Right now, Huck's out in front on the issue of religious liberty issue.  He has a chance to remind religious conservatives who he is and why they've been in his corner in the past.

Such movement on the part of religious conservatives could move Huckabee up to the point where he would be the Establishment's choice to stop Trump.  Indeed, there are some Evangelicals who've sided with Trump who may come home to Huckabee as Trump has pretty much rejected Kim Davis's stance.  Huckabee would need an opportunity to stress this issue in the debate, but if he does, he has the potential to shift significant numbers of Evangelicals into his column.

[eric82oslo]

The answer will always be Kasich, because of all the candidates he currently has the most unrealized potential.

I picked Huckabee.  

If Huckabee can't gain the world with Kim Davis, it's a lost case. The only option he has left then would be the atomic bomb. If you can't force your voters to agree with you, the only force you have left is basically to use military force. That's what Huckabee is slowly starting to realize these days.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Walker.  Either, he will continue to fall to nothing, or his campaign will have a "back-from-the-dead" moment, and both scenarios are completely plausible.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Walker.  Either, he will continue to fall to nothing, or his campaign will have a "back-from-the-dead" moment, and both scenarios are completely plausible.

Well, I hate Scott Walker, so I wish him the worst.  That being said, he might come back from the dead.  My own sense of this is that he's not real appealing and he's getting lost in the crowd.  He was overhyped and he really wasn't ready for the jump.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I have a feeling one person on that stage MAY drop out after a terrible debate performance. Which one? I don't know yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The problem with Huckabee is he's basically a moderate aside from social issues - he even raised taxes as governor. In the 2008 election, there was nowhere else for evangelicals to go, so they gravitated towards him. He would have done well in 2012, because evangelicals would only have Bachmann, Gingrich, or Santorum as alternatives, and Huckabee would have easily overshadowed those guys. But now evangelicals have real alternatives that have a legitimate shot at the nomination and actual staying power - Trump, Carson, Cruz, maybe Walker. So Huckabee gets kicked to the wayside.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I have a feeling one person on that stage MAY drop out after a terrible debate performance. Which one? I don't know yet.

I would suspect Christie, whose money and support is low. 

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I have a feeling one person on that stage MAY drop out after a terrible debate performance. Which one? I don't know yet.

I would suspect Christie, whose money and support is low. 

I hope it's Walker.

[eric82oslo]

The problem with Huckabee is he's basically a moderate aside from social issues - he even raised taxes as governor. In the 2008 election, there was nowhere else for evangelicals to go, so they gravitated towards him. He would have done well in 2012, because evangelicals would only have Bachmann, Gingrich, or Santorum as alternatives, and Huckabee would have easily overshadowed those guys. But now evangelicals have real alternatives that have a legitimate shot at the nomination and actual staying power - Trump, Carson, Cruz, maybe Walker. So Huckabee gets kicked to the wayside.

Trump claims that the Old Testament is better than the New one because it says nothing about Jesus (yet all about stoning, incest, bigamy and so on). Cruz, I've never ever heard utter a single word about the Bible. Walker would be easily way too stupid to understand a single world of what he read in the Bible. Unfortunately his dad was a priest and as a result he forces his entire family to live under Medieval rules (and his two kids absolutely hate him for it). The only guy actually smart enough to take advantage of this is obviously Carson.

[Mister Mets]

Depends on who does best.

Christie's in the most need of a breakout moment.

Rand Paul, Huckabee and Kasich are also in a precarious spot, especially if there are any future debates with less than ten candidates.

Trump has to keep his lead. Carson's closing in on Trump. Fiorina has outsider credentials, and friends in the establishment. She rose on the Top Ten on the strength of a performance in a debate with a fraction of the audience of the main one.

Walker's a poor debater, but he's hemmorhaging support, and expectations are low.

Marco Rubio is seen as well-positioned, but not the first choice of enough people. A strong performance can triple his poll numbers.

Ted Cruz wants to be the second choice of Trump's current supporters.

Jeb's bleeding support, and has to get voters to support him despite the last name. He has to impress them.

Everyone's got a lot to gain, and just as much to lose.

[Skye]

Bush easily.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich or Rubio