BC provincial election

[Hatman 🍁]

oooh wow. NDP won Cariboo South by one vote!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lib: 43 elected, leading in two others
NDP: 33 elected, leading one other

PV... Lib 45.98, NDP 41.18, Grn 9.08

[Gabu]

No w00tage for you. Gordon Campbell scares me, and should not be rewarded for driving drunk in Hawaii.

Actually, I honestly didn't really care that much when it happened, and his heartfelt speech about it in which he permanently swore off alcohol (a promise which he has kept to this day) actually improved my opinion of him on the whole.

oooh wow. NDP won Cariboo South by one vote!

I would imagine that would likely trigger an automatic recount.

[minionofmidas]

I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

Which in American political terms means the NDP is only left instead of far left and the Liberals are holding at center-left, correct?
*whistles innocently*

No, that is so overplayed. It's only a minor difference, and in BC, the liberals are the right wing party.
They have nothing to do with the national liberals.

I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

Which in American political terms means the NDP is only left instead of far left and the Liberals are holding at center-left, correct?
*whistles innocently*

No. The BC "Liberals"are nothing at all like the Federal Liberals, and have no ties with them.
The NDP is only left instead of far left, and the Liberals are right. Or possibly Center Right in American terms.

I think he's referring to them being compared to American politics, which I feel his analysis is actually accurate.

To all of you plus Gabu: you do know I was having some fun with you, right?

The reactions were interesting nonetheless.

I did...I reacted anyways...I mean, what the hell, why not...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP sweep the Island, with the exception of the retirement resorts and the more affluent suburbs. Good showing in the Interior as well; especially in the S.E (margins in some of those seats are huge) and Cariboo.
In the Lower Mainland, the NDP did very well in Surrey and the more working class parts of the Burnaby/Tri-Cities area (it's interesting to note that they won Burnaby-Edmonds, still largely working class, while narrowly failing to gain gentrified Burnaby North).

The following Cabinet members have been ousted:

Joyce Murray, New Westminster.
Graham Bruce, Cowichan-Ladysmith.
Roger Harris, Skeena.
Susan Mary Brice, Saanich South.
Brenda Locke, Surrey-Green Timbers.
Wendy McMahon, Columbia River-Revelstoke.
Patty Sahota, Burnaby-Edmonds.
Patrick Wong, Vancouver-Kensington.

Some by big margins

[minionofmidas]

Final Election Prediction Project numbers:

BC Liberals 50
NDP 29

Well, we did better than that.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC stopped counting the results 40 minutes ago: Liberals 45 (and leading in one other) and the NDP 33. Better than the pundits predicted.

As for the referendum, it looks like my prediction will come true (I guessed 55%-45%) Ha! This was based on two vague polls.

[jimrtex]

CBC stopped counting the results 40 minutes ago: Liberals 45 (and leading in one other) and the NDP 33. Better than the pundits predicted.

As for the referendum, it looks like my prediction will come true (I guessed 55%-45%) Ha! This was based on two vague polls.

The referendum result was extremely uniform, with a range of about 51% to 61%, and carrying all 35 ridings that have been counted on an overall 56%.   I think it highly unlikely to get tom 60%, when ony 4 of 35 ridings have done so so far.

The ridings where the referendum was extremely close, have big Liberal pluralities, in some cases upward of 20%.  The bigger wins on the referendum (ariound 60%) appear to be more mixed, with about 1/2 NDP wins, and the other half Liberal with a more modest plurality.

I would have guessed that Liberal voters might be more sympathetic based on their having initiated the whole process.

[Hatman 🍁]

I knew winning the riding quota would be easy, but getting the 60% was the hard part. I read that only one riding have a majority against. Pretty good. Too bad it didnt pass.

[jimrtex]

I knew winning the riding quota would be easy, but getting the 60% was the hard part. I read that only one riding have a majority against. Pretty good. Too bad it didnt pass.

2 of 69 that are counted, but both were at 49+%.   The two were in the Kamloops area.  The less-populated inland areas, where voters probably have a greater sense of have their own representative were supporting it, though a bit below the province-wide average.   In some cases the single member ridings are kind of odd in order to balance populations, so where it looks like three huge regular shaped areas, it is really a small city split into 2 or 3 parts, which then extend a 100 miles into almost uninhabited wilderness.

There was a very large variation of support within Vancouver, which I would like to understand.   I would think that voters there might tend to consider all the MLAs of their party as being their representative.

Support on the referendum was extremely uniform, much more so than the party election.   Support in NDP areas was a bit higher, but more to suggest that NDP voters were 70% in favor, while Liberal voters were around 50%.    Or there could be other factors at work as well.  NDP voters as a whole will have keen understanding of how a party with a large share of the popular vote can end up with few (2 of 79 seats at the previous election), but Liberals in stronger NDP areas might also share in that.  If you can only carry a riding when your party has a 77 to 2 majority, you might want something different than FPTP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I knew winning the riding quota would be easy, but getting the 60% was the hard part. I read that only one riding have a majority against. Pretty good. Too bad it didnt pass.

2 of 69 that are counted, but both were at 49+%.   The two were in the Kamloops area.  The less-populated inland areas, where voters probably have a greater sense of have their own representative were supporting it, though a bit below the province-wide average.   In some cases the single member ridings are kind of odd in order to balance populations, so where it looks like three huge regular shaped areas, it is really a small city split into 2 or 3 parts, which then extend a 100 miles into almost uninhabited wilderness.

There was a very large variation of support within Vancouver, which I would like to understand.   I would think that voters there might tend to consider all the MLAs of their party as being their representative.

Support on the referendum was extremely uniform, much more so than the party election.   Support in NDP areas was a bit higher, but more to suggest that NDP voters were 70% in favor, while Liberal voters were around 50%.    Or there could be other factors at work as well.  NDP voters as a whole will have keen understanding of how a party with a large share of the popular vote can end up with few (2 of 79 seats at the previous election), but Liberals in stronger NDP areas might also share in that.  If you can only carry a riding when your party has a 77 to 2 majority, you might want something different than FPTP.

Strange why Kamloops was against it. Maybe they like being the Bellwether ridings? Odd, I would have figured the Peace River area would have been against it.  The results, I must say are facinating. I can't quite seem to put much analysis into it.

here is a good map:

[WMS]

To all of you plus Gabu: you do know I was having some fun with you, right?

The reactions were interesting nonetheless.

I did...I reacted anyways...I mean, what the hell, why not...

Why not indeed! I just remember how much fun it is every time an American says 'Ralph Nader would be a conservative in Europe/Canada because they're so far left' and the reactions of the Europeans and Canadians.

[jimrtex]

Strange why Kamloops was against it. Maybe they like being the Bellwether ridings? Odd, I would have figured the Peace River area would have been against it.  The results, I must say are facinating. I can't quite seem to put much analysis into it.

I wonder if any prototype maps of the multi-seat ridings had been published.  In the Peace River area, they might have shown a 2-seat Peace River riding.  Or in the Prince Georges area 3-seat district.  While the districts are large, people are accustomed to such sized districts (federal ridings?).

But perhaps someone had suggested a 5-seat Middle Fraser district, and perhaps the people in Kamloops didn't really accept that idea.  Or it could be some other regional phenomena.  Most of the other ridings in the area were lightest green.   Other than the size of the ridings, the regional concentrations is similar to that in the Vancouver area, where you have the high support northern area, the low support area to the south. and the moderate support area in the east.

What is the socio-economic nature of those areas in Vancouver?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange why Kamloops was against it. Maybe they like being the Bellwether ridings? Odd, I would have figured the Peace River area would have been against it.  The results, I must say are facinating. I can't quite seem to put much analysis into it.

I wonder if any prototype maps of the multi-seat ridings had been published.  In the Peace River area, they might have shown a 2-seat Peace River riding.  Or in the Prince Georges area 3-seat district.  While the districts are large, people are accustomed to such sized districts (federal ridings?).

But perhaps someone had suggested a 5-seat Middle Fraser district, and perhaps the people in Kamloops didn't really accept that idea.  Or it could be some other regional phenomena.  Most of the other ridings in the area were lightest green.   Other than the size of the ridings, the regional concentrations is similar to that in the Vancouver area, where you have the high support northern area, the low support area to the south. and the moderate support area in the east.

What is the socio-economic nature of those areas in Vancouver?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To answer your first question, yes there have. Check this out: http://bc.demochoice.org/

As for Vancouver, I believe there is a strong East/West divide in the city- with the east being left wing and the west being more centrist.  "Downtown Eastside" is a very notorious neighbourhoods, as being one of the worst neighbourhoods in Canada because of all the crimes and drug problems. Both NDP seats won in 2001 were in East Vancouver.

[WMS]

You shouldn't flip coins to make such crucial decisions.

I've heard way too many conflicting arguments both ways, all of which sounded valid, to make up my mind any other way.  I would probably have been in favor of it if it was strictly preferential voting with no other changes, but the gigantic riding idea coupled with other stuff I didn't particularly like made me much less sure that this was a good idea.

*whistles innocently at Gabu*

[2952-0-0]

Too bad the STV thing failed. Hopefully Campbell restarts another Citizen's Assembly and they find another option.