BC provincial election

[2952-0-0]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election%2C_2005

Latest poll (Robbins SCE) NDP 40% Liberal 39% Green 13% other 8%

I predict NDP to pick up at least 30 seats but Liberals will win, maybe 50ish to 30 ish.

It's debate time!!!

VICTORIA (CP) -- NDP Leader Carole James has a golden opportunity Tuesday to use a televised election debate to introduce herself to B.C. voters, say experts who have watched the rookie leader on her first provincewide campaign.
 
British Columbians have had few chances to see James, who does not hold a seat in the B.C. legislature, square off against her main political opponents, Premier Gordon Campbell and Green Leader Adriane Carr.
 
James, who was elected NDP leader less than two years ago, can use the debate to heat up what observers have described as a slow election campaign by British Columbia standards.
 
"It's an enormous opportunity for Carole James," David Schreck, a former NDP MLA and party adviser, said Monday.
 
"And I think Campbell would just a soon eat a can of worms than show up to that debate. It's not part of his game plan, but there's no way he can get out of it."
 
Carr, whose Greens do not hold a seat in the legislature, is the unofficial debate winner before the questions even start because she gets to highlight her party's environmentalist message, Schreck said.
 
The hour-long debate starts at 7 p.m. PDT and will be shown live in the province by several stations.
 
Televised election debates in British Columbia are usually tame affairs when compared with the rough, rude and sometimes ridiculous barbs that mark debates inside the B.C. legislature.
 
But there have been knockout punches in B.C. during televised debates.
 
The most celebrated occurred in 1991 when former Liberal leader Gordon Wilson floored then Social Credit premier Rita Johnston and NDP leader Mike Harcourt with one sentence.
 
As Harcourt and Johnston bickered, Wilson interjected, telling viewers they were witnessing an example of why nothing ever gets done in British Columbia. The comment catapulted Wilson's Liberals from no seats in the house to 17 MLAs and official opposition status.
 
Carr has the potential to pull off this election's version of the Wilson moment, but on a smaller scale, said Norman Ruff of the University of Victoria.
 
Carr appears to be campaigning for political survival and if she can't win a seat, her leadership could be in trouble, he said.
 
"She's got the least to lose, but paradoxically she's got the most at stake. Her leadership is going to be on the line."
 
Ruff said he will be watching James, looking for signals of where the NDP is going with its campaign.
 
An aggressive James is a sign the New Democrats sense they can win more seats and may even believe they can defeat the Liberals, he said.
 
A calm and warm James is an indication the party is satisfied with its current progress and is willing to settle for second place, but with an increased opposition.
 
The NDP, after the humiliating 2001 election loss that left the party with two seats, held three seats in the 79-seat legislature at dissolution.
 
Ruff predicts the NDP will win at least 20 seats, but the number could go higher depending on James's performance in the debate and the remaining two weeks of the campaign.
 
Prior to the election, one NDP official said the party would be happy with 30 seats and the strong opposition bench those numbers provide.
 
"The NDP might try a foray to gain some ground against the Liberals," Ruff said. "It's a question of whether Carole James is content to take 20 seats or whether she really does want to form a government or come much closer to forming a government."
 
Campbell's goal in the debate is to appear leader-like while facing attacks about his government's integrity from both James and Carr, he said.
 
"He's got to appear to be first ministerial, a reliable dependent leader," said Ruff.
 
Campbell's leadership skills and debate experience will be his greatest asset during the debate, said Christy Clark, a former Liberal cabinet minister who quit politics prior to the election.
 
"That's a real advantage for him," she said. "It's a real weakness for James."
 
Clark said Campbell must also stay above the fray that James and Carr will attempt to generate.
 
"He's got to stay out of the muck," she said. "He's got to state his case over all of the misinformation that the other parties are going to be throwing at him."

[2952-0-0]

As much as I hate the Liberals I have jitters about the NDP's socialistic policies. If I could vote I would support the Greens and I would vote for the proposition. The BC Liberals are not related to the Paul Martin people but the NDP is related to the federal NDP. I predict that my seat (Victoria Hillside) will flip to NDP because it was close in the last election.

[minionofmidas]

What's that proposition business?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An attempt to introduce STV for provincial elections IIRC

[minionofmidas]

Okay, voted. It seems you haven't yet, btw.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Go Liberals! / Yes!

[2952-0-0]

http://www.cbc.ca/bcvotes2005/

Liberals headed for a win

[Jake]

Liberal and a strong no on the proposition. STV is one of my least favorite voting system for anything above council elections.

[Gabu]

I got an absentee ballot, so I've already voted.

I voted for Ida Chong (Liberal) and I was so undecided on the STV proposition that I literally flipped a coin over it.  I ended up voting no.

[2952-0-0]

I ended up voting no.

BOOOO!!!!

[jimrtex]

I voted for Ida Chong (Liberal) and I was so undecided on the STV proposition that I literally flipped a coin over it.  I ended up voting no.

Aren't you supposed to put a 1 or 2 next to the Yes and No indicating your first and second preference?

[Gabu]

I voted for Ida Chong (Liberal) and I was so undecided on the STV proposition that I literally flipped a coin over it.  I ended up voting no.

Aren't you supposed to put a 1 or 2 next to the Yes and No indicating your first and second preference?

Not unless the proposition had retroactively passed before passing, which would create a few logistical conundrums.

[Hatman 🍁]

I ended up voting no.

BOOOO!!!!

Yeah, you suck Gabu!

It will be interesting because from what I hear on the media over here, british columbians have no idea what BC-STV is, so who knows where the Apathy vote will go. My predictions for that will be 55%-45% in favour, which means it will fail (needs 60%).

[minionofmidas]

How large are the constituencies under STV going tobe?

[Hatman 🍁]

How large are the constituencies under STV going tobe?

It would vary from 2 to 7 seats per region according to the simulation at http://bc.demochoice.org/

Just a reminder, polls close at 8pm Pacific Time, which is GMT +8, or 11pm on the East Coast.

[Gabu]

I ended up voting no.

BOOOO!!!!

Yeah, you suck Gabu!

Hey, blame the coin.

[Hatman 🍁]

I ended up voting no.

BOOOO!!!!

Yeah, you suck Gabu!

Hey, blame the coin.

You shouldn't flip coins to make such crucial decisions.

I would personally vote yes, because it is an improvement over FPTP, but it's still not a very good replacement. I also say BOO for voting for the Liberals. I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

[WMS]

I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

Which in American political terms means the NDP is only left instead of far left and the Liberals are holding at center-left, correct?
*whistles innocently*

[Gabu]

You shouldn't flip coins to make such crucial decisions.

I've heard way too many conflicting arguments both ways, all of which sounded valid, to make up my mind any other way.  I would probably have been in favor of it if it was strictly preferential voting with no other changes, but the gigantic riding idea coupled with other stuff I didn't particularly like made me much less sure that this was a good idea.

I also say BOO for voting for the Liberals. I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

Personally, I can't stand Carole James.  From everything that I've seen of her, I have exactly zero confidence that she would make anywhere near a decent premier.  I don't entirely see how her plan would be economically sustainable; her platform seems to be mostly that she plans to spend the excess money that the Liberals have created without any inkling regarding what she's going to do once it's gone.

I feel that BC is in good enough shape, and I simply have not been convinced that we should get rid of Campbell and replace him with James.

[Bono]

I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

Which in American political terms means the NDP is only left instead of far left and the Liberals are holding at center-left, correct?
*whistles innocently*

No, that is so overplayed. It's only a minor difference, and in BC, the liberals are the right wing party.
They have nothing to do with the national liberals.

[minionofmidas]

I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

Which in American political terms means the NDP is only left instead of far left and the Liberals are holding at center-left, correct?
*whistles innocently*

No. The BC "Liberals"are nothing at all like the Federal Liberals, and have no ties with them.
The NDP is only left instead of far left, and the Liberals are right. Or possibly Center Right in American terms.

[Gabu]

I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

Which in American political terms means the NDP is only left instead of far left and the Liberals are holding at center-left, correct?
*whistles innocently*

No. The BC "Liberals"are nothing at all like the Federal Liberals, and have no ties with them.
The NDP is only left instead of far left, and the Liberals are right. Or possibly Center Right in American terms.

I wouldn't put them in quote-marks; it's just more that they're liberals in the classical sense of the word, rather than the modern North American sense.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, I sometimes put the American usage in quotation marks as well.
In this case, the quotation marks are there because they're so different from the Federal Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been following the campaign, and it would appear the NDP under Ms. James has taken a sharp turn to the right.  Whereas the Liberals are way out in right field.

Which in American political terms means the NDP is only left instead of far left and the Liberals are holding at center-left, correct?
*whistles innocently*

No. The BC "Liberals"are nothing at all like the Federal Liberals, and have no ties with them.
The NDP is only left instead of far left, and the Liberals are right. Or possibly Center Right in American terms.

I think he's referring to them being compared to American politics, which I feel his analysis is actually accurate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

B.C's party system is very interesting; it's basically the only Canadian province (with the exception of P.E.I. And sorta Sask...) to have a two party system. The BC Liberals aren't affliated at all with the Federal Liberals (although IIRC Gordon Campbell supports them) and are made up of the Social Crediters who didn't end up in prison, the old BC Liberal Party (well... most of it) and various ex-Reform/CA types.
The BC NDP is also pretty diverse; there's a big division between the far left near Greenie wing and the old fashioned blue collar wing; a bitter irony of the vicious logging disputes of the early '90's is that both the loggers and the protesters had, by and large, voted for the same party in the most recent provincial elections. Last I heard the BC NDP were playing more to the latter in the hope of picking up a load of seats on the Island and in parts of the Interior (in other words the areas struggling economically).