MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[jamestroll]

Petersen was never going to beat Hawley, and even though his campaign really hasn’t been all that impressive, I still think this is the second most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats (after IN). Tossup.

Cort Vanostran is the nominee for MO-02 and Dem primary vote has well exceed GOP vote there.

and Yes I agree.. McCaskill could lose

I feel like this will remain somewhere in the Hawley +3 to McCaskill +3 range unless the national environment improves for Republicans. Definitely one of the most difficult races to predict. I think Galloway is probably slightly favored, though.

yes!!

And Cort will defeat ann wagner! w000t!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dangit, Clay won.

[AtorBoltox]

Does the result of the rtw referendum say anything about this race?

[Dr. Arch]

Does the result of the rtw referendum say anything about this race?

At the least, it says the Republican platform on worker's rights is not well received at all. McCaskill can run with this, and, given how politically savvy she is, she certainly will (along other issues).

[Sestak]

Dangit, Clay won.

What's wrong with Clay?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dangit, Clay won.

What's wrong with Clay?

I'm still angry about how he treated Cohen over a decade back and does not apologize, I think he is a bigot.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So apparently all of Petersen's supporters were on Twitter.

Haha right?

[IceSpear]

In 2012, Dems cast ~290k votes and the GOP cast ~603k, more than double. This time it is ~606k vs. ~664k.

RATINGS CHANGE: Safe R in 2012 -> Safe D in 2018

[IceSpear]

Hawley is so pathetic lol. He still might win anyway though just because of how the rurals don't like black people kneeling even as they vote to keep their union rights with 3-1 margins.

How come you're pessimistic about Air Claire's chances? I'm not convinced she'll win or anything, but I'm far more worried about Heitkamp and (especially) Donnelly.

[jamestroll]

Sometimes I feel like writing MO-Sen off. No doubt it will be tight but I just cant see Claire pulling across the finish line. Still I know that is a silly idea as I can see the logic of why people think Claire may have a tiny advantage.

I find MO-Auditor and MO-02 (if an incumbent R was not in it) a lot more winnable.

[Adam Griffin]

Dem ballots were 73% of the total in St Louis County: is that...normal? Seems very high relative to the usual margins. It doesn't strike me as a county where masses of GOP voters would be pulling DEM ballots to influence local contests.

At any rate, the final figure statewide was 52.3% GOP, 47.7% DEM:

[jamestroll]

Dem ballots were 73% of the total in St Louis County: is that...normal? Seems very high relative to the usual margins. It doesn't strike me as a county where masses of GOP voters would be pulling DEM ballots to influence local contests.

At any rate, the final figure statewide was 52.3% GOP, 47.7% DEM:

Griff,

You see why I believe MO-02 is a very winnable district for us correct?

I have been getting tons of flak for it ever since Dec 2016.

[Gass3268]

Dem ballots were 73% of the total in St Louis County: is that...normal? Seems very high relative to the usual margins. It doesn't strike me as a county where masses of GOP voters would be pulling DEM ballots to influence local contests.

At any rate, the final figure statewide was 52.3% GOP, 47.7% DEM:

Maybe there was some conservative crossover into the DA's race to support the guy who didn't charge the officer in the Michael Brown shooting? He lost btw.

[GlobeSoc]

Dem ballots were 73% of the total in St Louis County: is that...normal? Seems very high relative to the usual margins. It doesn't strike me as a county where masses of GOP voters would be pulling DEM ballots to influence local contests.

At any rate, the final figure statewide was 52.3% GOP, 47.7% DEM:

that statewide total makes me hope for a relative D wave on the state legislative level this November in MO

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hawley and McCaskill are both trading some heavy punches on twitter, can't wait for their debate tomorrow, should be very good, go Claire!!

[IceSpear]

Hawley is so pathetic lol. He still might win anyway though just because of how the rurals don't like black people kneeling even as they vote to keep their union rights with 3-1 margins.

How come you're pessimistic about Air Claire's chances? I'm not convinced she'll win or anything, but I'm far more worried about Heitkamp and (especially) Donnelly.

Why?

ND is far more Republican than MO and Cramer is a stronger opponent than Hawley (though that's not saying much.) You could argue Heitkamp is a stronger candidate and more personally popular than McCaskill which I'd agree with, but overall I'd bet on McCaskill winning before I'd bet on Heitkamp.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Will the pledge of the new Democrat nominee for prosecutor in St. Louis County to repoen the Ferguson Michael Brown case have any effect on the Senate race?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Will the pledge of the new Democrat nominee for prosecutor in St. Louis County to repoen the Ferguson Michael Brown case have any effect on the Senate race?

No lol

[OneJ]

Will the pledge of the new Democrat nominee for prosecutor in St. Louis County to repoen the Ferguson Michael Brown case have any effect on the Senate race?

Are you kidding me? I hope so because every time you post it’s almost always ridiculous.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Will the pledge of the new Democrat nominee for prosecutor in St. Louis County to repoen the Ferguson Michael Brown case have any effect on the Senate race?

Are you kidding me? I hope so because every time you post it’s almost always ridiculous.

Actually my wife thinks it will motivate blacks to vote.

[Bidenworth2020]

Will the pledge of the new Democrat nominee for prosecutor in St. Louis County to repoen the Ferguson Michael Brown case have any effect on the Senate race?

Are you kidding me? I hope so because every time you post it’s almost always ridiculous.

Actually my wife thinks it will motivate blacks to vote.

Blacks are very inelastic, and they support their people. Marilyn Mosby (Baltimore city DA) didn't do crap with the Freddie Gray situation. she easily got re-elected in the primary

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will the pledge of the new Democrat nominee for prosecutor in St. Louis County to repoen the Ferguson Michael Brown case have any effect on the Senate race?

Are you kidding me? I hope so because every time you post it’s almost always ridiculous.

Actually my wife thinks it will motivate blacks to vote.

Blacks are very inelastic, and they support their people. Marilyn Mosby (Baltimore city DA) didn't do crap with the Freddie Gray situation. she easily got re-elected in the primary

Didn't she prosecute all the officers involved? She can't help that they were acquitted. She brought forth a flimsy case out of public pressure to begin with.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://freebeacon.com/politics/missouri-farmers-bureau-slams-mccaskill-endorses-hawley/

OOF

[MycroftCZ]

This race is getting NASTY. Hawley just posted on his Insta story a video of the McCaskill campaign bus driving past his stupid "Let's Debate" trailer. Hawley yells, "Where you going Claire?" with the caption, "Plane to catch?".

[Ebsy]

No one actually cares who the farm bureau endorses. See: 2016.