Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

They are still heading for their second-best result in history, though.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair is in a competitive race, but he was in 2008 as well. I will predict that Duceppe loses in LSM.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

The question is also whether he'll be re-elected in the first place.

I think he will, I don't think the uniform swing in Quebec will be enough that allows Outremont to go anything other than NDP. It would take a hefty swing to the Liberals for him to fall, after all he won the riding with over 30%, then again, I haven't been following it in depth, so I could be wrong of course.

[Vosem]

Again, so long as Mulcair wins his own riding and the New Democrats come in first place in Quebec, I feel fairly confident that he will remain. The New Democrats' second-best result in terms of seats, 1988, is 43. I suppose that's another number he has to clear, but I think that won't be too much of a problem.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

EKOS shows a dead national heat while the Grits still lead comfortably in ON.

Joke pollster

[DL]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

It would be completely up to him, there really aren't any "factions" in the party who would want to pressure him to quit and there is no rival for the leadership who would be plotting behind the scenes. For a leader to be forced out there usually has to be a viable successor waiting in the wings

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

It would be completely up to him, there really aren't any "factions" in the party who would want to pressure him to quit and there is no rival for the leadership who would be plotting behind the scenes. For a leader to be forced out there usually has to be a viable successor waiting in the wings

If he lost his seat, I'm sure that would change the dynamics. I must admit, for the most part they ran a good campaign until the niqab "issue" came to light and Mulcair didn't really give a good response to it. But I think the main factor that is driving the current dynamics is that the left is really desperate to get rid of Harper so they're siding with the leftist party who was polling highest (aka the Liberals) against Harper. Also the shift in Liberal/NDP positions kind of harmed the NDP IMO.

[MaxQue]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

It would be completely up to him, there really aren't any "factions" in the party who would want to pressure him to quit and there is no rival for the leadership who would be plotting behind the scenes. For a leader to be forced out there usually has to be a viable successor waiting in the wings

Talking of that, anyone has news of Brian Topp? He said he would run somewhere in Quebec in 2015, but no news since then.

[136or142]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

It would be completely up to him, there really aren't any "factions" in the party who would want to pressure him to quit and there is no rival for the leadership who would be plotting behind the scenes. For a leader to be forced out there usually has to be a viable successor waiting in the wings

Talking of that, anyone has news of Brian Topp? He said he would run somewhere in Quebec in 2015, but no news since then.

He's Alberta Premier Rachel Notley's Chief of Staff.

[cp]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

It would be completely up to him, there really aren't any "factions" in the party who would want to pressure him to quit and there is no rival for the leadership who would be plotting behind the scenes. For a leader to be forced out there usually has to be a viable successor waiting in the wings

If he lost his seat, I'm sure that would change the dynamics. I must admit, for the most part they ran a good campaign until the niqab "issue" came to light and Mulcair didn't really give a good response to it. But I think the main factor that is driving the current dynamics is that the left is really desperate to get rid of Harper so they're siding with the leftist party who was polling highest (aka the Liberals) against Harper. Also the shift in Liberal/NDP positions kind of harmed the NDP IMO.

Agreed on both counts.

I think that's why Mulcair is more likely than not to stick around for one more election, especially if Trudeau only gets a minority. Mulcair may have had his shot at coalescing the anti-Harper vote around the NDP, but once it became clear that wasn't going to happen, it wasn't really his fault he couldn't recuperate. So long as the NDP gets 50+ seats and holds on to a sizable chunk of its Quebec caucus, Mulcair should be fine (assuming he wins his seat; if he doesn't, all bets are off).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Just a quick question to the Canadians on here: when you guys count the vote is it similar to how the British do it you know count all the votes and then the returning officer reveals the winner or is it similar to ours here in the states where you have precincts one by one come in for a partial then total count?

[DC Al Fine]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

The question is also whether he'll be re-elected in the first place.

I think he will, I don't think the uniform swing in Quebec will be enough that allows Outremont to go anything other than NDP. It would take a hefty swing to the Liberals for him to fall, after all he won the riding with over 30%, then again, I haven't been following it in depth, so I could be wrong of course.

Quebec is so regionally divided that uniform swing is pretty useless to use. There are huge swathes of voters in each region that are inaccessible to each party. Tory gains will never show up much in East Montreal. Bloc gains won't show up in West Montreal etc. Anyway Outremont is the sort of place where the Liberals could see an outsized gain compared to their gain in the province as a whole. That said, I still think Mulcair holds on fine.

Just a quick question to the Canadians on here: when you guys count the vote is it similar to how the British do it you know count all the votes and then the returning officer reveals the winner or is it similar to ours here in the states where you have precincts one by one come in for a partial then total count?

Results are released bit by bit.

[Panhandle Progressive]

According to the major pollsters it appears that:
The Grits/NDP coalition should have between 212 and 224 combined seats. Somewhere in neighborhood of 62.7% and 66.2% of all (338) seats available.

Just came across this link for live results on election night:
http://www.cbc.ca/includes/federalelection/dashboard/index.html

[RogueBeaver]

Morning Nanos: 37.3/30.5/22.1. We'll get the final Nanos at 11PM, final Ipsos later today.

[cp]

What's the timetable for election day? When do polls open/close in the different time zones? Will there be any exit polling beforehand?

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the closing schedule. Ipsos usually does an exit poll.

[jaichind]

Here's the closing schedule. Ipsos usually does an exit poll.

Is Ipsos allowed to release exit polls results from, say, Newfoundland and Atlantic, at 8:30PM when the rest of Canada is voting ?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Anyone know where I can get coverage of this? I live in Tallahassee now and my building has the worst cable provider ever, so I don't have access to C-SPAN or C-SPAN 3 (which I'm sure will cover it). I assume the CBC will have a decent broadcast online?

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone know where I can get coverage of this? I live in Tallahassee now and my building has the worst cable provider ever, so I don't have access to C-SPAN or C-SPAN 3 (which I'm sure will cover it). I assume the CBC will have a decent broadcast online?

Yes

Scroll down. They'll have several different live streams on election night.

[cp]

Here's the closing schedule. Ipsos usually does an exit poll.

Thanks for the link!

I may be reading this incorrectly, but with the staggered closing times in different time zones, every poll in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and all but one in Quebec will close at the same moment (9:30 EDT). That's going to make for a hectic few minutes of election-watching!

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS is doing 2 polls today.

[DC Al Fine]

One last riding poll from Think HQ

Edmonton Centre
36-33-24

[AndyJS]

There doesn't seem to be a site anywhere with all of the redistributed Canadian riding results on one page. As usual there are lots of places where you can look at them one by one which is a bit annoying if you're interested in more than one constituency.

I've put together a spreadsheet with all the redistributed results on one page:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Nqs8lrKYeN06aXEV3YAguk9fCaMSLDnrvMh7pcn4KV4/edit#gid=0

[Njall]

One of my profs is doing another case study about the correlation between number of lawn signs on private property and election results..  This time they're looking at Calgary Centre.  The reason that I bring this up is that the article highlights Kent Hehr's significant apparent sign advantage over Joan Crockatt, as Hehr has 1,191 signs on private property while Crockatt has 791.  This could be especially telling for how the election in Calgary Centre will go, as most of the counted signs would have come from the parts of the riding outside of downtown (the neighborhoods largely made up of single-detached houses), which are also the neighborhoods that Hehr did not represent as a provincial MLA.  Calgary-Buffalo, which was Hehr's provincial riding, is mostly made up of downtown and the Beltline, where the vast majority of housing is in condos and apartment buildings, and where lawn signs don't exist to help determine voter intentions.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 38/31/22.