Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How factional are the three main parties? I'm wondering about the potential for post-election infighting, especially amongst the Tories and Oranges.

[2952-0-0]

The Conservatives have been remarkably tight-knit, held together either by the promise of a majority or the reality of government. But occasionally there are rebellions by its Reform wing: sometimes backbench MPs vow to study the definition of life, which Harper always moves quickly to quash. Or, when Reformists propose to change the rules that elect a new leader.

The Conservative Party simply has never existed without Harper. We'll wait and see. But if Jason Kenney tries to rig the game to favour himself, there'll be a pushback.

[2952-0-0]

From Ekos:

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[Pragmatic Conservative]

Two questions
Who do you see as most likely successors for the Conservative party leadership if Harper steps down, Peter McKay Jason Kenny Brad wall joe Oliver if he wins,

Second do you see Ralph goodel returning to minister of finance if the liberals win.

[cp]

It's possible, but he's a bit old - not in the sense of age but in the sense of 'not a new face'. I imagine Trudeau will have enough talent to draw upon to be able to name a fresh face to that important post. I think he's got a Bay St. type running for him in Ontario; can't remember the name though.

As for the Tories, Jason Kenney seems to be the man with the smart money on him, but it's worth mentioning that the only person who has expressed openly an interest in running for the leadership of the Tories is Rob Ford.

[DC Al Fine]

How factional are the three main parties? I'm wondering about the potential for post-election infighting, especially amongst the Tories and Oranges.

The Tory side has been answered already.

The NDP are remarkably forgiving of their leaders. Sure they have their factions, but there hasn't been anything close to the fights UK Labour takes for granted.

Whenever Mulcair quits, the lefties will complain about how they got out lefted, the centrists will whine about how they need to stay in the center to win power... And then they'll pick a leader and stick behind them for 5-10 years.

[DavidB.]

As for the Tories, Jason Kenney seems to be the man with the smart money on him, but it's worth mentioning that the only person who has expressed openly an interest in running for the leadership of the Tories is Rob Ford.

lmao

That will certainly change the Tories' stance on drug legalization.

[DC Al Fine]

As for the Tories, Jason Kenney seems to be the man with the smart money on him, but it's worth mentioning that the only person who has expressed openly an interest in running for the leadership of the Tories is Rob Ford.

lmao

That will certainly change the Tories' stance on drug legalization.

Its actually his baby brother Doug Ford, who wants the job. He is slightly thinner and has no videos of crack smoking, but has  the same politics as big brother Rob.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger: 38/30/22. Grits lead in BC/ON while there's a 3-way tie among Francophones here. Tories strong in Quebec City as usual.

Mainstreet: 38/33/23.

Nanos: 37/30.7/22.6.

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals up 6% in Quebec according to RB's favorite poster... That would make for an interesting election night.

[DavidB.]

Would these numbers lead to a Liberal majority?

[RogueBeaver]

BC and Quebec aren't strong enough for that.

[2952-0-0]

Same is true in the Prairies. Outside Ontario and the Maritimes the Liberals have very few chances outside the major cities. If they're sneaky enough to introduce AV, then they really have a good chance at becoming once again the Natural Governing Party. Which is why I think that will happen.

Edit: and even if many four way races in Quebec are narrowly won by the Liberals *and* they reach Chretien-level support in Ontario, they're still short of a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course that tangent wrt AV presumes that Biebertrudeau-in-Government would not be a hot mess, which is perhaps not certain. And the Liberal Party no longer has the depth of support it used to, even if (as this campaign has amply demonstrated) it still has the potential breadth. I don't think the Canadian electorate is going to fall into any pattern - other than volatility with a degree of political stability nevertheless - again, or at least not for a long time.

[2952-0-0]

Sure, but as long as they're the second choice of a sufficient number of voters to their left and right, they will at least always hold the balance of power even when not in government. Of course if their campaign is as awful as 2011...

[RogueBeaver]

Conrad Black endorses Justin. Given last week's column, not surprising.

[Holmes]

Wasn't Conran Black happy in 2011 that the Liberals were in third and applauded the new "two-party system"? Or am I thinking of someone else?

[2952-0-0]

Conrad Black endorses Justin. Given last week's column, not surprising.

I LOL'd at the Black-like phrase he used to describe Harper.

[adma]

Its actually his baby brother Doug Ford, who wants the job. He is slightly thinner and has no videos of crack smoking, but has  the same politics as big brother Rob.

Other way around.  DoFo's the big brother, RoFo's the baby.  (Chronological, not personality-wise--then again...)

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS shows a dead national heat while the Grits still lead comfortably in ON.

[Ebsy]

Hopefully EKOS ends up being terribly wrong, as usual.

[DC Al Fine]

I noticed Harper was in Laval today. That's weird whether the Tories are playing offence or defense.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CBC poll average: 36.4/31.3/22.5/4.7/4.5 the New Democrats had the biggest shift since it was updated down 1.1%

Seat projection: 140/120/74/3/1

Thinks aren't looking good for the New Democrats are they? They have been falling like a rock since about Sept 17th. Looks like we're heading to a Liberal government with Tory opposition then.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

[DavidB.]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

The question is also whether he'll be re-elected in the first place.