Reuters primary polling: tracking thread.

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Wow, already a third of the people who would vote. Weird that they counted wouldn't vote in.

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So Sanders actually lost ground in this? None of the real national polls are showing that. Junk poll!

Online Ipsos polls have a C+ rating from 538. CNN has an A-. I'll go with that CNN poll.

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Good things about this poll: It's great to see Sanders only 8 points down. Also, this is our first poll that is mostly post Labor day, although it does include Labor day.

Bad things: not the best pollster, and a little odd that it already includes today.

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With non-whites, it's

Clinton 42
Sanders 30
Biden 20

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Even though the tracking poll includes weekends, I guess they don't update it on weekends.

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Wow, Sanders has totally collapsed since last week in this poll. From only single digits behind Clinton to about twenty points behind!!

Geez, and that's including Biden!

Probably just moving out a bad simple.

I think it's hilarious that anti-Sanders posters are now hyping polls that include Biden where Sanders is at 25.2%. It's not too long ago that would have been considered an amazing poll for Sanders. As recently as August 27th, this daily tracking poll had never had Sanders that high.

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It was updated again today.

Clinton 43.6
Sanders 28.0
Biden 16.8

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This poll has a lot less noise if you switch to it by the month.
Last month had 4690 responses (MOE is 1.4%)
Clinton 43.3
Sanders 27.2
Biden 15.9

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#s for Oct. 3-7:

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14945

Dems

Clinton 44%
Sanders 27%
Biden 18%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%

3-way:

Clinton 42%
Sanders 29%
Biden 23%
(Huh?  The exclusion of Chafee and O’Malley from the list causes Clinton voters to defect to Biden and Sanders?)

For some reason the 3-way has a much smaller sample size.

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Wow, some major fall for Hillary.
Oct 4: 51.1%
Oct 9: 40.9%

We have
Clinton 40.9
Sanders 27.6
Biden 20.0
O' Malley 2.6
Chafee 1.1

Also, did they take Webb out?

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Hillary and Bernie both up, Biden down. Makes sense. He better get in soon.

NBC has Biden down to 10%.

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In the tracking poll, Hillary's lead has decreased since the debate.

Oct 13:

Clinton 49.9
Sanders 22.6
Biden 16.3
O' Malley 1.3
Chafee 1.0

Oct 20:

Clinton 48.6
Sanders 25.9
Biden 14.5
O' Malley 1.0
Chafee 0.8

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Clinton 47%
Sanders 31%
Biden 11%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%

Without Biden, Hillary would lead about 54-33. Not that bad for Bernie, actually.

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53.7 Clinton
34.0 Sanders
01.7 O'Malley

That's a record high for Bernie. He was never above 31% until the first poll that overlaps with this one (4 days ago).

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For the Democrats, Wouldn't Vote has the Big Mo, going from 7.5% to 13.6% in 5 days. I assume this is supposed to be undecided, since there is no undecided option?

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The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

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The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

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The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

Point is, this poll is bouncy. I wouldn't put much stock in it.

I know it bounces around some, but you can't directly compare polls with and without Biden.

On the Republican side, Jeb is now in 6th place. Fiornia just passed him.

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The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

Your really grasping at straws.

When polls had with and without Biden at the same time, Hillary usually did over 10 points better without Biden. So it's absolutely not grasping at straws.

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Sorry hillbots but the election is gonna be closer then you think.

You're going off ONE variation of a bouncy poll. C'mon.

I am saying people need to accept all bouncy polls and not just the ones that favor clinton.

Actually, no. There's a reason why why bouncy polls are treated with a degree of skepticism.

Also, I love that a 14% swing in a week without any significant factor isn't a cause to question the poll... But it's good for Bernie so it must be legit. This is basic psephology.

Most of the tightening was since the Democratic forum on Friday.

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desperate Sanders fans are clinging to meaningless movements in low quality polls as their candidate's campaign comes crashing down nationally and in all the early states...

very sad

No some MSNBC thing that no one watched cause a fourteen-point surge for #BurnItDown

OK, it was probably just too pro Hillary a week before. The CBS poll that just came out exactly agrees with Reuters now.

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The Republican race is now the closer one, LOL.

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The Republican race is now the closer one, LOL.

I think you meant that the other way around.

Ooops, yes.

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Wow, 2 polls today with Hillary under 50%. NBC was the other one.

Nov 20.
Clinton 48.9
Sanders 34.0
O'Malley 3.7

The Republican side is much less close.
Trump 38.8
Carson 14.3
Rubio 11.1
Cruz 7.4
Bush 6.3
Paul 5.1
Huckabee 2.8
Fiornia 2.5
Christie 2.5
Kasich 2.5
Santorum 1.1
Jindal 0.5
Graham 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Gilmore 0.2


The are the 3 closest Democratic polls without Biden
This Reuter poll 49-34
IBD/TIPP poll from a couple weeks ago 49-34
NBC poll release today 49-33

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The tracking poll has different numbers. They're as of the 24th, and
Clinton 54.0
Sanders 34.0
O'Malley 4.6

Sample size is smaller than usual, 383.