Reuters primary polling: tracking thread.

[Mr. Morden]

Five day rolling average through Oct. 23:

link

Dems

Clinton 47%
Sanders 31%
Biden 11%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%

link

GOP

Trump 32%
Carson 19%
Bush 9%
Rubio 6%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 4%
Paul 4%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 2%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 1%
Graham 0%
Gilmore 0%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton 47%
Sanders 31%
Biden 11%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%

Without Biden, Hillary would lead about 54-33. Not that bad for Bernie, actually.

[weixiaobao]

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151026-20151027/collapsed/false/chart/table

Average rolling (10/23-10/27)

Headline: Carson pull near Trump ahead of Debate

32.4 Trump
25.5 Carson

8.1 Bush
7.1 Rubio
4.9 Fiorina
4.5 Cruz
2.8 Paul
2.6 Christie
2.2 Kasich
2.2 Huckabee
0.9 Jindal
0.8 Pataki
0.5 Graham
0.4 Gilmore
0.1 Santorum

Headline: Clinton and Sanders gain after Biden bows out

53.7 Clinton
34.0 Sanders
01.7 O'Malley

Another poll show Carson surging.  I was correct when I said Trump was recovering and Carson is the one that surge.  On average it seemed, Carson is at an all time high from all of the polls and beyond what he got prior to his previous all time high pre second debate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

53.7 Clinton
34.0 Sanders
01.7 O'Malley

That's a record high for Bernie. He was never above 31% until the first poll that overlaps with this one (4 days ago).

[Matty]

Carson 33
trump 26

[Mr. Morden]

They have #s out now for Oct. 24-28 (so the last night of polling was the night of the debate), and it’s:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-23026
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15018

Dems

Clinton 53%
Sanders 33%
O’Malley 2%

GOP

Trump 29%
Carson 27%
Bush 9%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 5%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 4%
Paul 3%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal 1%
Pataki 1%
Santorum, Gilmore 0%

3-way matchup:

Carson 40%
Trump 34%
Bush 21%

So Carson has made some pretty huge gains here of late.  He was trailing big in this poll just last week (not that I’m putting that much stock in this pollster).

[Mr. Morden]

Latest 5-day rolling average, covering Oct. 26-30 (meaning the sample is about half and half before and after the debate):

Dems

link

Clinton 51%
Sanders 32%
O’Malley 3%

GOP

link

Trump 30%
Carson 27%
Bush 10%
Rubio 7%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 3%
Cruz 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 2%
Jindal 2%
Graham 1%
Pataki, Santorum, Jindal 0%

Comparing to the last purely pre-debate sample, there’s virtually no change:

Huckabee +1.2%
Rubio +0.7%
Carson +0.5%
Bush +0.1%
Fiorina -0.2%
Cruz -0.4%
Trump -0.9%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For the Democrats, Wouldn't Vote has the Big Mo, going from 7.5% to 13.6% in 5 days. I assume this is supposed to be undecided, since there is no undecided option?

[Ebsy]

No one should take polls of "adults" seriously.

[weixiaobao]

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Carson dropped like 10 points in November.  Hmmm..

[Mr. Morden]

#s through Nov. 3:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Clinton 59%
Sanders 26%
O’Malley 6%

GOP

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Trump 31%
Carson 19%
Bush 10%
Rubio 9%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 6%
Christie 4%
Paul 3%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Jindal 1%
Graham, Santorum, Pataki 0%

[Mr. Morden]

#s through Nov. 6:

Dems

link

Clinton 58%
Sanders 29%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

link

Trump 28%
Carson 22%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 9%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Paul 2%
Kasich 2%
Pataki 1%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 0%
Gilmore 0%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

Point is, this poll is bouncy. I wouldn't put much stock in it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

Point is, this poll is bouncy. I wouldn't put much stock in it.

I know it bounces around some, but you can't directly compare polls with and without Biden.

On the Republican side, Jeb is now in 6th place. Fiornia just passed him.

[Fusionmunster]

The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

Your really grasping at straws.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

Your really grasping at straws.

When polls had with and without Biden at the same time, Hillary usually did over 10 points better without Biden. So it's absolutely not grasping at straws.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Sorry hillbots but the election is gonna be closer then you think.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sorry hillbots but the election is gonna be closer then you think.

You're going off ONE variation of a bouncy poll. C'mon.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Sorry hillbots but the election is gonna be closer then you think.

You're going off ONE variation of a bouncy poll. C'mon.

I am saying people need to accept all bouncy polls and not just the ones that favor clinton.

[Lief 🗽]

desperate Sanders fans are clinging to meaningless movements in low quality polls as their candidate's campaign comes crashing down nationally and in all the early states...

very sad

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sorry hillbots but the election is gonna be closer then you think.

You're going off ONE variation of a bouncy poll. C'mon.

I am saying people need to accept all bouncy polls and not just the ones that favor clinton.

Actually, no. There's a reason why why bouncy polls are treated with a degree of skepticism.

Also, I love that a 14% swing in a week without any significant factor isn't a cause to question the poll... But it's good for Bernie so it must be legit. This is basic psephology.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sorry hillbots but the election is gonna be closer then you think.

You're going off ONE variation of a bouncy poll. C'mon.

I am saying people need to accept all bouncy polls and not just the ones that favor clinton.

Actually, no. There's a reason why why bouncy polls are treated with a degree of skepticism.

Also, I love that a 14% swing in a week without any significant factor isn't a cause to question the poll... But it's good for Bernie so it must be legit. This is basic psephology.

Most of the tightening was since the Democratic forum on Friday.