Reuters primary polling: tracking thread.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Donald Trump 30%
Jeb Bush 11%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Scott Walker 7%
Rand Paul 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Ben Carson 5%
John Kasich 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Chris Christie 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Lindsey Graham 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
George Pataki 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%
Wouldn't vote 11%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150727-20150731/collapsed/false/chart/table

EDIT: Forgot to add Graham's numbers to this.

[Mehmentum]

[MisSkeptic]

Donald Trump 30%
Jeb Bush 11%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Scott Walker 7%
Rand Paul 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Ben Carson 5%
John Kasich 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Chris Christie 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
George Pataki 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%
Wouldn't vote 11%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150727-20150731/collapsed/false/chart/table

You have more people who wouldn't vote for majority of the candidates. Other than Bush and Trump everyone is just taking up space at this time. I feel the younger Republican candidates will do better in the next Presidential election because of the crowded competition. 

[Mr. Morden]

So reading from the link, this is just their one day sample for July 31?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

>not including Graham
>Reuters

[Donerail]

The massive amount of Graham voters this poll excludes could have dropped Trump's total from 30% to 29.5% or something.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, already a third of the people who would vote. Weird that they counted wouldn't vote in.

[Mehmentum]

>not including Graham
>Reuters

The OP just forgot to add Graham's numbers in the post, he's corrected it now.  What's wrong with Reuters? It's not like they're Gravis, Zogby, or ARG. 

[Likely Voter]

So reading from the link, this is just their one day sample for July 31?

apparently they have a daily tracking poll with a 5 day rolling average. You can see a chart of it here:
http://polling.reuters.com/#!

[Mr. Morden]

Unless I'm missing something, this is just their daily tracking poll, and just a one day sample for July 31, right?  They've been doing this tracking poll every day for months:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211173.0

[Skye]

I wonder when will Trump's numbers will fall. Maybe they won't, but someone else will get past him in time. Hopefully. Can't wait until half of the candidates drop out.

[Mr. Morden]

Oh wait, maybe I was wrong.  The layout of the page linked in the OP is kind of confusing.  But if you go here:

link

it does indeed look like these #s are the five day rolling average, not the one day (July 31) sample.  The sample size aggregated for those five days is 439 responses.

They also poll a 3-way matchup here:

link

Trump 35%
Bush 22%
Walker 18%

[Mr. Morden]

Here are their latest Democratic #s:

link

Clinton 45%
Sanders 13%
Biden 10%
Cuomo 2%
Webb 2%
O'Malley 1%
Chafee 1%
Gillibrand 1%

Not sure why they're still polling "candidates" who've already endorsed Clinton.

[Blair]

Ted Cruz on 2% is the concerning number.

However, doesn't this poll just confirm that it's about name recognition-I mean Huckabee on 8% seems strange since he's not getting much money, he's not really dominated the news feed and he's sounding crazier than 2008.

Good that Kasich has got a slight bounce

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This is the greatest poll I've ever seen. I'd even be somewhat happy with any non-Bush of the top 6.

#DONALD-NATING!
#MakeAmericaGreatAgain

[IceSpear]

These are the results among just D/Rs, which is why "wouldn't vote" is so high. When you filter it among likely D/R primary voters, Trump's lead is decreased significantly (and Clinton's increased significantly.)

Not that it matters since Reuters is a junk pollster, as evidenced by the fact that they are still polling candidates who have not only shown no interest in running, but have already endorsed a candidate. Now that we're getting much more polling, there's no need to scrape the bottom of the barrel anymore.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the latest from their tracking poll (I'm not going to bother starting a new thread for each update):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-22515

(Polling for Aug. 1-5.)

Dems:

Clinton 52%
Sanders 17%
Biden 14%
Cuomo 3%
Chafee 1%
Gillibrand 1%
O'Malley 1%

GOP:

Trump 24%
Bush 16%
Walker 12%
Paul 7%
Cruz 6%
Carson 5%
Huckabee 5%
Perry 4%
Rubio 4%
Christie 3%
Graham 3%
Kasich 3%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Jindal 1%
Pataki 0%

[Mr. Morden]

This Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll does seem to be pretty junky, but we are starved for post-debate polls, so just for fun, I looked at the 5-day rolling average among likely Republican primary voters for the completely pre-debate sample vs. samples that included the last few nights.

link

Here are the top 9 candidates for Aug. 1-5 (entirely pre-debate):

Trump 22%
Bush 16%
Walker 14%
Cruz 9%
Huckabee 8%
Paul 7%
Kasich 5%
Carson 5%
Rubio 5%

Then for Aug. 2-6 (four pre-debate nights plus the night of the debate itself):

Bush 22%
Trump 21%
Walker 13%
Cruz 11%
Huckabee 6%
Carson 6%
Kasich 5%
Paul 4%
Rubio 4%

Then for Aug. 3-7 (three pre-debate nights, the night of the debate itself, plus one post-debate night):

Trump 24%
Bush 22%
Walker 13%
Cruz 9%
Carson 7%
Huckabee 6%
Kasich 5%
Rubio 3%
Paul 3%

So I don't know that anyone has had a meaningful gain, other than Bush, and no meaningful decline for anyone other than Paul.  But this is probably a junky poll, so I wouldn't read much into it.

Oh, and Fiorina in the three overlapping samples is 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.8%.  Again, small enough movement that it probably doesn't mean anything.  I'll wait for real polls that give entirely post-debate #s.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Republican support for real estate mogul Donald Trump held firm after a televised presidential debate last week in which he feuded with rivals and moderators, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.

Trump led the party's 17-strong 2016 presidential field with the backing of 24 percent of Republican voters, the same level of support he earned before Thursday's debate.

His closest rival, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, trails at 12 percent, down from 17 percent before the debate. No other candidate earned more than 8 percent in the online poll, which was conducted between the end of the debate on Thursday and Sunday.

[xavier110]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Republican support for real estate mogul Donald Trump held firm after a televised presidential debate last week in which he feuded with rivals and moderators, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.

Trump led the party's 17-strong 2016 presidential field with the backing of 24 percent of Republican voters, the same level of support he earned before Thursday's debate.

His closest rival, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, trails at 12 percent, down from 17 percent before the debate. No other candidate earned more than 8 percent in the online poll, which was conducted between the end of the debate on Thursday and Sunday.

Slay Trump slay!

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Republican support for real estate mogul Donald Trump held firm after a televised presidential debate last week in which he feuded with rivals and moderators, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.

Trump led the party's 17-strong 2016 presidential field with the backing of 24 percent of Republican voters, the same level of support he earned before Thursday's debate.

His closest rival, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, trails at 12 percent, down from 17 percent before the debate. No other candidate earned more than 8 percent in the online poll, which was conducted between the end of the debate on Thursday and Sunday.

Hmmmm…..oddly, they still only show the Mon-Fri sample (which, as I said in my Saturday post, is still mostly pre-debate) on their own website.  For some reason I guess they only update that once every week (even though they're producing new 5 day rolling samples every day)?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I found a full release of their post-debate polling (conducted Aug. 6-10):

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2015ReutersTracking08.10.2015.pdf

Trump 24%
Bush 12%
Carson 8%
Huckabee 8%
Rubio 8%
Walker 7%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 5%
Kasich 4%
Graham 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 1%
Jindal 1%
Perry 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 0%


Who do you think did the best job in the Republican primary debate?
[Asking only Republican voters who at least heard a little about the debate]

Trump 24%
Rubio 10%
Carson 9%
Bush 8%
Cruz 8%
Huckabee 6%
Christie 3%
Paul 3%
Walker 3%
Kasich 2%

[Mr. Morden]

They also asked Republican voters if the debate gave them a more positive or more negative view of each candidate.  Here's the positive % / negative % for each:

Rubio 28/11% for +17%
Walker 25/8% for +17%
Fiorina 29/13% for +16%
Carson 26/14% for +12%
Cruz 25/13% for +12%
Huckabee 24/13% for +11%
Kasich 14/9% for +5%
Trump 30/28% for +2%
Bush 18/17% for +1%
Christie 12/18% for -6%
Paul 8/22% for -14%

[Mr. Morden]

Latest Ipsos/Reuters national tracking (Aug. 10-14):

likely Democratic primary voters

Clinton 61%
Sanders 20%
Biden 14%
Gillibrand 1%
Cuomo 1%
Webb 1%
O'Malley 1%
Chafee 0%

likely Republican primary voters

Trump 17%
Carson 14%
Bush 13%
Walker 8%
Rubio 7%
Cruz 7%
Fiorina 7%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 5%
Christie 4%
Kasich 3%
Jindal 3%
Perry 2%
Santorum 2%
Pataki 0%
Graham 0%