Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam (local right-wing party in Rotterdam) want to reinstate the "vestigingswet" (a law that required starting businesses to have special licenses). It was repealed in 2007 because it reduced competition and increased prices, but FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam want to reinstate it because there barely are any ethnic Dutch shops anymore (so they basically see it as a backdoors method to reduce the amount of Moroccan/Turkish shops). And they call themselves right-wing . Cucks.

[DavidB.]

FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam (local right-wing party in Rotterdam) want to reinstate the "vestigingswet" (a law that required starting businesses to have special licenses). It was repealed in 2007 because it reduced competition and increased prices, but FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam want to reinstate it because there barely are any ethnic Dutch shops anymore (so they basically see it as a backdoors method to reduce the amount of Moroccan/Turkish shops). And they call themselves right-wing . Cucks.

I don't think FvD actually call themselves right-wing. But yeah, bad idea. Love my Kurdish, Moroccan and Polish cornerstores. And it's not as if Dutch people would suddenly start opening shops. The only companies this would benefit are the local Albert Heijn and Jumbo.

[mvd10]

Defence Minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (VVD) just resigned. Chief of Defence Tom Middendorp also will resign. It's not clear what this means for Hennis-Plasschaert's political future. It's possible that she returns in a different position in a couple of weeks (Rutte 3), but it's unlikely because of the short amount of time between this scandal and Rutte 3 (and I doubt she'll get Defence or Foreign Affairs after this).

[DavidB.]

Aaaand she's gone. Mixed feelings: while she really had to resign, I'm afraid this might make it much more likely for Kaag to get Foreign Affairs... on the other hand there is no reason why this would affect the VVD's claim to this ministry and we might get a much better candidate (Ten Broeke? Van Baalen?) too.

[mvd10]

Omg yes pls. Van Baalen for PM!

But I don't think he'll ever be minister. He didn't get Defence in Rutte 2 or Foreign Affairs in Rutte 1 despite being very qualified for both imo (instead they went with a not very experienced MP for Defence and a random 65-year old dude for Foreign Affairs). I guess he was too vocal in his support for Verdonk during the 2006 leadership election? Or maybe he just is too Wassenaar/too right-wing (probably both).

[DavidB.]

He was shortlisted for Foreign Affairs in 2010, but Wilders really wanted Rosenthal -- not a smart move, because Van Baalen is very pro-Israel too and would have been much more effective than Rosenthal. In 2012 the PvdA got that ministry. Stories about Van Baalen and neo-nazi sympathies (he allegedly wrote a letter to NVU leader Joop Glimmerveen as a 16-year old) hurt him in the 1990s but I can't imagine this nothingburger still being relevant today. I see no reason why he couldn't do it, though I think Ten Broeke may have a better shot. Van Baalen would also make a great Defense Minister, I agree.

[mvd10]

I think his main problem is his right-wing image. He was one of the few MP's who opposed throwing Verdonk out back in the day and his move to the European Parliament in 2009 looked an awful lot like a kick upstairs to prevent him from making any trouble.

[DavidB.]

It now seems likely that we will have a referendum on a new law that would greatly increase intelligence services' access to private communication on social media. The new law, approved by the right and the PvdA in both chambers of parliament, would allow intelligence services to access social media data without needing a warrant from a judge. A group of students from Amsterdam found this to be alarming and started a campaign for a referendum, which initially seemed unrealistic but caught fire last week, receiving over 100,000 signatures in a few days. They are now at 216,000 and have until October 16th to reach 300,000. The referendum would take place together with the local elections in March 2018, virtually ensuring that the turnout threshold of 30% for the result to be valid would be reached. The initiative is supported by civil society organizations such as Amnesty International and Bits for Freedom and political parties SP, PvdD, DENK (lol) and FvD. The D66 youth organization supports it too, but of course this referendum would be very difficult for D66, who do not support the law but will be in a government that supports the law and who support referendums but will join a government that will likely abolish the referendum...

[Famous Mortimer]

FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam (local right-wing party in Rotterdam) want to reinstate the "vestigingswet" (a law that required starting businesses to have special licenses). It was repealed in 2007 because it reduced competition and increased prices, but FvD and Leefbaar Rotterdam want to reinstate it because there barely are any ethnic Dutch shops anymore (so they basically see it as a backdoors method to reduce the amount of Moroccan/Turkish shops). And they call themselves right-wing . Cucks.

I don't think FvD actually call themselves right-wing. But yeah, bad idea. Love my Kurdish, Moroccan and Polish cornerstores. And it's not as if Dutch people would suddenly start opening shops. The only companies this would benefit are the local Albert Heijn and Jumbo.

If relationship between immigrant run corner shops and supermarkets in The Netherlands is anything like that relationship in the US, that's not a bad thing. Supermarkets pay their employees more and they charge their customers less. Muslims will even be among those workers and employees. This is better for anyone.

[Angel of Death]

It's the Dutch version of "taco trucks on every corner"!

[mvd10]

Former mayor of Amsterdam Eberhard van der Laan died of cancer aged 62. 3 weeks ago he resigned because he wanted to spend his remaining time with his family. A lot of people are shocked by this. Despite the PvdA being at it's nadir van der Laan always remained very popular in Amsterdam.

The coalition agreement likely will be presented next Tuesday. It looks like Rutte 3 will pursue comprehensive tax reform. The corporate tax rate will be reduced from 25% to 21% (though this likely will be fully paid for by reducing the interest tax deduction and raising environmental taxes on businesses). The income tax will be changed in a so-called social flat tax. There will be a normal rate of 35-37% plus an extra surcharge of roughly 12% for income over 70k. Tax credits for lower incomes probably also will be increased. This all will be paid for by higher taxes on energy, an increase in the low VAT rate from 6% to 9% (the low VAT rate applies to food and labour intensive services) and further limiting the mortgage interest deduction. The net tax cut will be 5 billion euros. The middle-class (ugh, I feel so American when saying this) likely will benefit the most from this tax cut.

CU MP Joël Voordewind caused a bit of a stir when he said that it's unlikely that Hennis-Plasschaert will return as a minister in Rutte 3 (this damages Hennis-Plasschaert's image even more). Voordewind already has been identified as a possible troublemaker for Rutte 3 (remember, the coalition only has 76 seats). Voordewind is very principled and has vocal left-wing views on refugees and development aid which could clash with VVD and CDA.

[Harlow]

Yes govt good morning?

VVD
D66
CDA
CU

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/09/dutch-politicians-ready-form-government-election-coalition?CMP=twt_gu

[mvd10]

Yeah, we've known that the negotiations would succeed for a couple of weeks. It'll still take a week or 2 because there will be a few debates on the coalition agreement and Rutte needs to find ministers and state secretaries (this will be a pain for the VVD as they probably want a couple of women in prominent positions, but all of their prominent women basically are gone lol).

[DavidB.]

The referendum petition is now over 299k and will likely hit 300k today. This probably won't be enough: we may need 320k or so to be sure that the referendum will take place, since there are some trolls/idiots who sign these petitions with fake names or more than once. But with three more days this should be safe. Great news for those who worry about our privacy.

On the government formation: MPs today discuss the draft coalition agreement and the final deal will probably be presented tomorrow. Then Rutte will be appointed "formateur" in a parliamentary debate and present the new ministers by the end of the month. A lot of details about the final deal were leaked in the past week. It is clear that this coalition does not have a clear, coherent view on the state of affairs in the country: its policies are either blatant compromises or have a very clear political color. Some snippets:

- Lower income tax for high income earners, but higher VAT on essential products (from 6% to 9%). The process of reducing the tax deduction on mortgage rent will be speeded up greatly, which will hurt home-owners. Those who have paid off their mortgages will pay more too: they will not be exempt from paying a certain percentage of the value of their house in property tax anymore. This change is seen as a tax on paying off one's debts and very controversial among the VVD base.
- Increasing labor market flexibilization: "flexible" one-year contracts allowed for 3 years instead of 2 years, liberalization of employment termination laws (f**k this). Small and medium-sized businesses will only have to pay ill employees their full wage for 1 year instead of 2 years.
- Fully paid paternity leave from 2 days to 5 days, with the option of taking an additional 5 weeks at 70% of the father's wage.
- Referendums out (f**k this too), elected mayors in.
- We will take in 750 instead of 500 refugees through UNHCR, but children of illegal immigrants will continue to be deported under certain circumstances.
- New "Turkey deals".
- 1.5 billion euros for Defense.
- The new student loan system, which basically forces students to take loans, will continue to exist.
- Kilometer-based road pricing for trucks.
- Pilot: regulated production of pot by an organization that receives a permit from the government.
- Ban on pimping.
- Increase (!) of the range of highways with a speed limit of 130 km/h.
- Teaching the national anthem in all schools; obligatory visits to parliament and Rijksmuseum. Higher wages for teachers in elementary schools, who striked a few days ago.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ech, Polish fans of Korwin will get orgasm when they will receive info about that govt agenda.

[DavidB.]

300k reached. Apparently the initiators already took into account a certain margin of error, so the actual number of signatories should be at least 10% higher. Very good news imo.

[mvd10]

I'm glad that the referendum will take place. I hope the law will be blocked, but I doubt it. There is quite a lot of support for measures that reduce privacy in the name of combatting terrorism.

Anyway, we still miss a lot of details. The standard tax credit and some child benefits will go up which mainly benefit lower earners btw, and the liberalization of employment termination doesn't go that far imo (it becomes easier to fire people for economic reasons, but the cap on redundancy payments imposed by labour courts also will be raised, and people will become eligible for redundancy payments immediately when they get a job instead of after 2 years in their job).

Anyway for a libertarianish person who doesn't really mind the EU a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition probably is the best realistic option, so I won't complain . I generally back the leaked government measures (including further liberalizing the labour market). Abolishing the referendum and getting rid of the property tax exemption look like bad ideas and the lack of focus on innovation/R&D bothers me but overall I'd be quite happy with this coalition.

Repealing the property tax exemption for people who paid of their mortgage can become an issue. Hans Wiegel (prominent former VVD leader) and some other former politicians already complained about it. Meanwhile some CDA pundits started to complain about Buma's new right-wing course. They criticized Buma for being too harsh on immigrants and following an economic policy that hurts the most vulnerable.

[mvd10]

Pechtold will remain parliamentary leader of D66 instead of joining the cabinet as a minister. Since the coalition has a very small majority (76 vs 74) having strong parliamentary leaders in order to keep rebellious MP's in check is very important. This also could be a sign that he doesn't expect the cabinet to last very long and wants to prepare for new elections for one more time (and then become a minister in his preferred VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition).

[mvd10]

Buma also will remain in parliament as CDA parliamentary leader. I guess Bolkestein will be his role model. During Kok's first cabinet (PvdA-VVD-D66) Bolkestein was VVD leader and despite his party being in government he regularly attacked the government (especially on immigration and integration). This approach made him very popular and there were times when the VVD actually was ahead of the PvdA (they won the 1995 provincial elections and led the early polls for the 1998 elections despite being a junior partner).

[DavidB.]

Always surprised about the relatively large number of issues on which we agree!

I'm glad that the referendum will take place. I hope the law will be blocked, but I doubt it. There is quite a lot of support for measures that reduce privacy in the name of combatting terrorism.

Interested in the inevitable age gap on this issue. Wouldn't be surprised if it were Brexit-like, with older people largely supporting the law and younger ones almost unanimously opposing it. When I shared the petition with my left-leaning fraternity, so many people were interested in signing it...

[TheSaint250]

Why is FvD doing well in the polls?

[Zinneke]

Why is FvD doing well in the polls?

Josse de Voogd did write an article about VNL (and to a lesser extent FvD):

https://www.trouw.nl/democratie/nieuw-rechts-voor-wie-minder-minder-te-ver-gaat~a5b478df/?

(I believe it's behind a paywall though).

On twitter he wrote this:

https://twitter.com/jossedevoogd/status/880786181751005184

For non-Dutch speaking people (do any non-Dutch speaking people read this anymore ?): He writes that his prediction of the FvD electorate was reasonably correct. FvD scored well in wealthy LPF (Fortuyn's party) municipalities. Upmarket populism like he says. The FvD is like a wing of the PVV, but the wing that currently dominates the PVV is the southern Catholic more economically leftist wing (overlaps witht the SP electorate), and the FvD electorate doesn't really feel at ease there. FvD still does quite well in Limburg though.

Read from then on.

I would probably add now the anti-political sentiment that these negotiations provoked.

[DavidB.]

Why is FvD doing well in the polls?

There was space for a "respectable" alternative between CDA/VVD and PVV once the PVV moved rightward, became more simplistic and was clearly less interested in ever being in power again. Wilders is old news and Baudet is very good at catching the attention of the media.

[TheSaint250]

Thanks, guys!

[mvd10]

Yeah, Baudet is extremely good at publicity stunts. To be fair I was sceptical about the chances of a party that positions itself between VVD/CDA and PVV but apparently there is a lot of space.

Anyway, the full coalition agreement has been released, and the opposition parties have been very critical. FvD mainly criticized the abolition of the referendum while the left-wing parties criticized the economic plans. Asscher said the new coalition puts multinationals over people (dude was deputy PM of one of the world's biggest tax havens for 5 years lol) while Jesse Klaver criticized the corporate tax cut and claimed the new government would increase inequality. 50PLUS called it an anti-elderly government and Wilders called the coalition agreement a monster. The only other party that seems remotely positive is the SGP which praised decisions to cut taxes and spend more on Defence (but even they criticized some aspects of the coalition agreement).

Overall it seems like the opposition definitely won't play nice and if I were Rutte I'd hope that VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP wins a majority in the provincial/senate elections (or that they can enact the most important provisions of the coalition agreement before the senate elections). Tax reform is scheduled to happen in 2019 though, and that seems like the most important thing the coalition will do.

The dividend tax also will be repealed btw. Currently only foreign shareholders have to pay it (as businesses/households who owe taxes in the Netherlands get a rebate for this). This tax has been criticized by both tax specialists (because it makes the Netherlands less competitive) and the EU (because it might be illegal according to EU laws). But opponents of the plan claim this only directly benefits foreign investors and that this also will make the Netherlands even more attractive as a tax haven (the Netherlands is a notorious corporate tax haven).

The coalition will introduce a tax on royalty payments though. Because royalty payments are tax-free in the Netherlands a lot of famous artists shelter their wealth here. Personally I back both measures, the dividend tax really hurts Dutch businesses but I also don't really see a reason why the Netherlands should be Mick Jagger's tax haven .

We already knew almost everything about the coalition agreement anyway. Overall households will see a 5.2 billion tax cut, businesses would face a negligible tax increase of 100 million euros (mainly because of higher environmental taxes for businesses I suppose). But the CPB doesn't count the dividend tax repeal as a tax cut for businesses (instead they count it as a tax cut for foreign taxpayers). If you count the dividend tax repeal as a business tax cut businesses also would get a sizable tax cut (the dividend tax repeal costs 1.4 billion euros).