Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[MAINEiac4434]

So, will the Netherlands ever have a government?

[Zinneke]

PVV MPs with baggage received no attention for their scandals? Hahaha. Let's add that one to your own personal dossier of false statements here.

You are getting tiresome, but I will bite anyway.

PVVers for example have an entire list of candidates with various crimes ranging from driving offences to spying for foreign governments (see link) but receive nowhere near the "dossier"-like attention VVD does for theirs, instead everyone focuses on Wilders' out-there statements.

read whats in bold, then what I put in bold in your post.  

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I don't care whether he is spying for East Timor or the Martian Alliance, and I care even less that you voted for him. Its just the most severe alledged crime on the list. stop playing the victim.  

[DavidB.]

Still wrong. But maybe you forgot about it because most PVV scandals took place earlier already, whereas the VVD scandals have been more recent.

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I don't care whether he is spying for East Timor or the Martian Alliance, and I care even less that you voted for him. Its just the most severe alledged crime on the list. stop playing the victim.  

...? I'm just noting that you make it sound as if he was convicted, whereas there is no proof for this allegation whatsoever.

So, will the Netherlands ever have a government?

In October, probably.

[Zinneke]

Still wrong. But maybe you forgot about it because most attention for PVV scandals took place earlier already, whereas the VVD scandals have been more recent.

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I don't care whether he is spying for East Timor or the Martian Alliance, and I care even less that you voted for him. Its just the most severe alledged crime on the list. stop playing the victim.  

...? I'm just noting that you make it sound as if he was convicted, whereas there is no proof for this allegation whatsoever.

Fantastic, we've cleared up the technicality that we are dealing with: we are looking at parties and their alleged misdeeds, that include crimes and alleged crimes. And specifically, how they are dealt with the media. We can move on now, given that your original post about it was also based on...an allegation. And I'm sure your outrage with SP had nothing to do with your own politics, nor your leap to the defence of Markuszower, I mean it.

Back to topic.

[DavidB.]

It's not a mere technicality. You are posting a flawed list (also containing non-crimes such as "denial of the Armenian genocide") and presenting it as if these are all convictions: "PVVers [sic] (...) have an entire list of candidates with various crimes." Then you act all pissy when called out on the fact that some items on the list are mere allegations, which undermines your implicit claim that all items on the list are convictions.

I am not at all "outraged" over what happened in the SP. I am not surprised. And I don't even dislike the SP that much politically. I found it an interesting story, relevant to shed light on in this thread. Are you ever going to contribute anything here, or would you rather continue to be the annoying parasite of the thread, living off better posters' content and responding to it with falsehoods and non-info as you have been doing for years?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm not really updated on Dutch politics and haven't been reading this thread. Are negotiations STILL going on, such a long while after the elctions? Is it considered normal?

[Zinneke]

It's not a mere technicality. You are posting a flawed list (also containing non-crimes such as "denial of the Armenian genocide") and presenting it as if these are all convictions: "PVVers [sic] (...) have an entire list of candidates with various crimes." Then you act all pissy when called out on the fact that some items on the list are mere allegations, which undermines your implicit claim that all items on the list are convictions.

I am not at all "outraged" over what happened in the SP. I am not surprised. And I don't even dislike the SP that much politically. I found it an interesting story, relevant to shed light on in this thread. Are you ever going to contribute anything here, or would you rather continue to be the annoying parasite of the thread, living off better posters' content and responding to it with falsehoods and non-info as you have been doing for years?

Did you not understand I was giving you the benefit of the doubt so we could move on. OK I will spell it out for you : you are right, some are crimes, some are allegations. You posted allegations so I assumed we were discussing this subject, as well as crimes. You are right, David, not all of them are crimes. EDIT : oh and I still think Armenian Genocide denial is something worth reporting on extensively more.

You can remove my posts by hitting the ignore button in the top right btw.

[DavidB.]

I'm not really updated on Dutch politics and haven't been reading this thread? Are negotiations STILL going on, such a long while after the elctions? Is it considered normal?

Yes, negotiations are still going on -- they take longer than they usually do (we will probably break the record), but this is generally seen as a sign that the country is doing well and that having a new government simply is not too urgent a matter: otherwise things may have happened quicker, as they did in 2012. But it appears as if the negotiations are progressing reasonably well and that we may have a government next month. This formation is particularly complicated due to the unprecedented fragmentedness of the political landscape, with at least four parties being necessary to form a majority government; the fierce political competition and sharp differences between parties (much bigger than in the 80s and 90s, when parties agreed with each other more often and electoral volatility was lower, meaning that the "costs of governing" were lower) further complicate negotiations.

[mvd10]

Something else leaked:

The next Dutch government might implement a "social flat tax". Everyone would pay a 35% tax rate, but high-earners (I guess the threshold will be something like 70k) will pay an extra surcharge of 10-13% (the surcharge wouldn't take deductions into account). Currently there are 3 (officially 4) tax rates: 36% (first 20k), 41% (20k-65k) and 52% (65k+). Marginal tax rates are criminally high here, I really doubt there is any incentive to work more if you're a renter earning 25k and don't have any young children. The marginal income tax rate already is high (41%), but if you add all phase-outs for tax credits and means-tested benefits that rate gets really high. So I'd personally support the social "flat tax" (it also would include slashing deductions, so overall the tax code would be simplified which is really necessary).

Sylvester Eijffinger (professor at my university ) has strongly supported a simplified tax system with 1 rate and a surcharge for years. CDA and to a lesser extent the CU also have been pushing for this for years, since almost everyone would pay just the 35% rate (and even the ones who pay the surcharge only can deduct to the 35% rate) the tax code wouldn't distort choices made by families as much as it currently does. But the problem is that hard choices would have to be made if you want to reduce income tax rates by that much, so it's still very possible to push for tax reform fails in the end.

The employers' organizations and labour unions weren't able to reach an agreement on labour market reform or pension reform. The government can still go ahead and try, but the labour unions probably will come out against it in full force (especially since Rutte 3 probably won't include any left-wing parties after the GL fiasco, so by Dutch standards it will be a fairly right-wing government).

Hurricane Irma has been raging over the Dutch part of the island Sint Maarten. The government is closely monitoring the situation, it's currently unknown if any Dutch citizens died. I'm hearing concerning stories about people walking around and plundering ravaged shops in Sint Maarten with guns and machetes, but that hasn't been confirmed so I hope it's just a rumour. Communication with the island is nearly impossible.

[DavidB.]

It's really sad. I dislike media talking about how many "Dutch" people (i.e. mainlanders) are still on the island. I view these islanders as just as Dutch. I hope we do as much as we can to help them out.

Sybrand Buma made a terrific speech, so good that it almost made me want to become a CDA member. He really gets it. I hope he can maintain this tone as part of the government. I do think profiling himself in that direction will enable the party to maintain a unique and crystal-clear profile as part of the government.

It seems as if CDA and CU have gotten their way and youth will have to do "non-voluntary volunteering" (some sort of national service outside the military) for a number of months, which I am much less happy with. The news that there will not be a road pricing system based on the number of kilometres driven is good, though (but no surprise, the VVD would never allow it).

The number of ministries per party will apparently be 6-4-4-2.

[Zinneke]

Something else leaked:

The next Dutch government might implement a "social flat tax". Everyone would pay a 35% tax rate, but high-earners (I guess the threshold will be something like 70k) will pay an extra surcharge of 10-13% (the surcharge wouldn't take deductions into account). Currently there are 3 (officially 4) tax rates: 36% (first 20k), 41% (20k-65k) and 52% (65k+). Marginal tax rates are criminally high here, I really doubt there is any incentive to work more if you're a renter earning 25k and don't have any young children. The marginal income tax rate already is high (41%), but if you add all phase-outs for tax credits and means-tested benefits that rate gets really high. So I'd personally support the social "flat tax" (it also would include slashing deductions, so overall the tax code would be simplified which is really necessary).

Sylvester Eijffinger (professor at my university ) has strongly supported a simplified tax system with 1 rate and a surcharge for years. CDA and to a lesser extent the CU also have been pushing for this for years, since almost everyone would pay just the 35% rate (and even the ones who pay the surcharge only can deduct to the 35% rate) the tax code wouldn't distort choices made by families as much as it currently does. But the problem is that hard choices would have to be made if you want to reduce income tax rates by that much, so it's still very possible to push for tax reform fails in the end.

On the subject of tax reform, I saw your post about deregulating the housing market in the Netherlands on the Economics board and I was wondering if the subsidy or hand-back to landlords still exists, as well as the cap on the amount of housing they can provide, given the major housing crisis/bubble in the big cities? Would you be in favour of scrapping this? Would the VVD, or more realistically, D66, ever lobby for this?

[mvd10]

I'm not aware of any generic subsidy or hand-back to landlords. But they do receive a subsidy for building new low-income housing and because of government guarantees they can get very cheap loans. And the housing cooperatives used to receive a lot of public money in the past which got them in their current financial position (though they don't receive it anymore they're still possible to keep rents very low because of insane amounts of money they got in the past).

Housing cooperatives currently have to pay a special tax which has to be paid by selling off houses or becoming more efficient instead of raising rents (but the main goal really was to raise an easy 2 billion without much political consequences). Cooperatives selling homes to private corporations is the result of this, and it's also what the VVD wanted. VVD (and CDA/D66) want more rental houses for middle-earners while the left-wing parties focus on building them for lower-earners. Both VVD and D66 want to decrease the "liberalization border" (rents over 710 euros a month aren't regulated as tightly) which probably would increase the supply for middle-class rental homes and get middle-earners off social housing (which in turn would increase the amount of social houses available for the people who need them).

According to a CPB paper released a couple of years ago rent regulations and subsidies reduce housing expenses by about 5000 euros for all income groups. Completely deregulating the rental markets would cause waiting lists to be reduced and average housing consumption to increase by 12% (it means that people would live in bigger houses at better places), but it would reduce housing consumption for people with low incomes (first 3 deciles). I favor completely deregulating the rental market, but keeping (or if necessary actually increasing) the housing benefit for low incomes, the effects rent increases would have on their purchasing power would be pretty draconic. There basically are the insiders (people living in a nice place with low and regulated rents) and the outsiders (low-earners on waiting lists and middle/high-earners who are forced to stay in social housing because there aren't other houses available).

Rental markets in Amsterdam and Utrecht are pretty f**ked up. Utrecht even decided to ban renting small studios for more than 700 euros a year. "Met minister Blok 1000 euro voor een hok", Blok made it easier to rent small studio's and flats and Utrecht and Amsterdam aren't happy with all those small studio's turned yuppie nests. Extremely high rents in Amsterdam probably are caused by the very small amount of available houses for sale, a strong housing market (selling homes probably is more profitable than renting them out) and a huge shortage of rental homes for middle-earners (this is why the VVD wants to lower the liberalization border, but the problem is that in Amsterdam there even is a shortage of homes with rents of 700-1000 euros which already fall above the liberalization border). Anyway, I'm not really an expert on the housing market.

[mvd10]

It's really sad. I dislike media talking about how many "Dutch" people (i.e. mainlanders) are still on the island. I view these islanders as just as Dutch. I hope we do as much as we can to help them out.

Sybrand Buma made a terrific speech, so good that it almost made me want to become a CDA member. He really gets it. I hope he can maintain this tone as part of the government. I do think profiling himself in that direction will enable the party to maintain a unique and crystal-clear profile as part of the government.

It seems as if CDA and CU have gotten their way and youth will have to do "non-voluntary volunteering" (some sort of national service outside the military) for a number of months, which I am much less happy with. The news that there will not be a road pricing system based on the number of kilometres driven is good, though (but no surprise, the VVD would never allow it).

The number of ministries per party will apparently be 6-4-4-2.

Buma's "non-voluntary volunteering" is enough reason for me to not even consider voting CDA as long as it is in their platform. It probably won't affect me anymore (I atleast hope so lol), but it's reprehensible, expensive and probably illegal. The only legal form of this is actual conscription, and that involves actually being trained to be a soldier, and not just cleaning the baracks or whatever Buma wants us to do. Maybe the majority of older Dutch people support forcing young people to do annoying tasks in order to increase social cohesion or whatever but I doubt they want actual conscription for their sons and daughters. Honestly, Wilders should do something good for once and frame this as giving "Moroccan scum" or jihadists military training. Buma himself was rejected from conscription btw (cuck level: over 9000).

I mostly agree with Buma's stances on immigration and integration, but the constant pessimism (I almost sound like Rutte ) and his attacks on individualism and liberalism annoy me. I liked Schippers' speech more (the HJ Schoo lecture is a recurring event and Schippers gave the main lecture last year). But in my horribly biased opinion Edith Schippers is the biggest FF to ever walk the earth (though Bolkestein and post-2008/2009 Rutte also come close) so maybe that doesn't say much.

This speech does show even a VVD-CDA-D66 government wouldn't be as easy, it shows that Buma has a completely different worldview than the other 2 liberal parties. Maybe the VVD/D66-CDA gap on individualism/collectivism (can't come up with a better name) is as big as the D66-CU gap on ethical issues. Buma certainly intends to give the CDA a face in the next government instead of just immediately jumping on board of what should be his dream coalition (and I naïvely expected the second to happen).

More news on the formation: even the budget is a problem. CDA (and presumably also the VVD?) campaigned on across the board tax cuts for both individuals and companies (technically the VVD wanted to raise taxes on companies by raising taxes on housing cooperatives, but I don't know whether you should see the housing cooperatives which only got so big by the boatloads of public money they received in the past as private companies), and they intend to keep that promise. Meanwhile D66 is open to raising taxes on capital and companies in order to pay for other tax cuts and investments in green energy (where is the Pechtold that wanted extra austerity in order to pay for tax cuts again?). CU also wants tax cuts, but they want them to be focused on single-earning families (since they pay much more in taxes than dual-earners, and they also are CU's main constituency). VVD and especially D66 won't like this. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if this cabinet will be a Balkenende IV redux (hopefully not with the same ending for the PM , Balkenende didn't deserve such a humiliation anyway imo).

I think Pechtold did shift to the left under pressure of D66 members. The past couple of years they tried to outflank the VVD on economic issues, but the recent D66 manifesto wasn't that right-wing on economic issues. They did push for huge income tax cuts, but nearly all of it would have been paid by tax increases on capital (property taxes basically) and pollution. Companies would have had a net tax increase of some 4 billion euros (and D66 did not include raising the housing cooperative tax). And the stories about D66 not being enthusiastic about further tax cuts also are a change compared to a couple of years ago. Jan Terlouw's speeches probably really did influence them.

[TheSaint250]

How go the government talks?

[mvd10]

How go the government talks?

I guess they probably will reach an agreement by mid-October, but I'm not sure whether it will be a very successful cabinet. It seems like there is no love between the 4 parties, and since the unions and employers' organizations didn't reach an agreement on labour reform the unions will come out in full force against any proposed labour market reforms. Tax reform will be difficult because of the gap between VVD/D66 (more incentives for dual-earners) and CDA/CU (tax cuts for single-earners). Buma also seems to want to present himself as a national conservative, something D66 and parts of VVD won't like.  Meanwhile ethical issues also will cause problems the next 4 years (CU is quite socially conservative while D66 is extremely liberal on these issues) and even the budget seems to cause problems for them (everyone thought economic issues weren't going to be the problem with this coalition, but there is less budgetary space than thought so it might end up as a problem). Meanwhile they only have a 1-seat majority and I doubt the SGP will support them again since CU will have to give in on some ethical issues and the SGP is much more socially conservative than even the CU. I think there will be a VVD-CDA-D66-CU cabinet, but I wouldn't be surprised if it fell somewhere in 2019 or 2020 without achieving much. But Rutte is extremely good at keeping small and ideologically incoherent majorities together, so if anyone can do this it's him.

[Zinneke]

mvd, given that previous governments have been sensitive to foreign policy decisions, are there any that you think might cause a rift?

[DavidB.]

Most intra-coalition conflicts regarding foreign policy have been related to Dutch participation in military missions. It's always hard to foresee such issues, but it helps that all four parties are broadly pro-NATO and pro-Atlantic and that none of them have a strongly pacifist base (which would have been a big problem with GL and also tends to cause problems within the PvdA).

The foreign policy issue that may cause an internal rift, however, is the EU. With the CU and certain people within the CDA and the VVD being very critical of bailout deals for Greece, the sh**t may hit the fan within the coalition if that becomes a problem again. But "business as usual" and a continuation of the current policy toward the EU still seems a more likely scenario.

[mvd10]

There could be some problems with foreign policy. If Rutte gets to be PM again (100% sure) and CDA gets the finance minister (also fairly sure) D66 will want the foreign policy minister. Their main candidates seem to be Sigrid Kaag and Petra Stienen (though VVD politicians Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and Han ten Broeke also are mentioned often). Stienen called herself an activist while Kaag has been critical of Dutch immigration policy. VVD and CDA wouldn't be happy with either of them. The VVD isn't a fan of activist foreign policy, trade comes first. Or to quote possible VVD foreign minister ten Broeke: "We can keep our souls unstained by refusing to shake hands with people like Al-Sisi or Erdogan, but in the end we will realize that we need them and regret our moral arrogance.

Kaag and Stienen probably wouldn't be happy with deals similar to the Turkey deal (Kaag thinks Dutch refugee policy is too strict). Meanwhile Kaag and Stienen probably are supportive of Palestine, and I don't think CU (very pro-Israel as far as I know) would appreciate that.

But in the end the only foreign policy crises that really can kill a government are Dutch participation in military missions and EU bailouts like David said.

[mgop]

6 months pass and still no gov, this will be record in dutch politics. whos running country, maybe new elections would be good idea.

[mvd10]

6 months pass and still no gov, this will be record in dutch politics. whos running country, maybe new elections would be good idea.

New elections wouldn't solve much. You also have to take the senate into account, and the only semi-viable coalition which has a majority in the senate while not having one in the Tweede Kamer is CDA-D66-PvdA-SP (that's not going to happen and I doubt you would be happy with it). VVD-CDA-D66 doesn't have a majority in the senate and the next senate elections are in 2019. Meanwhile a right-wing bloc of VVD-PVV-CDA-SGP-FvD (I assume this is your preferred coalition) doesn't have a majority in the senate either, you would need to add 50PLUS and it would get really complicated after that. And VVD/CDA really don't want to work with Wilders again, they've said it for a billion times now. So with or without new elections, it's going to be VVD-CDA-D66-fourth party (or VVD-CDA-D66 minority).

The negotiations are in the final phase btw. Most people expect that there will be a cabinet by early October (a deal in a week or 2, plus another week to let the CPB analyze the economic effects of the cabinet's economic policy and to search for ministers).

It's possible that they will break the record. The record is 208 days and we're at day 180 (but the Belgian record is 500+ days ). But it's always hard to compare formations. The longest formation was van Agt I, but that largest part of that formation were the ultimately unsuccessful negotiations on a PvdA-CDA cabinet. The formation of the actual cabinet (CDA-VVD) only took 30 days or something (but because of a thin majority and annoying left-wing CDA MP's the cabinet literally achieved nothing, Lubbers' CDA-VVD cabinets were much more successful. Van Agt probably will be remembered as one of the worst Dutch PM's). It's the same with this formation. It took them 60 days to realize a VVD-CDA-D66-GL cabinet wasn't going to work (and another 2 weeks to realize it really wasn't going to work). Negotiations on VVD-CDA-D66-CU "only" lasted 50 days or so (they didn't negotiate during the summer break).

[mgop]

6 months pass and still no gov, this will be record in dutch politics. whos running country, maybe new elections would be good idea.

New elections wouldn't solve much. You also have to take the senate into account, and the only semi-viable coalition which has a majority in the senate while not having one in the Tweede Kamer is CDA-D66-PvdA-SP (that's not going to happen and I doubt you would be happy with it). VVD-CDA-D66 doesn't have a majority in the senate and the next senate elections are in 2019. Meanwhile a right-wing bloc of VVD-PVV-CDA-SGP-FvD (I assume this is your preferred coalition) doesn't have a majority in the senate either, you would need to add 50PLUS and it would get really complicated after that. And VVD/CDA really don't want to work with Wilders again, they've said it for a billion times now. So with or without new elections, it's going to be VVD-CDA-D66-fourth party (or VVD-CDA-D66 minority).

The negotiations are in the final phase btw. Most people expect that there will be a cabinet by early October (a deal in a week or 2, plus another week to let the CPB analyze the economic effects of the cabinet's economic policy and to search for ministers).

It's possible that they will break the record. The record is 208 days and we're at day 180 (but the Belgian record is 500+ days ). But it's always hard to compare formations. The longest formation was van Agt I, but that largest part of that formation were the ultimately unsuccessful negotiations on a PvdA-CDA cabinet. The formation of the actual cabinet (CDA-VVD) only took 30 days or something (but because of a thin majority and annoying left-wing CDA MP's the cabinet literally achieved nothing, Lubbers' CDA-VVD cabinets were much more successful. Van Agt probably will be remembered as one of the worst Dutch PM's). It's the same with this formation. It took them 60 days to realize a VVD-CDA-D66-GL cabinet wasn't going to work (and another 2 weeks to realize it really wasn't going to work). Negotiations on VVD-CDA-D66-CU "only" lasted 50 days or so (they didn't negotiate during the summer break).

germany who had elections 6 months after netherlands will probably form government before dutch

[DavidB.]

No, I don't think so.

[mvd10]

Yeah, it might take a while in Germany while we probably will get our cabinet by early October. SPD isn't going to bend over for Mutti again (so if they enter it won't will be after tough negotiations), and negotiations on a Jamaica coalition will be long and painful.

EDIT: Halifax was right, typo

[Lord Halifax]

Yeah, it might take a while in Germany while we probably will get our cabinet by early October. SPD isn't going to bend over for Mutti again (so if they enter it won't will be after tough negotiations), and negotiations on a Jamaica coalition will be long and painful.

ftfy

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl today: 51% hope a VVD-CDA-D66-CU government will be formed, 39% hope this will not happen. 33% would have preferred a VVD-CDA-D66 government with GL over one with CU, but 58% rather have one with CU.

As for the ministerial positions: it seems that there will be a new ministry for Climate and the Environment and one for Immigration and Asylum, and that the VVD will get six ministers, CDA and D66 four, and the ChristenUnie two.

Some speculation:

D66: In order to make its profile clear in an otherwise relatively conservative government, D66 will want an economic ministry (Finance or Economic Affairs), an international ministry (Foreign Affairs or Aid/Trade, but not Defense), Education, and Climate. If they get the big prize on the economy (Finance, for Wouter Koolmees) they will not get Foreign Affairs as well, so they would get Aid/Trade (Sigrid Kaag or Petra Stienen); if, on the other hand, they get Foreign Affairs (Kaag, Stienen, Kees Verhoeven, Rob de Wijk or Alexander Pechtold himself), then Amsterdam alderwoman Kajsa Ollongren may get the job at Economic Affairs that she wants. The Climate Ministry could go to greenish D66 MP Stientje van Veldhoven, but may be a good second position for CU as well. Education could go to Pechtold, Paul van Meenen or Vera Bergkamp: the latter would make sure D66 continue to profile themselves very strongly as the pro-LGBT party from within the government. D66 will find it to be important to have at least two female ministers.

CU: Carola Schouten truly wants Social Affairs and will become Deputy Prime Minister too. VVD MP Halbe Zijlstra is a candidate for Social Affairs too, but it seems much more likely that Schouten will get it. As a second ministry for CU, either a new position could be created (something with youth and families, like in Balkenende IV) or they would get a ministry such as Climate or Aid/Trade (Joel Voordewind?). Defense is a possibility too.

VVD: It is clear Rutte will be PM. Apart from that, the VVD will probably try and get either Foreign Affairs or Defense. Candidates for Foreign Affairs are current Defense Minister Jeanine Hennis and MP Han ten Broeke. Both would be candidates for Defense too, but I do think Hennis will actually be promoted. The new ministry for Immigration and Asylum would be a great pick for Malik Azmani. The VVD will probably want to retain Infrastructure (probably without the environmental portfolio) too, even though Schultz leaves for a more lucrative job. All this seems straightforward, but the others are more complicated. Zijlstra wants Social Affairs (but so does Carola Schouten), Sander Dekker wants Education (but so do D66...), and nobody wants Security and Justice, but it could very well be that current interim minister Stef Blok, Halbe Zijlstra, or Klaas Dijkhoff end up getting this portfolio without the Justice part, which may become a separate ministry or go to Interior Affairs. Stef Blok is a capable minister and has apparently been incredibly important behind the scenes in keeping Rutte-II together, so he may get a new job (or his old one, Public Housing).

Then there is the CDA, which is perhaps the most difficult party to speculate about. If the VVD (Hennis...) get Foreign Affairs, CDA MP Raymond Knops would be one of the main candidates for the Defense Ministry, a position that fits very well with the party's profile. Sybrand Buma may want the Interior or, as a law graduate, a separate Justice portfolio (or Foreign Affairs?). If D66 get Foreign Affairs, they will not get the Finance Ministry; together with D66 MP Wouter Koolmees, CDA MP Pieter Omtzigt is the main candidate for this position. Other names that often come up in speculation are MP Mona Keijzer, Noord-Brabant King's Commissioner Wim van de Donk, and the alderman for Education, Youth and Healthcare in Rotterdam, Hugo de Jonge. I do think Healthcare, the Interior/Justice, Defense and a minor ministry would be realistic picks for the CDA, but Education, Foreign Affairs, Infrastructure and something new would be options too.

The gender balance is likely to get very skewed. With female VVD ministers Schippers and Schultz resigning, Hennis is the only incumbent VVD minister who wants another term and is almost guaranteed to get it. Apart from her, 2017 GE campaign manager Tamara van Ark may be a candidate (but she lacks experience). In the CDA, Mona Keijzer seems to be a candidate, and the CDA will want at least one woman. The CU will have Carola Schouten (and perhaps Beatrice de Graaf at Aid/Trade?). Therefore, due to the probable lack of balance in terms of gender, D66 will have to carry most of the weight, which should increase Bergkamp's chances over Van Meenen for Education, Van Veldhoven's chances for Climate, and Stienen and Kaag's chances for Aid/Trade or Foreign Affairs. It would be a first to have a female Foreign Affairs minister.