Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[MAINEiac4434]

lolpvdalol

PvdA:2017::Liberal Party of Canada:2011

[DavidB.]

Swing map. Orange shows municipalities that have swung to the left, blue shows municipalities that have swung to the right. The collapse of the PvdA in the north seems to have benefited CDA and PVV.

[Dutch Conservative]

Swing map. Orange shows municipalities that have swung to the left, blue shows municipalities that have swung to the right. The collapse of the PvdA in the north seems to have benefited CDA and PVV.

Wow, the north has really changed. Used to be PvdA/SP-land. Something is wrong with Urk I guess. SGP (together with CDA and PVV) has won there and CU has lost. SGP has 56% and is a solid right party. Als the other parties combined have maybe 5% of the vote. So how could that result in a swing to the left?

[DavidB.]

Ha, you're right. Urk actually had a pretty sharp swing to SGP, PVV and CDA, it seems. But if you view CU as a right-wing party, right-wing parties got 97% at Urk in 2012 (VVD, CDA, PVV, SGP, CU) and 96.6% this time around (VVD, CDA, PVV, SGP, CU, FvD, VNL). That must be it.

[DavidB.]

NRC has the best maps: results by party, swing by party etc.

[Tender Branson]

The very urban Randstad area (= 8 million people) is clearly visible in that swing map above.

[DavidB.]

Worth noting that neither of the best places for FvD, VNL and DENK are really random. Though Tunahan Kuzu lives in Rotterdam, he grew up in Maassluis and went to school in neighboring Schiedam, where DENK got its best result: 8.2%. VNL did best in Bergen NH (1.0%), hometown of party leader Jan Roos. FvD did best in the very non-average municipality of Edam-Volendam (6.1%).

[Tintrlvr]

What's so non-average about Edam-Volendam?

[SunSt0rm]

Swing map. Orange shows municipalities that have swung to the left, blue shows municipalities that have swung to the right. The collapse of the PvdA in the north seems to have benefited CDA and PVV.

In the west or Randstad, the PvdA swing to D66 and VVD lost much voters to D66 there as well. Outside, PvdA & VVD ==> CDA & PVV. There is a weird municipality in the south, Leudal, that did not swing to the right, but swung hard to D66. No idea why tbh

[DavidB.]

What's so non-average about Edam-Volendam?

Volendam is an extremely insular, homogeneous fishing village that's very Catholic. They have their own dialect. Voting patterns in Volendam always differ strongly from those in surrounding places and, for that matter, from those in the rest of the country. Edam, a picturesque small town, is more comparable to neighboring Waterland, but Volendam is much bigger and overshadows Edam in the election results.

[DavidB.]

There is a weird municipality in the south that did not swing to the right, but swung hard to D66. No idea why tbh

That's the municipality of Leudal. Local politician Rens Raemakers was at #17 on the D66 list and was elected, presumably with a lot of preference votes from his hometown.

I've been digging through the election results as published by the Kiesraad and it seems to me that a lot of voters have taken the advice to vote for a woman on an unelectable spot in order to elect more female MPs this time. Very interesting.

GL in Amsterdam here. Obviously I'm not saying this is the only reason these candidates got a lot of votes, but it is still interesting how almost all women here have clearly received more votes than men.

[SunSt0rm]

With all votes counted now, it seems that GL has beaten the SP with just 600 votes difference. It wont change the seat allocation, but its a psycological win for GL to be the strongest, or least weak left party. ALso SP jhas won Groningen from VVD with less than 200 votes difference.

[DavidB.]

With all votes counted now, it seems that GL has beaten the SP with just 600 votes difference. It wont change the seat allocation, but its a psycological win for GL to be the strongest, or least weak left party. ALso SP jhas won Groningen from VVD with less than 200 votes difference.

It does mean GL will be in the parliamentary commission for the secret services ("commissie stiekem") rather than the SP, since only the largest 5 parties will be allowed in there from now on.

I will have to change the points for our predictions in Groningen

[SunSt0rm]

With all votes counted now, it seems that GL has beaten the SP with just 600 votes difference. It wont change the seat allocation, but its a psycological win for GL to be the strongest, or least weak left party. ALso SP jhas won Groningen from VVD with less than 200 votes difference.

It does mean GL will be in the parliamentary commission for the secret services ("commissie stiekem") rather than the SP, since only the largest 5 parties will be allowed in there from now on.

I will have to change the points for our predictions in Groningen

Arent 7 parties going to be invited by them? Otherwise lol PvdA not being there anymore

Also PvdA chair Spekman has announced his resignation later this year

Edit: 5 largest parties and they can invite 2 more, which could be SGP leader for his expertise

[DavidB.]

Arent 7 parties going to be invited by them? Otherwise lol PvdA not being there anymore

It will be five, with the possibility of inviting seven on an occasional basis (but not necessarily parties 6 and 7 in size). This may mean Asscher and Roemer (or Lilian Marijnissen?) will be invited all the time in practice, but no guarantee.

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https://www.tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/files/atoms/files/rvo_compleet_maart_2017_zonder_cover_0.pdf

[DavidB.]

FvD dip under 1% almost nowhere (except for the random municipalities of Loppersum, Sint Anthonis and Elburg: 0.9%) but are still clearly stronger in the west and in Limburg than in the east, north and Brabant. Interesting.

[DavidB.]

Both Isabelle Diks (GL, #19) and Lisa Westerveld (GL, #14) were elected with preference votes, so the one losing a GL seat is #13 Paul Smeulders, a personal friend of Jesse Klaver. As discussed before, Lilianne Ploumen (PvdA, #10) was also elected with preference votes. Another candidate who was low on the list but made it to parliament with preference votes is CDA #44 Maurits von Martels, a dairy farmer from Dalfsen, Overijssel -- he will make it in at the expense of Evert-Jan Slootweg (#19), who will probably be an MP anyway as the CDA are expected to be part of the next government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did all of his fellow dairy farmers want him in greatly?

[DavidB.]

In addition to the usual suspects Rucphen (40%, Western Noord-Brabant), Kerkrade (29%, South Limburg), Landgraaf (26%, South Limburg) and Brunssum (26%, South Limburg), Pekela in Eastern Groningen, the poorest municipality of the country, is now one of the five best municipalities for the PVV (24%). The PVV won 11% there. Another 24% voted for the SP. In 2012, 40% voted for the PvdA here; in 2017, however, this was only 8%. Rotterdam white flight working class suburb Spijkenisse (24%), some poor working-class municipalities in Limburg and Edam-Volendam complete the top 10 for the PVV.

[Angel of Death]

What was the Pirate Party's best municipality?

[DC Al Fine]

Fantastic! Please tell me more about SGP Youth; genuinely intrigued...

[DavidB.]

Fantastic! Please tell me more about SGP Youth; genuinely intrigued...

What is there to say? The Reformed have a lot of kids and are very "pillarized": they obviously have their own schools etc. At the same time they see that the rest of Dutch society adheres to different values. Because of the fact that they do feel connected to the country and its people, some of their youth get into politics. The SGPJ is the largest political youth organization of the country and they organize all sorts of activities.

What was the Pirate Party's best municipality?

I don't know for sure (NRC doesn't show maps for them), but the highest I've seen from them by clicking around on the basis of my gut feeling is 0.7% in Delft and Groningen.

[adma]

lolpvdalol

PvdA:2017::Liberal Party of Canada:2011

I still like the UK Lib Dems: 2015.  (The Iggy Grits still had a vestigial "P66" appeal in certain urban centres.)

[danny]

What was the Pirate Party's best municipality?

I don't know for sure (NRC doesn't show maps for them), but the highest I've seen from them by clicking around on the basis of my gut feeling is 0.7% in Delft and Groningen.

I tried looking for something else and Diemen is also 0.7%, but more accurately:
1: Delft: 0.741%
2: Groningen: 0.731%
3: Diemen: 0.681%

[Intell]

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?