Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tintrlvr]

A1's result in Zuidoost Amsterdam is interesting. Is that a heavily immigrant but mostly non-Turkish area? I see it was also PvdA's best result in Amsterdam but not particularly strong for anyone else (including Denk).

[DavidB.]

well, you surely know endless more than me about dutch politics so let me rephrase: the dutch society/political landscape is in general quite....centerish and more afraid of experiments/many parties seem to agree on some major points and are willing to cooperate, especially cause they must cooperate.

This is most definitely true and a feature of our political system (and arguably of our political culture).

Ofc under-achieving Wilders is a sign of "anti-fringe" but the SP also didn't suddenly grow like crazy and the biggest winners are more or less moderate parties, who have also been framed as potential partners in government.

The effects of the election aren't what SP and PVV hoped for, that's for sure. However, "anti-fringe", to me, implies people actively voted to reject the SP and the PVV. That wasn't what this election was about to most people (though some GL and D66 voters may have had anti-Trump/Wilders motivations). People voted for a VVD that used the word "kopvodden" and told minorities to "act normally or leave" and a CDA that campaigned on having the Queen give up her Argentine citizenship, kids singing the national anthem in school while standing, and terminating the EU Association Agreement with Turkey. This is also why I find Rutte's suggestion that populism has been defeated so grotesque. Populism was not defeated, it was adopted by VVD and CDA and taken to a whole new level.

Btw.....if your explanation is based on data, it's funny that people who would leave the PdvA cause of right-wing economics would switch to D66, which also seems to follow right-wing economics.

The right-wing economics argument is true for many people who went to GL, but not for those who switched to D66. It is largely the more progressive, cosmopolitan, pro-EU profile of D66 that attracts these voters. Some of them may have been tactical PvdA voters in 2012 to reject Rutte and his government with CDA and PVV.

A1's result in Zuidoost Amsterdam is interesting. Is that a heavily immigrant but mostly non-Turkish area? I see it was also PvdA's best result in Amsterdam but not particularly strong for anyone else (including Denk).

Yes, many people of African descent live there. Denk's poor performance shows that them getting broad support among non-Muslim minority groups didn't materialize, as expected.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Thanks for all the answers to my posts, i have learned  a lot about the Netherlands in the last days.

@David...do you btw see Rutte's "change of heart", or - more likely - campaign strategy/voice as kind of necessary adaption to a point closer to your ideals or just sheer hypocrisy?

I for once wouldn't care much if a politican is shrill/populist as long as he is - different than Wilders - more or less pro-european and sceptical of Russia.

[mgop]

one thing is sure, new government will be short lived and highly unpopular

[mvd10]

Rutte has definitely changed over the years. In 2004 he wanted the VVD to merge with D66 and the third way wing of the PvdA, and in the 2006 leadership election he was viewed as the social liberal candidate (vs the conservative Verdonk). In his early years many VVD voters were unhappy with him because they viewed him as too left-wing. No strong stances on taxes and immigration (the 2006 election manifesto literally didn't include a single word on immigration), his flirtation with what he called ''groenrechts'' (greenright). But in 2008/2009 he slowly started to change and became more conservative, a Republican/Tory consultant from the US adviced him to do it. His 2010 campaign already was pretty right-wing.

[DavidB.]

Effective number of parties higher than ever:


Interesting other fact: only 51% of PVV-2017 voters voted for the PVV in 2012. Means there has been a lot of voter movement going on and that there are a lot of PVV-2012 voters who didn't vote PVV this time around.

@David...do you btw see Rutte's "change of heart", or - more likely - campaign strategy/voice as kind of necessary adaption to a point closer to your ideals or just sheer hypocrisy?

Rutte doesn't have ideals. He even said that a vision is something that stands in the way. He is a manager. The VVD are easily the most advanced party when it comes to campaigning, when it comes to staying on message, and when it comes to image building. They explicitly said they view politics as a product they want to sell. Everything Rutte says and does as VVD leader is thought out, from his turn to the right in 2012 to his re-branding as a value conservative and a Christian since 2015. This is all campaigning stuff.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Working class voters a split between the SP and PVV, though lean to the SP, right?

That doesn't seem to be the case


http://nos.nl/artikel/2163332-tk17-bekijk-de-uitslagen-per-gemeente-en-vorm-je-eigen-coalitie.html

[mvd10]

60% of the voters would be positive about a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition. 49% would accept a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition and 48% would accept a VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA coalition. VVD, CDA and CU voters want VVD-CDA-D66-CU. D66 voters would accept that coalition, but they still prefer GL over CU as the fourth partner.

http://opiniepanel.eenvandaag.nl/uitslagen/72743/peiling_coalitie_vvd_cda_d66_en_cu_favoriet

[DavidB.]

60% of the voters would be positive about a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition. 49% would accept a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition and 48% would accept a VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA coalition. VVD, CDA and CU voters want VVD-CDA-D66-CU. D66 voters would accept that coalition, but they still prefer GL over CU as the fourth partner.

http://opiniepanel.eenvandaag.nl/uitslagen/72743/peiling_coalitie_vvd_cda_d66_en_cu_favoriet

Also interesting: 88% of PvdA voters think Asscher should stay on (but 55% want to get rid of party chairman Hans Spekman). Treat with caution, sample size may be low...

[DavidB.]

From the Ipsos exit poll (which was very good):
Gender gap (men vs. women):

VVD: 59/41
CDA: 57/43
PvdA: 56/44
PVV: 55/45
SP: 51/49
D66: 50/50
CU/SGP: 43/57
GL: 39/61

Pct that didnt vote for the same party in 2012:
GL: 86%
D66: 65%
SP: 58%
CDA: 54%
PVV: 51%
VVD: 28%
CU/SGP: 25%
PvdA: 15%

Pct of party voters that are higher educated:
D66: 58%
GL: 55%
VVD: 49%
PvdA: 45%
CU/SGP: 39%
CDA: 35%
SP: 18%
PVV: 15%

Pct of party voters that are lower educated:
PVV: 39%
SP: 29%
CDA: 20%
CU/SGP: 17%
PvdA: 16%
VVD: 16%
GL: 13%
D66: 11%

Pct of party voters that are over 65:
PvdA: 44%
CDA: 31%
VVD: 24%
SP: 19%
GL: 18%
D66: 16%
PVV: 11%
CU/SGP: 11%

Pct of party voters that are under 35:
GL: 35%
CU/SGP: 33%
D66: 32%
VVD: 22%
PVV: 22%
CDA: 18%
SP: 16%
PvdA: 13%

[Tintrlvr]

Pct of party voters that are over 65:
PvdA: 44%
CDA: 31%
VVD: 24%
SP: 19%
GL: 18%
D66: 16%
PVV: 11%
CU/SGP: 11%

Pct of party voters that are under 35:
GL: 35%
CU/SGP: 33%
D66: 32%
VVD: 22%
PVV: 22%
CDA: 18%
SP: 16%
PvdA: 13%

Big ouch for PvdA but actually seems like worse news for CDA. PvdA got thrashed this election and reduced to its very core strongly habitual supporters, who are indeed quite old, but has the opportunity to come back. For CDA, even in an election that feels like a major victory, their vote is very old, showing that their maximum possible vote share continues to decline (though perhaps not if they turn more socially conservative and can start stealing away more votes from the very young CU and SGP).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Prediction: this will be the last general election Wilders fights.

[Tender Branson]

Time to cross-check my prediction with reality:

Tender's FINAL prediction:

33 seats - VVD
23 seats - CDA
22 seats - PVV
16 seats - D66
14 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
10 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  3 seats - PvdD
  2 seats - Denk
  1 seats - FvD

MoE = +/- 2 seats (for those over 10 seats) and +/- 1 seat for those with less than 10 seats

33 seats - VVD [nailed it]
20 seats - PVV [overestimated by 2]
19 seats - CDA [overestimated by 4 - outside my MoE]
19 seats - D66 [underestimated by 3 - outside my MoE]
14 seats - SP [nailed it]
14 seats - GL [nailed it]
  9 seats - PvdA [overestimated by 1]
  5 seats - CU [nailed it]
  5 seats - PvdD [underestimated by 2 - outside my MoE]
  4 seats - 50+ [nailed it]
  3 seats - SGP [nailed it]
  3 seats - Denk [underestimated by 1]
  2 seats - FvD [underestimated by 1]

I missed my own MoE goal in 2 cases with parties above 10 seats (CDA, D66) and in 1 case for parties with less than 10 seats (PvdD).

If turnout would have been lower, 70-75%, I guess my prediction would have been better.

[Dutch Conservative]

Effective number of parties higher than ever:


Interesting other fact: only 51% of PVV-2017 voters voted for the PVV in 2012. Means there has been a lot of voter movement going on and that there are a lot of PVV-2012 voters who didn't vote PVV this time around.

I'm not sure if this is a correct conclusion. NOS (Ipsos) reports dat 67% of 2012 PVV-voters voted PVV again. That 67% is the 51% of their share now. So that means only 33% of the 2012 PVV-voters didnt vote for PVV in 2017. That is quite low, considering only CU, SGP and CDA have a lower percentage.

Source: http://nos.nl/artikel/2163443-pvda-gedecimeerd-waar-zijn-al-die-stemmers-gebleven.html

[Dutch Conservative]

Time to cross-check my prediction with reality:

Tender's FINAL prediction:

33 seats - VVD
23 seats - CDA
22 seats - PVV
16 seats - D66
14 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
10 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  3 seats - PvdD
  2 seats - Denk
  1 seats - FvD

MoE = +/- 2 seats (for those over 10 seats) and +/- 1 seat for those with less than 10 seats

33 seats - VVD [nailed it]
20 seats - PVV [overestimated by 2]
19 seats - CDA [overestimated by 4 - outside my MoE]
19 seats - D66 [underestimated by 3 - outside my MoE]
14 seats - SP [nailed it]
14 seats - GL [nailed it]
  9 seats - PvdA [overestimated by 1]
  5 seats - CU [nailed it]
  5 seats - PvdD [underestimated by 2 - outside my MoE]
  4 seats - 50+ [nailed it]
  3 seats - SGP [nailed it]
  3 seats - Denk [underestimated by 1]
  2 seats - FvD [underestimated by 1]

I missed my own MoE goal in 2 cases with parties above 10 seats (CDA, D66) and in 1 case for parties with less than 10 seats (PvdD).

If turnout would have been lower, 70-75%, I guess my prediction would have been better.

Final Prediction

VVD  26
PVV  26
CDA  24
D66  16
GL    14
PvdA 9
SP    14
CU     5
SGP   4
50+   5
PvdD  3
DENK 2
FvD   2

It's a huge gamble, polls are all over the place and I can't ignore what I am witnissing in my surrounding. Have a nice election day all and vote!

Pretty good TB, well done. Here's is my list (ouch). Much to learn I still have, but I knew it was a gamble. I probably also have to diversify my circle of friends.

33 seats - VVD [underestimated by 7]
20 seats - PVV [overestimated by 6]
19 seats - CDA [overestimated by 5]
19 seats - D66 [underestimated by 3]
14 seats - SP [nailed it]
14 seats - GL [nailed it]
  9 seats - PvdA [nailed it]
  5 seats - CU [nailed it]
  5 seats - PvdD [underestimated by 2]
  4 seats - 50+ [overestimated by 1, but could still end up correct]
  3 seats - SGP [overestimated by 1]
  3 seats - Denk [underestimated by 1]
  2 seats - FvD [nailed it]

[Tender Branson]

Also:

Thumbs up to the Dutch pollsters, who got almost all parties right in their pre-election polls.

Except for the VVD (which benefitted from PM Rutte's incumbency and the Dutch-Turkish fight in the final days). Stuff like this is hard to predict by pre-election polls, because many voters only decide on election day.

Also, pollsters slightly overestimated Groen-Links, but I always thought this was a bubble that would not fully materialize on election day (pollsters picked up the downward trend in the last days though. The overestimated 6 seats and higher turnout then helped Denk and PvdD.

For the PVV, the anti-Trump sentiment in Europe right now (people don't want a radical party to put shame on the country's image abroad, like Trump does) outbalanced the Turkish agitation.

And also thumbs up to the Dutch people for 80%+ turnout (hopefully we can get 80% next year too, but I doubt it with our silly opening and closing times).

[Zuza]

Pct of party voters that are over 65:
PvdA: 44%
CDA: 31%
VVD: 24%
SP: 19%
GL: 18%
D66: 16%
PVV: 11%
CU/SGP: 11%

Pct of party voters that are under 35:
GL: 35%
CU/SGP: 33%
D66: 32%
VVD: 22%
PVV: 22%
CDA: 18%
SP: 16%
PvdA: 13%

Why are CU/SGP voters so young? Only because of high birth rates in the Bible Belt? Which of these 2 parties has younger voters? SGP?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw.....if your explanation is based on data, it's funny that people who would leave the PdvA cause of right-wing economics would switch to D66, which also seems to follow right-wing economics.

Ah but that's because many of those voters were more interested in punishing their usual party than on picking a new one.

[mvd10]

Btw.....if your explanation is based on data, it's funny that people who would leave the PdvA cause of right-wing economics would switch to D66, which also seems to follow right-wing economics.

Ah but that's because many of those voters were more interested in punishing their usual party than on picking a new one.

It's still weird. D66 didn't even pretend to be to the left of this coalition on economics. They called for extra spending cuts to finance the tax cuts passed in 2015. Maybe most of the 2012 PvdA voters who returned to D66 were strategic voters and not actual social democrats. But it would have made more sense for them to cast a strategic vote for the VVD in that case.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Since January 1, Austria has its own "Denk" party:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Movement_for_the_Future

It reminds me a bit of the politically bankrupt BZÖ party (Alliance for the Future of Austria).

All of their founding members are Austro-Turks, but it says it wants to be a party for all migrants here.

[windjammer]

Any exit polls by age

[Zinneke]

BTW:

Since January 1, Austria has its own "Denk" party:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Movement_for_the_Future

It reminds me a bit of the politically bankrupt BZÖ party (Alliance for the Future of Austria).

All of their founding members are Austro-Turks, but it says it wants to be a party for all migrants here.

We have much, much worse here in Brussels.



I don't understand DENK being considered as dangerous. For sure, they are basically a sign of failed integration, and its an issue that needs to be addressed. But I don´t think they are quite aware of the political implications of their vote. 

[Mike88]

Will we only know by March 21, date of the publication of the official results, the raw vote totals for each parties?

[DavidB.]

Final guesstimate:

VVD: 28 seats [underestimated by 5]
PVV: 22 seats [overestimated by 2]
CDA: 20 seats [overestimated by 1]
D66: 18 seats [underestimated by 1]
GroenLinks: 17 seats [overestimated by 3]
SP: 15 seats [overestimated by 1]
PvdA: 10 seats [overestimated by 1]
CU: 5 seats [correct]
50Plus: 5 seats [correct or overestimated by 1]
PvdD: 4 seats [correct or underestimated by 1]
SGP: 3 seats [correct]
DENK: 2 seats [underestimated by 1]
FvD: 1 seat [underestimated by 1]

73.5% turnout [yikes]

I know Tender will always be better at this than I, but I think my prediction was pretty good, better than the 323-215 one at least... except for turnout, but that caught us all by surprise, I think. Will look at all of our more specific predictions for municipalities and parties tonight or tomorrow.

The party leaders decided that Edith Schippers (Public Health Minister, VVD), who will not be part of the next government, will look into the options for the formation of a new government. CU leader Segers already stated that he thinks Rutte should look into VVD-CDA-D66-GL before talking to him, likely because he wants to prevent that option from being on Alexander Pechtold's mind during an attempt to form a VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. I really doubt the VVD will come to an agreement with GL.

Sad news then: Rotterdam CDA city councillor Turan Yazir, who is a follower of the Milli Görus movement, today resigned his seat because he received so many death threats by Erdogan supporters. They believe in the unsubstantiated idea that Yazir would have sparked the diplomatic conflict between the Netherlands and Turkey.

The turnout figure will be 80.4%, slightly higher than in 2006. Some municipalities have insanely high turnout figures. Very happy with that.

It is still unclear whether PvdD get 5 seats and 50Plus 4 or the other way around.

[Vosem]

Final prediction:
VVD 26 (+7)
CDA 20 (-1)
PVV 20 (-)
D66 18 (+1)
GL 17 (-3)
SP 15 (-1)
PvdA 11 (-2)
CU 6 (-1)
PvdD 5 (-)
50+ 4 (-)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 2 (+1)
FvD 2 (-)
PP 1 (-1)
VNL 1 (-1)