Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

Final seat prediction:

VVD 29
PVV 21
CDA 21
D66 17
GL 16
SP 14
PvdA 12
CU 6
50PLUS 4
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 1


I will do the other questions later today.

VVD 29 - underestimated by 4
PVV 21 - overestimated by 1
CDA 21 - overestimated by 2
D66 17 - underestimated by 2
GL 16 - overestimated by 2
SP 14 - correct
PvdA 12 - overestimated by 3
CU 6 - overestimated by 1
50PLUS 4 - presumably correct
PvdD 4 - presumably underestimated by 1
SGP 3 - correct
DENK 2 - underestimated by 1
FvD 1 - underestimated by 1

Not too bad, better than my US 2016 predictions .

I've heard some talk about a possible VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition with different majorities depending on the issues. It makes some sense, they have 71 seats so they need just 5 more for a majority. It would also avoid the VVD-GL or D66-CU clashes. But I think the VVD prefers a majority coalition after Rutte 2.

[DavidB.]

I've heard some talk about a possible VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition with different majorities depending on the issues. It makes some sense, they have 71 seats so they need just 5 more for a majority. It would also avoid the VVD-GL or D66-CU clashes. But I think the VVD prefers a majority coalition after Rutte 2.

It would make perfect sense to form such a coalition, which would be highly ideologically coherent: we have negative parliamentarism after all. We have to adapt to the new fragmented reality and our system allows us to do so. However, since the "experiments" of Rutte-I and Rutte-II are seen as mistakes and majority coalitions are widely viewed as more stable, it will probably not happen. The irony, of course, is that a three-party minority coalition may be a lot more stable than a four-party majority coalition with a lot of ideological differences between two or more partners.

There will be fewer female MPs in the next parliament: from 59 to 52. The seat loss of the PvdA, who always have 50% women on their list, will have contributed to this.

VVD: 10/33
PvdA: 4/9
PVV: 6/20
SP: 5/14
CDA: 6/19
D66: 7/19
CU: 2/5
GL: 7/14
SGP: 0/3
PvdD: 3/5
50Plus: 2/4
DENK: 0/3
FvD: 0/2

[Tintrlvr]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

[mvd10]

Yeah, a minority coalition starts to make even more sense now. But I wonder what will happen to measures that will end up being fairly impopular like tax reform, housing reform and labor market reform. These things will be very hard to pass with a minority coalition especially since the economy is going fairly well which means the coalition will have a hard time selling these reforms as necessary. I think parties still are more likely to vote for reforms if they are in a coalition and clear agreements have been made than if they are in constructive opposition. D66, CU and SGP were exceptions the past couple of years, but the economy was doing bad at that time. Remember how everyone opposed raising the retirement age until it became clear that the deficit was going to become a serious problem after the 2008 recession. The same things probably will happen to other reforms unless a majority coalition makes clear agreements on them. I fear that in a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition the opposition will just cherry pick popular proposals.

Anyway, my completely premature cabinet prediction:

VVD-CDA-D66-CU

PM: Mark Rutte (VVD)
Finance: Pieter Omtzigt (CDA)
Foreign Affairs: Han Ten Broeke (VVD)
Interior: Alexander Pechtold (D66) (also deputy prime minister for D66)
Social affairs: Edith Schippers (VVD)
Economic affairs: Alexander Rinnooy Kan (D66)
Defense: Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (VVD)
Security and Justice: Sybrand Buma (CDA) (also deputy prime minister for CDA)
Healthcare: Mona Keijzer (CDA)
Education: Kajsa Ollongren (D66)
Infrastructure: Arie Slob (CU) (also deputy prime minister for CU)
Housing: Halbe Zijlstra (VVD)
International Development: Joël Voordewind (CU)

I tried to pick people with relevant experience regarding their portfolio but there are some fairly random picks. Idk if Ollongren has any experience with education but D66 will probably claim the education ministry and Ollongren has a lot of experience in government. The same goes for Zijlstra, Schippers and Slob. Schippers doesn't want to become healthcare minister anymore, but she is open to joining the cabinet in a different position. Zijlstra wants to become minister and he is a fairly high-profile VVD politician so I just had to give him a cabinet position. Slob didn't reject the possibility of joining the cabinet and he seems like a logical pick for CU. But like I said: this is all speculative and completely premature.

[DavidB.]

Schippers is retiring from politics, isn't she? Otherwise this sounds great, almost too good to be true. And if anybody would be able to handle V&J (which I doubt) it may well be Buma. However, I expect Zijlstra to become the parliamentary group leader of the VVD and Dijkhoff, now the unofficial number two in the VVD, to be minister, perhaps at V&J. Would especially love to see Ten Broeke at Foreign Affairs. I received a targeted Facebook ad from him But I fear D66 will claim that one. Mega HP Rob de Wijk may get it -- or Pechtold himself.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

I guess they didn't get the memo?

[jeron]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

PvdA didn't win on Sint-Eustatius, it was CDA which had a local candidate. Turnout: 23.2%
CDA 76.8%
D66 6.2%
GL 3.4%
A1 3.2%
PVV 1.8%
SP 1.8%
VVD 1.4%
PvdA 1.1%

Saba: turnout 50%. D66 largest party (22%).

Bonaire: turnout 22%
D66 28.6%
CDA 16.2 %
VVD 15.3%
Pvda 8.6%
GL 8.7%
PVV 4.8%

[Figueira]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

The Wiki map shows CDA winning Sint-Eustatius.

[SunSt0rm]

Quite ok, underestimated VVD and D66 a bit at the expense of PVV, CDA and GL.

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I dont think Pechtold will get Interior as its currently a very small ministry with hardly any power. I think based on the results, CDA will get Finance and D66 probably will get Foreign Affair. Moreover, Zijlstra has said in an interview that he wants to become Minister of Social Affair.

[SunSt0rm]

Some other observations:
- PVV's gains in the south were very poor: the disappointed southern voter who used to vote CDA but voted PVV in 2010 and VVD in 2012 often came home for the CDA this time rather than voting for Wilders once again. This is a pattern we saw in the provincial election in 2015 too: stable result nationally, but small gains in the north and losses in Limburg. This time, outside the south, the party often only slightly underperformed on its 2010 result, and in Groningen they probably did better than in 2010. The PVV lost support in Wilders' hometown of Venlo (though the absolute number of votes will be higher this time).
- Was it Sunstorm or Rogier who expected Edam-Volendam to be FvD's best municipality? This prediction was spot on: 6.1%.
- The SP received more votes than the Jessiah movement. For all the talk about Klaver's #revolution, Emile Roemer leads the largest party on the left.
- Awful result for the left. SP, PvdA, GL and PvdD received 42 seats, which should be a record low and is barely more than what the PvdA got on their own in 2012. The Dutch are a bourgeois, center-right bunch. A VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition would be fitting in that regard.
- The Erdogan row probably gave Rutte a "Prime Minister bonus" at the expense of CDA and PVV.
- Turnout among young voters (18-24) was lower (!) than in 2012: 66%.

I predicted Edam-Volendam to be VNL best municipality unfortunately, but I was correct that one of the smaller right parties will do well there. Another observation is that the VVD has become largest in the province of Groningen, which is the left stronghold. CDA managed to win Overijssel and Friesland and the PVV won Limburg

[DavidB.]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

[DavidB.]

Today, the newly elected leaders also discussed proposals on where the various parties will be seated in the new parliament. Left-wing parties sit on the left, centrist parties in the middle and right-wing parties on the right. It was proposed that Thierry Baudet's FvD take the seats that used to belong to VNL, in the far right corner of parliament behind the PVV, but Baudet objects to this and does not want to share a part of the parliament with VVD, CDA and SGP either: he states FvD are a "progressive party of the center" What a troll. Meanwhile, FvD #2 Theo Hiddema said he needs some more time to finish his affairs as a top lawyer, which would mean he will not immediately be available on a fulltime basis.

[Zinneke]

Today, the newly elected leaders also discussed proposals on where the various parties will be seated in the new parliament. Left-wing parties sit on the left, centrist parties in the middle and right-wing parties on the right. It was proposed that Thierry Baudet's FvD take the seats that used to belong to VNL, in the far right corner of parliament behind the PVV, but Baudet objects to this and does not want to share a part of the parliament with VVD, CDA and SGP either: he states FvD are a "progressive party of the center" What a troll. Meanwhile, FvD #2 Theo Hiddema said he needs some more time to finish his affairs as a top lawyer, which would mean he will not immediately be available on a fulltime basis.

I agree with his statement. He sounds like the perfect successor to the CentrumPartij.

[rob in cal]

   So, what parties outside of the Fvd, attempted to coopt the PVV nationalist message, if any?  And which were the most against? (I'm guessing Denk of course, and GL?).

[Tintrlvr]

  So, what parties outside of the Fvd, attempted to coopt the PVV nationalist message, if any?  And which were the most against? (I'm guessing Denk of course, and GL?).

D66 and GL are the most anti-nationalist parties. Denk isn't really anti-nationalist; they're just Turkish nationalists instead of Dutch nationalists. A1, which was a Denk splinter group that didn't make it in, was more genuinely about immigrant rights and tolerance than Denk. In addition to PVV and FvD, there were some nationalist parties that didn't make it in, most prominently VNL, which was a PVV splinter group that had MPs in the outgoing parliament.

[SunSt0rm]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

My first impression is that the PVV lost some voters in the South, while it gained in the northeast compared to 2010.

Map where the combined right won, Its mainly outside the Randstad

[SunSt0rm]

   So, what parties outside of the Fvd, attempted to coopt the PVV nationalist message, if any?  And which were the most against? (I'm guessing Denk of course, and GL?).

In this campaign VVD, SGP and especially CDA appealed to the PVV nationalist message. CDA had a plan which require children to sing the national anthem at school. PvdA had a weird message of progressive patriottism

[DavidB.]

Very intriguing map Sunstorm, thanks for posting it. As for the PVV becoming less "southern", this is true. They came close to their 2010 result in many places outside the south, but their gains in the south were poor.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The very underwhelming performance of the PVV and the corresponding celebrations of left-liberals are totally misplaced and leading them to overlook a more disturbing trend: the far-right's message is being co-opted by center-right parties and, in a sense, the far-right has "won" the argument on nationalism and immigration. This, too, is a hot take and probably overly hyperbolic for the reason that anti-immigrant sentiment has always been fairly normal in the Netherlands but, nevertheless, these election results give no one on the left any reason to celebrate. They're yet another depressing data point, proof that when more respectable parties adopt the language of the far-right, that they will achieve a great deal of success.

All elections are "local" in the sense that particular factors drive them so this probably isn't generalizable outside of the Netherlands but it's rather apparent that there's some sort of tendency or trend where parties of the center-right are becoming more "illiberal" and achieving success. You could point to France as an example but, then again, you could also say it's an example of why this sort of analysis is misplaced because Fillon is failing and Macron is succeeding. I think I agree with the latter contention.

[Beet]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

My first impression is that the PVV lost some voters in the South, while it gained in the northeast compared to 2010.

Map where the combined right won, Its mainly outside the Randstad

The right was strongest in the north? Does this mean a lot of PvdA voters went to them?

[Tintrlvr]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

My first impression is that the PVV lost some voters in the South, while it gained in the northeast compared to 2010.

Map where the combined right won, Its mainly outside the Randstad

The right was strongest in the north? Does this mean a lot of PvdA voters went to them?

It's a map of where the right-wing parties gained or lost. The right was still relatively weak in the northeast compared to nationally. PvdA votes scattered, but a fair number went to CDA and PVV, albeit fewer than went to GL, D66, PvdD and SP (the last only in the northeast), so the overall gains for the right were greater where the PvdA vote was higher relative to the other parties of the center and left in 2012.

[DavidB.]

The right was strongest in the north? Does this mean a lot of PvdA voters went to them?

This is a swing map. In Groningen there was doubtlessly PvdA -> PVV and SP -> PVV voter movement (as well as PvdA -> SP), but not sure about Friesland. PvdA -> CDA may be possible there too.

The very underwhelming performance of the PVV and the corresponding celebrations of left-liberals are totally misplaced and leading them to overlook a more disturbing trend: the far-right's message is being co-opted by center-right parties and, in a sense, the far-right has "won" the argument on nationalism and immigration. This, too, is a hot take and probably overly hyperbolic for the reason that anti-immigrant sentiment has always been fairly normal in the Netherlands but, nevertheless, these election results give no one on the left any reason to celebrate. They're yet another depressing data point, proof that when more respectable parties adopt the language of the far-right, that they will achieve a great deal of success.

This is exactly the analysis of leading Dutch opinion makers (such as Rutger Bregman: here) on the left. "Wilders won -- but he won with VVD, CDA and FvD rather than with the PVV." VVD and CDA ran on a more right-wing platform than ever in order not to lose or to win voters (and so did the SGP), FvD are nationalist conservatives and will be yet another right-wing voice in parliament, and the PVV still won five seats too. Most left-wingers were relieved because of the underwhelming gains for the PVV yesterday night but realized the implications of the election result when they woke up this morning and are having a very bad day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

totally depends on what your short-term priorities are as "lefties".....immigration rights are atm not my nr1 issue as long as we are literally still handling a few million immigrants from 2015....if we have "swallowed" that challenge we can talk again.

the primary goal of the far right during the last years has been destroying the EU, which seemed quite likely after brexit...one year later, this ambition has been crushed in Austria, in the Netherlands and - most likely - soon also in France.

[DavidB.]

Well, you're arguably a progressive but not a left-winger.

[SunSt0rm]

The left had a devastating night. PvdA+GL+SP together now are smaller than the PvdA in 2012. Progressives and leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU hold well in the negotiations with CDA and VVD. One positive thing about the campaign is the fact that Rutte was clearly Pro-EU in the campaign and that he did not suddenly become eurosceptic before the election or tried to do a 'Cameron'