Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

I don't think a VVD-CDA horse-race would lead to much tactical voting. Rutte and Buma aren't that much different and pretty much everyone knows the next coalition will likely include both VVD and CDA. In 2012 you had a clear horse-race between a left-wing party (PvdA) and a right-wing party (VVD), I don't think many left-wing voters are going to vote for a centre-right politician to prevent the other centre-right politician from becoming PM.

[DavidB.]

I don't think a VVD-CDA horse-race would lead to much tactical voting. Rutte and Buma aren't that much different and pretty much everyone knows the next coalition will likely include both VVD and CDA. In 2012 you had a clear horse-race between a left-wing party (PvdA) and a right-wing party (VVD), I don't think many left-wing voters are going to vote for a centre-right politician to prevent the other centre-right politician from becoming PM.

There would be less tactical voting than in 2012, and obviously no left-winger is going to vote for either party in such a two-horse race, but there are a lot of generic right-wingers who voted for Balkenende in the 2000s and for Rutte in the 2010s (particularly thinking of the South right now) -- a lot of them may still switch. Buma has that Balkenende thing. Stability and communitarianism in unstable times. In addition to the direct VVD-CDA battle, some D66-VVD swing voters would vote for the VVD whereas D66 is their "political home" (as our poster from Maine rightly alluded to). Most D66 voters who sympathize with Rutte more than with Buma would not switch, but still. And some PVV-CDA swing voters would vote for the CDA whereas the PVV is their "political home"; most PVV voters who sympathize with Buma more than with Rutte would not switch, but still. Also remember that suburbans and southerners are the most swingy demographics.

I still think a VVD-CDA two-horse race is more likely not to happen than to happen, and I still think Rutte is much more likely to remain PM than for Buma to become PM. But it is not impossible anymore.

[freek]

This is a nice article: 10 images that show for every party the geographical distribution of votes since 1946, based on current municipalities:

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/02/28/het-veranderende-politieke-landschap-in-tien-gifjes-a1547907

[DavidB.]

Love it, thanks for sharing!

[jeron]

Watch this:


This has the potential to be BIG.

Of course a Rutte-Buma two-horse race with D66-VVD swing voters ending up voting for Rutte and PVV-CDA swing voters ending up voting for Buma would be nuts since CDA and VVD will both be in the next government, but these voters on the right may not mind. In fact, they probably want both to be in the coalition.

That said, caution is needed here. Many PVV voters may prefer Buma to Rutte yet will still not be willing to vote for him.

And check that D66 number for Rutte.

That's hardly a surprise since D66 and VVD are both liberal parties

[DavidB.]

Just drove on the A4 highway to Amsterdam (speed limit 130 km/h, which could be considered VVD campaign material in itself...) and saw two HUGE billboards with slogans I hadn't seen before. Not surprisingly by the two richest parties out there, VVD and SP.

The SP have a large billboard near The Hague with the text STAYING HOME = SUPPORTING RUTTE #takethepower (Dutch: NIET STEMMEN = RUTTE STEUNEN #pakdemacht), obviously aimed at those who are disillusioned with both Rutte and politics in general and inclined to stay home altogether. While an SP campaign aimed at this demographic seems sensible to me, I wonder whether this location will be effective.


The VVD have a yuge white billboard near Schiphol Airport with three options: "kopvodden", a disparaging term for headscarves invented by and associated with Geert Wilders*, "kop in 't zand", a reference to people (implication: on the left) sticking their heads in the sand when it comes to Islam, and "kop gebruiken", which is a folksy expression (ding ding ding, populist points) to refer to people who use their brains -- the latter, of course, being the VVD's preferred option. The VVD seek to present themselves as the only reasonable party when it comes to issues regarding Islam, as opposed to the left sticking their heads into the sand and the PVV using disrespectful terms, both without using their heads. Again a smart strategy: nobody wants to stick their head into the sand, and nobody wants to be perceived as not using their head. Most Dutch have a negative opinion of Islam yet think Wilders goes too far. The location is also spot on: I'd bet motorists passing the industrial zone of Schiphol Airport close to the white flight, (lower) middle class suburb of Haarlemmermeer (2012: 39.7% VVD) are much more inclined to a) be VVD-PVV swing voters and b) vote VVD than the average Dutch voter. I still find the rather populist slogan "Normaal. Doen." to be extremely cringeworthy, but it probably works. The VVD are the number 1 party when it comes to branding.

(same billboard, different location, seems much smaller than the one I saw)

*I may be getting ahead of myself here and understand if people would not take it this way, but I cannot help but note that while "kopvodden" is not the VVD's preferred option and they would never say the word themselves or even think approvingly of doing so, they do use the word here, and it does invoke subconscious negative associations with headscarves/Islam as much as it invokes negative associations with "extreme" Geert Wilders -- it is in the eye of the beholder. Just like "Normaal. Doen." isn't necessarily a dogwhistle, I think the VVD may be the one party that, in Robot Rubio language, know exactly what they're doing here.

[Angel of Death]

The phrase "Kopvodden." on that billboard is not between quotes, meaning that one can no less easily interpret the message as opposition to headscarves rather than the term itself. It seems that, when it comes to the VVD campaign, any supposedly anti-PVV sloganeering always has to be ambiguous.

[DavidB.]

Good point regarding the quotation marks, I simply used them to indicate these are Dutch terms. All this goes to show that while the VVD is always quick to distance itself from such terminology, it is apparently not off-limits for campaigning purposes. Fairly logical after all: they have to attack Wilders while attracting his voters. Any campaign that would be seen as too much opposed to both the PVV and their message would not be convincing to any potential PVV voter.

[mvd10]

I'm still not completely convinced by the VVD campaign. Their 2010 campaign was great. Other parties ran very person-based campaigns (Cohen and Balkenende were featured on all PvdA and CDA posters) while the VVD ran a campaign on the issues. None of the VVD posters featured Rutte. Rutte even said that who would become PM was interesting, but not very important, which led to speculation about Neelie Kroes becoming PM instead of Rutte. Part of it probably had to do with the VVD being used to being the eternal third party and never having a chance to deliver the PM (you're not going to run a person-based campaign if you won't become PM) but their issue-based campaign was a factor in their success imo.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the Netherlands is another country where dictator Erdogan is not welcome to campaign for his power-grabbing referendum.

This follows a ban in several German cities, who do not want any Turks campaigning there and Kurz (ÖVP) and Pilz's (Greens) comments here that Erdogan shouldn't engage in a "5th Column" campaign by taking his dictatorial crap into other countries.

[mvd10]

I wonder how DENK will react. They probably will attack the government for it. It will make DENK even more hated, but it doesn't matter since 98% of the people won't vote DENK no matter what. The people who might vote DENK probably completely agree with Erdogan.

[DavidB.]

I think this may be their best, most professional campaign to date, because it is so multi-layered. There are certain central elements that are in all sorts of ways connected to each other and they all reinforce each other. Rutte being a leader who takes responsibility; the VVD showing leadership and pulling the Netherlands out of the crisis; the VVD, not naive and not extreme, being the ordinary man's common sense option; the optimism about the future; being tough when necessary... and they are all connected in the party's subliminal messaging.

I have also come to think that "Normaal. Doen." is a terrific slogan, even if I myself find it to be cringeworthy. It consists of the element "normaal doen" (imperative mood), which is something one would punitively say to a kid who does not want to listen and is obviously aimed at those who don't want to adhere to our values -- people get this. However, because of the punctuation, "normaal" and "doen" are also separate elements, where "normaal" refers to the characteristic Dutch value most (and, with a populist twist, it reinforces the idea that the VVD are a middle-class party rather than elitist) and "doen" to the idea that the VVD don't shy away from making tough choices if necessary, which, in turn, is subliminally tied to the other campaign messages.

Rutte's letter was somewhat overshadowed by the troubles related to Van der Steur, but since early February they have stepped up their game. Obviously the circumstances are different than in 2012 and they are never going to win 41 seats this time around, but their campaign is top notch. Every type of messaging is thought out. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Rutte can withstand Buma's attacks this Sunday. It is clear that credibility, the mood in the country and "norms and values" are the VVD's biggest issues right now.

[DavidB.]

And this is what the map would look like on the basis of current polling.

[freek]

And this is what the map would look like on the basis of current polling.

[DavidB.]

The VVD would be the largest party here, but bellwether Heemskerk would vote PVV (but Apeldoorn and Vianen would vote VVD). Margins would be extremely close in a lot of places though.

Also nice how this map shows that the VVD is still a lot stronger in Drenthe than in the rest of the north. And watch the area between north and south, between the rivers. This used to be PvdA land in the 60s and 70s. Now all declining areas where PVV and VVD are popular.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

For anyone interested, electionbettingodds now has their dutch election page up:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Dutch2017.html

[DavidB.]

For anyone interested, electionbettingodds now has their dutch election page up:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Dutch2017.html

Only for Prime Minister? And 20% have Wilders as future PM? Lol. I'd say there's a 90%> chance Rutte will be PM. Largest party would be a more interesting question imo.

[SunSt0rm]

For anyone interested, electionbettingodds now has their dutch election page up:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Dutch2017.html

lol, Wilders at 20% and Buma non existent.

[SunSt0rm]

And this is what the map would look like on the basis of current polling.

Interesting, PvdA completely wiped out. Almost all cities in the south and west going from PvdA to D66 now. Although I expect with the current polls that GL would take Amsterdam and Utrecht.

[DavidB.]

Interesting, PvdA completely wiped out. Almost all cities in the south and west going from PvdA to D66 now. Although I expect with the current polls that GL would take Amsterdam and Utrecht.

D66 are still ahead of GL in most polls, in some of them by a pretty substantial margin, so I think they would win both... but yes, those two municipalities will be close. GL will win Utrecht before they win Amsterdam, but I expect D66 to win both unless Klaver gets momentum on the left. The Hague will also be interesting since the VVD vote should hold up pretty well there (though VVD-PVV swings in the new district Leidschenveen-Ypenburg may be bigger). It will be a D66/VVD/PVV three-way race, but I think the VVD may have the edge right now. Rotterdam seems a done deal for the PVV.

[SunSt0rm]

Interesting, PvdA completely wiped out. Almost all cities in the south and west going from PvdA to D66 now. Although I expect with the current polls that GL would take Amsterdam and Utrecht.

D66 are still ahead of GL in most polls, in some of them by a pretty substantial margin, so I think they would win both... but yes, those two municipalities will be close. GL will win Utrecht before they win Amsterdam, but I expect D66 to win both unless Klaver gets momentum on the left. The Hague will also be interesting since the VVD vote should hold up pretty well there (though VVD-PVV swings in the new district Leidschenveen-Ypenburg may be bigger). It will be a D66/VVD/PVV three-way race. Rotterdam seems a done deal.

I remember GL being slightly bigger than D66 in Utrecht and Amsterdam in the election of 2010 when they both got 10 seats.

Yea The Hague will be D66/VVD/PVV
Amsterdam & Utrech (and most university cities): D66/GL
Rotterdam: PVV
Eindhoven & Tilburg: D66/VVD/PVV (maybe also SP, if they do a bit better)

[DavidB.]

You may be right: the GL vote is much more urban whereas D66 are much stronger in suburbs, so even if GL and D66 end up with the same number of seats GL may have the edge in Amsterdam and especially Utrecht. But if D66 win three or more seats more than GL, they win Amsterdam and perhaps Utrecht too -- perhaps my views on this are too much colored by my skepticism of Klavermentum (i.e. the belief that he will end up with about 15 seats rather than about 20).

Eindhoven is an interesting one and I really don't know what to expect there. The SP came first there in the 2015 provincials and should not be underestimated either, but I think D66 have the edge now. The CDA/PVV -> VVD swings in Brabant were insane outside the big cities, particularly in the West. I expect big swings toward CDA and PVV there, though the VVD should still be able to be close to their 2010 level.

[SunSt0rm]

You may be right: the GL vote is much more urban whereas D66 are much stronger in suburbs, so even if GL and D66 end up with the same number of seats GL may have the edge in Amsterdam and especially Utrecht. But if D66 win three or more seats more than GL, they win Amsterdam and perhaps Utrecht too -- perhaps my views on this are too much colored by my skepticism of Klavermentum (i.e. the belief that he will end up with about 15 seats rather than about 20).

Eindhoven is an interesting one and I really don't know what to expect there. The SP came first there in the 2015 provincials and should not be underestimated either, but I think D66 have the edge now. The CDA/PVV -> VVD swings in Brabant were insane outside the big cities, particularly in the West. I expect big swings toward CDA and PVV there, though the VVD should still be able to be close to their 2010 level.

I am also sceptical about D66 as they may lose some seats in the final days compared to the current polls, although their campaign is fine now. They never manage to peak at the right moment.

Eindhoven is definetely going to be interesting. SP is normally doing great here, but I expect that there is SP/PVV swing outside the city centre. But I wouldnt rule the SP completely out, but I think PVV, VVD and D66 will perform better than the SP now.

In the west of Brabant, I expect the PVV will top CDA and VVD, while in the east outside Eindhoven and its suburbs it will be CDA country. I expect the VVD will be strongest in the Eindhoven suburbs and the area between the four big cities. VVD will easily take Breda and Den Bosch, while PVV will take Helmond. North East Brabant will be battle between CDA and SP.

[SunSt0rm]

Electoral map of the Netherlands



Rus belts will go to PVV in this map, Green Belts will be places D66 will be strong, but areas where the VVD should win outisde the cities. Green Belt in the south and in the east (gelderland) will be VVD/CDA battle outside the cities. Civil Belts are places where CDA will win and where the PvdA should hold some cities.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, this is a very good one. I read his book Bakfietsen en Rolluiken: De electorale geografie van Nederland, his approach is extremely useful and influences much of my thinking on Dutch electoral geography and voting behavior in general.