Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[jeron]

The formation process is going to be a disaster if VVD-CDA-D66-50Plus-CU-SGP don't have a majority and they need a left-wing party. But if they do, it is the most likely potential coalition.

If they do need a left-wing party, I'd see Asscher entering he coalition (if he still leads the party by then) before Klaver. But this is all speculation and probably all wrong. Last time around we all thought a three or four-party coalition would be necessary.

Well, now 50plus has ruled out governing with parties that don't want to lower the retirement age back to 65. So, effectively 50plus has ruled out being in government. They could still support a government on single issues of course. I agree that PvdA is more likely to  join a VVD-D66-CDA coalition since GL has taken a turn to the left under Klaver.

[jeron]

Yeah, I was partly joking, and that sounds plausible. I've also seen the name of Ank Bijleveld (CDA) float around. I'd like Balkenende (but as you said, probably fake news) or Plasterk but not someone like Bijleveld, who would owe her position solely to being a loyal party foot soldier. That type of appointments for functions as important as this one just irks me.

I don't see why Bijleveld would want to leave her current position in Overijssel. She'll stay there for six more years. Besides, CDA is in no position in the largest cities to claim anything. Mayors are formally still appointed by the king but in practice the city council elects the mayor. That makes it very unlikely that a loyal party foot soldier becomes mayor. Why would the other parties on the city council accept someone solely because he or she is a loyal party member of another party?

[DavidB.]

12. The student loan system should be abolished; student grants/subsidies should return [they were abolished some two years ago, meaning that students now have to take loans unless their parents pay for their expenses]

I love that the title of this question, as translated in Chrome, is "feudalism students."

The actual title is "student loan system", but that translation is amazing, yes.

I don't see why Bijleveld would want to leave her current position in Overijssel. She'll stay there for six more years. Besides, CDA is in no position in the largest cities to claim anything. Mayors are formally still appointed by the king but in practice the city council elects the mayor. That makes it very unlikely that a loyal party foot soldier becomes mayor. Why would the other parties on the city council accept someone solely because he or she is a loyal party member of another party?

Yeah, since the PvdD is about as large in the big cities as the CDA they aren't entitled to anything, but that doesn't mean it necessarily works like that. Party political considerations still matter to establishment parties in these appointments (which is already important in the process of people applying for the job), even if city councils electing the mayor has certainly been a positive development in this regard.

Well, now 50plus has ruled out governing with parties that don't want to lower the retirement age back to 65. So, effectively 50plus has ruled out being in government.

Haha, reminds me of another party that did this... and I don't expect 50Plus' promises to be worth more than the PVV's. I wouldn't see 50Plus enter the government in the first place (which would probably kill them off), but I could see them support a government from the ouside.

[DavidB.]

Funny: totally invisible VVD backbencher Ybeltje Berckmoes, not on the 2017 list, decided to go out with a bang. In an interview with BNR Nieuwsradio, she stated that "because of the big population growth in Africa and the Middle East, angry young men move here. That must end. It [Dutch vs. Arab culture] doesn't mix at all. I view this as a threat. The Netherlands is at risk of becoming some sort of Eurabia. We've been crushing each other's skulls for religious reasons for centuries. That's a no-brainer to me. Trump would say: it's a fact. Especially the Muslim faith is a violent faith."

Instead of ignoring Berckmoes' statements, VVD parliamentary group leader Zijlstra distanced himself from them and said that they "form an excellent explanation for the fact that Berckmoes is not on the VVD list", which is a pretty sick burn. However, it damaged his credentials as the supposed right-winger within the VVD, and Wilders replied that Zijlstra's response "forms an excellent explanation for the fact that the Netherlands continues to Islamize with the VVD at the helm."

Berckmoes has been an MP since 2011 and owes her seat to being the only VVD candidate in strong VVD region Noord-Holland-Noord. The VVD already sought to dump her in 2012 by giving her slot #39, but they suddenly won 41 seats and gave Berckmoes 4.5 more years in parliament.

[mvd10]

Frustrated backbenchers always are annoying. I'm surprised this hasn't happened more often since more than half of the coalition (VVD+PvdA) MP's probably know they won't return after the election.

The CPB always analyses the election manifesto's of the parties. The results will be published next week but the VVD analysis already has been leaked out:

The VVD wants a 12 billion euro tax cut, through lower tax rates for people earning €18000-€66000 and a higher tax credits for working people
Development aid will be cut by €2.7 billion, ''toeslagen'' (additional benefits for lower income people) will also be cut and all benefits except pensions will be reduced
Working people will have a 1-1.2% gain in purchasing power, the elderly will stay roughly equal, people on benefits will lose 1.4% of their purchasing power
245.000 new jobs will be created and the economy will grow by and extra two percentage points if all the VVD plans are implemented (always take these kind of things with a grain of salt)



I like it, but it's obviously not going to happen. PvdA and GroenLinks have already criticized it (PvdA called it unfair and asocial while GroenLinks said the rich would get richer while the poor would poorer if the VVD programme is implemented), and there is a sizable chance one of these two parties is necessary for a majority coalition. And even a centre-right coalition won't implement this programme as CDA and D66 probably aren't this ambitious. It's always fun to read the election manifesto's but in the end the coalition agreement will only vaguely resemble those manifesto's, especially if you need a coalition with both left and right-wing parties.

Oh, and in a desperate attempt to win back PVV and 50PLUS voters VVD also pledged to invest €2 billion in elderly care. Elderly care is one of Wilders' favorite talking points (muh evil left-liberal elite is sending billions to Greece while neglecting our own elderly!).

[Angel of Death]

As crude and flawed that coalition compatibility calculator might be, one cannot help but marvel at how much it is showing the PvdA to be in a position of power after the next election, even after losing two-thirds of their seats. Only D66 is coming close in that regard.

[SunSt0rm]

TNS investigated strategic voting in the upcoming election and they found than up to 20% of the voters of the other parties are willing to vote strategic in a horce race between the VVD and PVV. 22% of the voters of D66, 17% of CDA, and even 14% of GL and 13% of the PVDA and 50+ voters are willing to vote VVD to block making the PVV from being the greatest. On the other side, the PVV can only count on little support from 50+ and the SP.

The result is somewhat suprising even though the Netherlands is used to strategic voting. Most of the strategic voters don't want a government with the PVV in power, but by voting strategically on the VVD ironically they only make the chances somewhat greater, while if they would stay with the first preference the chances are 0.

[DavidB.]

Well that would be hilarious. A huge PVV and a huge VVD. I'm not sure it will make those GL/PvdA voters happy in terms of policy, but why not? By the way, peil.nl also polled this and concluded that both parties would be able to roughly get similar gains in a two-horse race due to tactical voting, with the PVV turning out a lot of people who would otherwise stay home.

Something else: NRC Handelsblad, the Dutch Guardian, today reported extensively about the way DENK uses fake profiles/socks on Facebook and Twitter to silence online critics. NRC has gotten access into the WhatsApp group used by Kuzu, Özturk, Azarkan and the leader of DENK's youth organization, Enes Yigit. The fake profiles use random pictures of Dutch and Belgian people who did not know about this. They also commented negatively on social media activities by Moroccan and Turkish PvdA politicians. In one conversation, Yigit and Azarkan discuss how they will use a "troll account" to comment on Ahmed Marcouch's activities.

[jeron]

Something else: NRC Handelsblad, the Dutch Guardian, today reported extensively about the way DENK uses fake profiles/socks on Facebook and Twitter to silence online critics.

NRC is hardly the Dutch Guardian. The Guardian is a newspaper which has always been linked to the Labour party. The Dutch Guardian therefore would be De Volkskrant. NRC is much closer to The Independent.

[DavidB.]

In terms of current political outlook and the profile of its readership I'd say the NRC is much more comparable to the Guardian than De Volkskrant. NRC very clearly seeks to be the newspaper for academic progressives. De Volkskrant nowadays lacks that specific progressive profile and has moved more to the center.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Something else: NRC Handelsblad, the Dutch Guardian, today reported extensively about the way DENK uses fake profiles/socks on Facebook and Twitter to silence online critics.

NRC is hardly the Dutch Guardian. The Guardian is a newspaper which has always been linked to the Labour party. The Dutch Guardian therefore would be De Volkskrant. NRC is much closer to The Independent.

??

[DavidB.]

Apart from that De Volkskrant was connected to the Catholic pillar, not the social democratic one...

But back on topic: DENK imply the WhatsApp stuff was leaked by Sylvana Simons and her strategist Ian van der Kooye, which is probably true.

[jeron]

Apart from that De Volkskrant was connected to the Catholic pillar, not the social democratic one...

But back on topic: DENK imply the WhatsApp stuff was leaked by Sylvana Simons and her strategist Ian van der Kooye, which is probably true.
[/quote

De Volkskrant has not been part of the Catholic pillar since the 1960s when it changed to a social democratic stance, like the Guardian in the UK. The Guardian supported Labour during the last UK general election. NRC has always been much more a liberal newspaper, which is stated in its statute.  NRC had a survey carried out a few years ago and it showed that especially D66 and to a lesser extent Groenlinks voters were overrepresented among its readers.

[DavidB.]

NRC had a survey carried out a few years ago and it showed that especially D66 and to a lesser extent Groenlinks voters were overrepresented among its readers.

Yeah... that was my point. Of course, the Guardian readership would usually vote GL/D66 too if the UK had the Dutch party system. They're not part of the Labour left. A good way to look at this is that both the Guardian and the NRC (and their respective readerships) are staunch europhiles, often academics, part of the cultural elites etc.

Anyway, the RTL Prime Minister's Debate is probably going to be cancelled after RTL invited five party leaders. Rutte and Wilders had already said they would only take part in the debate if only four participants were invited, as was initially the idea, but RTL wanted Jesse Klaver to take part too (probably to include at least one left-wing party) and now Rutte and Wilders cancelled. A poor choice by RTL in my opinion.

In terms of polling, it appears that the PVV's numbers are slowly but steadily going south, which means the two-horse race scenario becomes more likely. However, in the absence of the important Prime Minister's Debate, the campaigning season and its influence on parties' polling numbers will be less predictable.

[mvd10]

VVD and PVV want a Rutte-Wilders horse race, so that's probably why they didn't want a left-wing party in the debates. If Klaver had entered and won the debate he might have made it a three way race (with Klaver as the centre-left/left-wing candidate, Rutte for the centre-right and Wilders for the far-right).

[DavidB.]

VVD and PVV want a Rutte-Wilders horse race, so that's probably why they didn't want a left-wing party in the debates. If Klaver had entered and won the debate he might have made it a three way race (with Klaver as the centre-left/left-wing candidate, Rutte for the centre-right and Wilders for the far-right).

Yeah, exactly. It's a shame the debate won't happen (love to organize watch parties), but I really blame RTL for this, though.

[Zinneke]

Imagine if Dutch Turks voted for an ex-AKP member...the outrage.

[DavidB.]

Imagine if Dutch Turks voted for an ex-AKP member...the outrage.

70% of Dutch Turkish voters actually voted for the AKP in the last Turkish election, with 46% turnout. Haven't noticed any real outrage outside the right-wing internet sphere. Your point being?

[Zinneke]

Imagine if Dutch Turks voted for an ex-AKP member...the outrage.

70% of Dutch Turkish voters actually voted for the AKP in the last Turkish election, with 46% turnout. Haven't noticed any real outrage outside the right-wing internet sphere. Your point being?

Not really my point. We discussed that issue and I don't think we need to revisit it, particularly as one person is personally concerned.

My point is slightly different that there was a lot of media scrutiny over ex and even current AKP members/supporters in the ranks of GL (that were, rightly imo, expelled, but for the superficial reasons) and then the furore over DENK. Wilders meanwhile has a lot of foreign backers from his trips abroad, namely neo-cons from the US or affiliates. And now I see he has ex-members of foreign parties who wish to seed discord in our own communities. No uproar like the AKP-GL councillor.

Its becoming really hard to distinguish whether this some kind of cross-national political movement or whether its a genuine conflict of interest when you are funded by foreign backers.

[DavidB.]

There was only one GL councillor who had to resign, and as far as I know he was not an AKP member, he just voted for them. But if you're saying that Markuszower hasn't faced any criticism that is evidently untrue. He had to leave the list in 2010. And the PVV has been criticized for receiving funding from the U.S. too, but their voters simply don't care. This funding, by the way, appears to have decreased after Wim Kortenoeven left the party over their vote to ban kosher slaughter and visited some of the party's donors. But ultimately the argument that the PVV would be influenced "unduly" from the outside is pretty unbelievable to me. Wilders is a staunch Zionist and Atlanticist himself. There is no reason to assume he needs money in order to support Israel. His worldview was largely shaped by temporarily living in Israel in the first place.

The Likud-AKP comparison is a pretty poor one. Likud is the largest party in a liberal democracy. The AKP is quickly turning a flawed democracy into an autocracy. You don't have to trust me on this, you can trust renowned NGOs such as Freedom House and the like. Apart from that, there is a clear contradiction between the views of GL and the views of the AKP, which made supporting the AKP problematic for this councillor's functioning in GL. By contrast, the PVV and Likud are pretty much in agreement with one another, though the PVV is further to the right on the Israeli-Arab conflict than Likud. Markuszower being a Likudnik does not impede his functioning in the PVV.

Of course, I also don't see how Markuszower would "sow discord" in our society. Supporting a party that seeks to give back the Netherlands to the Dutch people must be the height of successful integration and I will be proud to cast my vote for him

[DavidB.]

RTL today announced that their Prime Minister's Debate is going to happen anyway, but with CDA, PvdA, D66, GL and SP, and without VVD and PVV. This is very bad news for Rutte, who wanted a two-horse race in which he could cast himself as the anti-Wilders candidate. While PVV voters are largely locked in (and unlikely to vote for any of the above parties anyway), many D66 voters (and to a lesser extent even GL and PvdA voters) would consider a vote for Rutte in a two-horse race with Wilders. However, it is now more likely that Jesse Klaver will emerge as the "anti-Wilders" (or alternatively do a Roemer and crash and burn, but this seems less likely). Meanwhile, the scandal on Security & Justice has made it to the headlines again, because Nieuwsuur found out that four of Rutte's most important advisors knew about the real cost of Teeven's deal too, which makes it even less credible that Rutte himself didn't know, as he himself continues to insist. A bad day for the VVD.

[SunSt0rm]

RTL today announced that their Prime Minister's Debate is going to happen anyway, but with CDA, PvdA, D66, GL and SP, and without VVD and PVV. This is very bad news for Rutte, who wanted a two-horse race in which he could cast himself as the anti-Wilders candidate. While PVV voters are largely locked in (and unlikely to vote for any of the above parties anyway), many D66 voters (and to a lesser extent even GL and PvdA voters) would consider a vote for Rutte in a two-horse race with Wilders. However, it is now more likely that Jesse Klaver will emerge as the "anti-Wilders" (or alternatively do a Roemer and crash and burn, but this seems less likely). Meanwhile, the scandal on Security & Justice has made it to the headlines again, because Nieuwsuur found out that four of Rutte's most important advisors knew about the real cost of Teeven's deal too, which makes it even less credible that Rutte himself didn't know, as he himself continues to insist. A bad day for the VVD.

Its going to be an interesting and very important debate for these 5 parties. They have the chance to put themself as alternative to the VVD and PVV and can make it a somwhat 3 way race. I am not so sure if its wise of Wilders to avoid many of these debates. He is not going to debate either in the debate in south Netherlands (Noord Brabant and Limburg), where all other party leaders are going to debate and where his base is. He is a strong debater and now it seems like he is trying to avoid any event and be accountable for his program, which could be suspious for his soft base, which expects more than just a protest vote like the poll of Eenvandaag shows, where he dropped 5 seats or TNS where he dropped 8 seats (could also be that people didnt like the photoshop)

[DavidB.]

Yes, it is an extremely important debate for the parties that do participate. I wouldn't be surprised if Klaver skyrockets in the polls after the debate and makes it a three-way race, at the expense of all the other participating parties (and the VVD!).

I honestly have quite a low opinion of the PVV's campaigns. Wilders is a good debater but he often seems to be out of touch with what his potential electorate (as opposed to his base) wants to hear. The photoshop, largely judged negatively according to De Hond's findings, is an example of this. I already dread the inevitable moment where he brings up Nexit, which will drive tons of VVD-PVV swing voters straight into Rutte's arms. Many people tend to dislike the status-quo and the establishment and then project their wishes upon Wilders, who often does best when he says nothing and lets others destruct themselves. So I don't think it is necessarily bad for him not to participate, even though it is clear that the SP could take votes from him by participating and that he will have a problem turning out his base since he barely campaigns in the country either. He has to turn out the base while attacking Rutte in a way that does not alienate the potential PVV voters who could hand him the victory on March 15. He has to focus on Rutte's credibility and on immigration. I'm not sure he will.

I don't know what debate in the South you're aiming at -- the NOS radio debate? Or does the RTL debate take place in the South? Anyway, I agree that it may, after all, turn out to be tricky for him not to participate in too many debates. It is a dilemma. I wouldn't be surprised if another broadcaster would come up with a one-on-one Rutte-Wilders debate at the end of the month.

[SunSt0rm]

Yes, it is an extremely important debate for the parties that do participate. I wouldn't be surprised if Klaver skyrockets in the polls after the debate and makes it a three-way race, at the expense of all the other participating parties (and the VVD!).

I honestly have quite a low opinion of the PVV's campaigns. Wilders is a good debater but he often seems to be out of touch with what his potential electorate (as opposed to his base) wants to hear. The photoshop, largely judged negatively according to De Hond's findings, is an example of this. I already dread the inevitable moment where he brings up Nexit, which will drive tons of VVD-PVV swing voters straight into Rutte's arms. Many people tend to dislike the status-quo and the establishment and then project their wishes upon Wilders, who often does best when he says nothing and lets others destruct themselves. So I don't think it is necessarily bad for him not to participate, even though it is clear that the SP could take votes from him by participating and that he will have a problem turning out his base since he barely campaigns in the country either.

I don't know what debate in the South you're aiming at -- the NOS radio debate? Or does the RTL debate take place in the South? Anyway, I agree that it may, after all, turn out to be tricky for him not to participate in too many debates. It is a dilemma. I wouldn't be surprised if another broadcaster would come up with a one-on-one Rutte-Wilders debate at the end of the month.

No a debate hosted in Eindhoven by regional broadcasters from Noord Brabant and Limburg on March 11th. Rutte, who didnt participated in the debate of the North, and the other leaders already confirmed they will participated. The south is a very important swing area between CDA-VVD-PVV and SP-PVV.

http://www.limburger.nl/cnt/dmf20170213_00036196/rutte-wel-in-debat-bij-debat-van-het-zuiden

[DavidB.]

I see. Yes, it seems like a big mistake for him not to participate in this debate if Rutte, Buma and Roemer do. The South harbors many dealigned voters who are open to the PVV. If he wants to win the election, these provinces may be pivotal. At the same time, a debate by regional broadcasters that takes place in a time when there are a lot of debates in which Wilders does participate will probably not be too decisive. But a missed opportunity it surely is.