Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

People in the Netherlands are used to it; they would not understand how many seats a certain percentage of the vote represents.

At about 20%, the PVV's current average score in the polls really feels relatively underwhelming to me, in the sense that one would expect many more people to vote for the PVV after the migrant crisis and what happened with Greece. But the Dutch are ultimately much like the Germans: "Keine Experimente."

In addition to that, the existence of a large number of viable parties creates the false impression that competition takes place on the basis of actual issues when most parties really have a highly similar worldview. It barely matters whether you vote CDA or VVD, or whether you vote PvdA or D66.

[SunSt0rm]

Polls have trouble to measure the support for the PVV. During the last general election, european and provincial election, they clearly overestimate the support of the PVV, but in the election of 2010, they underestimated it. You should also account that 70% of the voters can still change their vote before the election now, which can create large errors. Moreover, the polls have trouble to measure strategic voting as well, especially when there is a two horse race.

The big movements in the polls are yet to happen when the debates starts

[DavidB.]

Polls have trouble to measure the support for the PVV. During the last general election, european and provincial election, they clearly overestimate the support of the PVV, but in the election of 2010, they underestimated it. You should also account that 70% of the voters can still change their vote before the election now, which can create large errors. Moreover, the polls have trouble to measure strategic voting as well, especially when there is a two horse race.

The big movements in the polls are yet to happen when the debates starts

I agree, except for the bolded part: that would of course not be a polling error. Polls aim to reflect people's voting intention if an election would take place today, they don't aim to predict the result on March 15. Of course there is a real problem if the polls on the day before the election are totally out of sync with the result, but the current polls aren't necessarily supposed to look like the election result.

[DavidB.]

So these are the VVD campaign posters. When someone sent these to me I thought they were parodies, but they're not. The campaign logan is literally: "Act. Normally. VVD."


"Being able to walk hand in hand without fear. Very normal."
"Kicking ambulance first responders into the hospital. Not normal."
"Being taught at home that you have to respect the police. Very normal."
"Putting your arm around someone else. Very normal."
"Pulling the Netherlands out of the crisis. Very normal."

[MAINEiac4434]

So these are the VVD campaign posters. When someone sent these to me I thought they were parodies, but they're not. The campaign logan is literally: "Act. Normally. VVD."


"Being able to walk hand in hand without fear. Very normal."
"Kicking ambulance first responders into the hospital. Not normal."
"Being taught at home that you have to respect the police. Very normal."
"Putting your arm around someone else. Very normal."
"Pulling the Netherlands out of the crisis. Very normal."

Disparaging Trump supporters didn't work well in the US, I wonder how it'll work in the Netherlands...

[DavidB.]

Wow, I hadn't thought of the possibility of interpreting the campaign like that. I find this confusion to be funny (and I'm sure Rogier will too) because PVV supporters, indeed, have been dismissed as "deplorables" in the past too. However, this VVD campaign is aimed -- at least partly, in a subtle way -- at immigrants and their descendants who have to "act normally", not at PVV supporters. On the contrary, with this campaign the VVD intends to win over tough-on-crime, immigration-skeptic VVD-PVV swing voters who are now inclined to vote for the PVV.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wow, I hadn't thought of the possibility of interpreting the campaign like that. I find this confusion to be funny (and I'm sure Rogier will too) because PVV supporters, indeed, have been dismissed as "deplorables" in the past too. However, this VVD campaign is aimed -- at least partly, in a subtle way -- at immigrants and their descendants who have to "act normally", not at PVV supporters. On the contrary, with this campaign the VVD intends to win over tough-on-crime, immigration-skeptic VVD-PVV swing voters who are now inclined to vote for the PVV.

Well the first thing I thought of is the post-Trump mantra "this is not normal." Might just show my US-centric bias, however.

[Klartext89]

I didn't interpret it as an attack or insult against PVV supporters, so I'm a bit surprised by MAINEiac and agree with David.

My first thoughts were that it shall say that VVD wants to remember on "Dutch values" and is aimed at Muslims.

"Being able to walk hand in hand without fear. Very normal." --> no attacks on gays (from Muslims)

"Kicking ambulance first responders into the hospital. Not normal." --> I doubt that PVV supporters are kicking ambulance first responders into the hospital... We all know which "problem group" does ;-)

"Being taught at home that you have to respect the police. Very normal." --> Surely not against PVV supporters, maybe against radical Leftists and of course the "problem group".

"Putting your arm around someone else. Very normal." --> like the first slogan.

"Pulling the Netherlands out of the crisis. Very normal." --> Well... Stands for it self. Funny that a ruling party is aknowledging that the country is in crisis...


Don't get me wrong, the marketing firm getting lots of money for that uninspired work should be fired... The Statements are generalities which stand for everything and nothing. No Vision to see...

But I still can't see why it's like "deplorables" comments?

[DavidB.]

Yeah, the posters are supposed to convey exactly what Klartext says, but since there have been a few incidents (heavily blown up by the media, but still bad) with PVV politicians engaging in behavior that can be considered out of line and "not normal" (such as a former MP threatening to piss in his neighbor's mailbox) and since some people tend to portray PVV voters as lazy "white trash" who behave anti-socially I guess the remarks could be seen in that light too -- but no one will interpret the campaign like that in the Netherlands.

I think this is the first time they are going to campaign on social or cultural values rather than their usually tax deductions though.

No, the 2012 campaign focused heavily on such issues as well, with slogans such as "vandalen gaan betalen" ("vandals will pay") and "meer straf en minder begrip voor criminelen" ("more punishment, less understanding for criminals"). At the time it was very successful at winning over VVD-PVV swing voters.

[Klartext89]

Of course its aimed at conservative Muslims. Its basic securitisation from Rutte. However those kind of behaviours can equally be attributed to tokkies* in Duindorp, the part of Den Haag Germans never visit. Try to keep up Klartext.

The irony is that the far right have always undermined gay rights and liberal democratic values, but the PVV is pretending to be a defender of them and in doing so attract the fearful. In that respect VVD are far more legitimate defender of liberal democratic values.

I think this is the first time they are going to campaign on social or cultural values rather than their usually tax deductions though.

*deplorables in Dutch

Well, my uncle is Dutch (and my aunt since they married 30 years ago, too), so I guess I can keep on talking about Dutch politics. What are your credentials?

"Conservative Muslims" lol, nice try.

Comparing Muslim behaviour with all the murderer, terrorism, extremism going on in their community to any not-Muslim Group only Shows how completely out of touch with reality you are. Ok, maybe compare it to AntiFa or other left-wing terror groups but that's it.

The way bigger irony is that the Left always wanted to be the defender of gay rights and Jews and is importing millions of gay/jew-hating people. But hey, it's about diversity, who cares about facts :-D The only parties to defend the liberal tradition of Europe are the right-wing parties. And to make it clear: Even Conservatives like me would rather march on CSD than live in a Kalifat.

[Zinneke]

Its hard to tell if you're serious with Poe's law and all that, but I will throw you a bone anyway :  if you consider the Muslims to be a problem yet don't understand that the basis of their intolerance against gays and Jews is religious conservatism, then I have to assume that you think the problem has actually nothing to do with the fact that they are Muslims and something to do with previous or current material conditions they lived in. Congratulations, you're more Marxist than you think.

[ApatheticAustrian]

not only religious conservatism.....also culture.

can be combined...but you can also separate it.

much easier to take on a new culture than a new religion but there are many things in play in europe which work for and against healthy integration.

and ofc the far left and far right are both making the problem worse in different ways.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This may be a bit of an amoral solution, but I feel the best solution is to channel the dislike of islam held by the populace into dislike of the biggest enemy of Saudi Arabia.

[Zinneke]

Then its not a problem with Islam, it with the wrong doers particular culture. I could be an anti-workerist and attribute to their working class culture, or their excessively communatarian culture (i.e lack of individual responsibility, which is what Rutte is contributing to the debate). Its just way too easy to always use the culture card to explain everything though. That goes from the materialist left argument that looks to excuse even petty crime because someone was poor, to the nationalist right and their exclusivist arguments against multiculturalism. We're back at basic, primal securitisation in the latter's case.

[DavidB.]

The following debates will take place before the election:

2/26: Prime Ministers' Debate by RTL: four best-polling party leaders
3/5: Carré Debate by RTL and BNR: eight best-polling party leaders
3/13: Rutte-Wilders Debate by EenVandaag: Rutte vs. Wilders
3/14: NOS Debate by NOS

RTL toyed with the idea to include the six best-polling party leaders instead of four at the Prime Ministers' Debate because CDA, D66 and GL are polling roughly similar numbers, but Rutte and Wilders struck a deal not to participate in the debate if that happens. Currently, PVV, VVD, D66 and CDA are the four best-polling parties and RTL is probably afraid of not having a single left-wing party represented in the debate.

Apart from the Rutte-Wilders debate, EenVandaag also wanted a debate between the three left-wing leaders, but Roemer didn't want to debate Klaver and Asscher didn't want a left-wing debate at all (for obvious reasons) so that didn't happen.

[DavidB.]

Today a PvdA-initiated protest against Donald Trump, featuring politicians of other parties such as DENK too, took place in The Hague.

[DavidB.]

In other (real) news, pollster Kantar (formerly TNS NIPO) found that among 18 to 25-year olds, 21% intend to vote PVV. Among those who are certain to vote in March, this percentage is 33% (!).

[Klartext89]

In other (real) news, pollster Kantar (formerly TNS NIPO) found that among 18 to 25-year olds, 21% intend to vote PVV. Among those who are certain to vote in March, this percentage is 33% (!).

Good news! Wilders on course to get a big lead.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

In other (real) news, pollster Kantar (formerly TNS NIPO) found that among 18 to 25-year olds, 21% intend to vote PVV. Among those who are certain to vote in March, this percentage is 33% (!).

Good news! Wilders on course to get a big lead.

How is that good news?

[Tender Branson]

Don't know if this has been posted already or not, but it seems the Dutch Interior Ministry decided to do a full hand-count in the upcoming elections, because of fears that scanners might be hacked (by the Russians etc.)

Nice.

[Klartext89]

Sorry, haven't noticed the problem before...

In other (real) news, pollster Kantar (formerly TNS NIPO) found that among 18 to 25-year olds, 21% intend to vote PVV. Among those who are certain to vote in March, this percentage is 33% (!).

Good news! Wilders on course to get a big lead.

How is that good news?

Well, could or should be more in the situtation in which European countries are, but to see that despite the mass media and school Propaganda there are still so many Young people who want to have a future in a Christian Nation ruled within their own Country instead of getting an Islamic Nation ruled in Brussel, is encouraging.

[palandio]

Please try to quote correctly and not to write inside quotes. It's not so difficult, really.

[DavidB.]

Don't know if this has been posted already or not, but it seems the Dutch Interior Ministry decided to do a full hand-count in the upcoming elections, because of fears that scanners might be hacked (by the Russians etc.)

Yes and no. As I can personally testify to, votes have always been counted by hand since the abolishment of electronic voting in 2007, but the aggregation of the vote totals of the various municipalities typically takes place by using a computer. Apparently that software has turned out to be unsafe and therefore this process will now take place by hand too. A smart decision, I think.

On another note, Wilders wanted to have payed-for "PVV streetcars" drive through Rotterdam, but public transit company RET didn't accept that offer, saying it only allows politically neutral advertising. Probably best for the physical state of their streetcars...



And regional newspaper Tubantia today reported that many people in the Assyrian community, mainly located in the far east of the country near the German border, are moving from the CDA to the PVV, citing issues such as integration, Christians in the Middle East and Islam.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

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What


PVV is nothing close to Christianity, if they want to have future "in Christian nation" they should vote SGP not some sh**tty populists. And I am not even going to comment that Islamic Nation part.

[Zanas]

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What


PVV is nothing close to Christianity, if they want to have future "in Christian nation" they should vote SGP not some sh**tty populists. And I am not even going to comment that Islamic Nation part.

Don't try to argue with fascists. You'll find them deaf to anything rational, and eventually you'll find out they actually enjoy the argument when you're boiling.