Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new FOX Poll

AVERAGE OF LAST FIVE POLLS (this is final if no polls released tomorrow)
FOX, Monmouth, NBC, Quinnipiac, CNN

Once again Trump lead increases! Bush increases his lead over Walker for second. Cruz squeaks out tiny margin over Carson for fourth. Kasich breaks tie with Christie and now in 9th. Perry drops further behind in 11th and so rounding wouldn't get him into main debate.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========
1   Trump    21.8
2   Bush    13.2
3   Walker    11.6
4   Cruz    6.6 ↑
5   Carson    6.4
6   Huckabee    5.8
7   Paul    5.4
8   Rubio    5.2
9   Kasich    3.6 ↑
10   Christie    3.4

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry    2.2
12   Jindal    1.4
13   Santorum    1.4
14   Fiorina    1.2
15   Graham    0.6
16   Pataki   0.4
17   Gilmore   0.0

AVERAGE OF PROBABLE FINAL POLLS
(Showing just last 4 polls. Politico reports new Bloomberg coming out tomorrow morning.)
FOX, Monmouth, NBC, Quinnipiac

Same top 10 but Bush jumps past Walker for 3rd when FOX was added to other three 'final' polls. Christie extends his lead over Perry.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump    22.8
2   Bush    12.8
3   Walker    12.0
4   Carson    7.0
5   Cruz    6.5
6   Huckabee    6.0
7   Paul    5.3
8   Rubio    5.0
9   Kasich    3.5
10   Christie    3.3

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry    2.0
12   Jindal    1.3
13   Santorum    1.3
14   Fiorina    1.3
15   Graham    0.5
16   Pataki   0.3
17   Gilmore   0.0


** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Round to 1 decimal
- Treat Monmouth "<1%" as 0%

[Likely Voter]

What to watch for final Bloomberg poll
- Walker needs to outperform Bush by 4% to get 2nd place
- Cruz needs needs to outperform Carson by 3% to get 4th place
- Perry needs a miracle to get into the debate

[Likely Voter]

According to NYMag there are TWO polls coming out Tuesday....

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/polls-that-will-determine-fox-news-debaters.html

They actually list 6 polls. So if NYT/CBS really has a poll coming out, then presumably Quinni's poll would get dropped?  The Fox rules are last 5 polls, so not sure ny NYMag is listing 6.  

Removing the Quinni poll from the last 4 doesn't change things too much. Rankings stay the same in top 10 except Christie edges out Kasich for 9th but Perry is still well behind. It also makes it a bit harder for Walker to get into second and a bit easier for Cruz to get into 4th....

AVERAGE OF LAST 3 POLLS

1   Trump    23.7
2   Bush    13.7
3   Walker    11.7
4   Carson    7.3
5   Cruz    7.0
6   Huckabee    6.0
7   Paul    5.0
8   Rubio    4.7
9   Christie    3.3
10   Kasich    3.0


11   Perry    2.0
12   Santorum    1.3
13   Fiorina    1.3
14   Jindal    1.0
15   Graham    0.3
16   Pataki   0.0
17   Gilmore   0.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Averaging in Bloomberg

Chances are the 5th poll doesn't change the top 10.

1   Trump    23
2   Bush    12.75
3   Walker    10.75
4   Carson    6.75
5   Cruz            6.25
5   Huckabee    6.25
7   Rubio    5.0
8   Paul            5.0
9   Christie    3.5
10   Kasich    3.25


11   Perry    2.0
12   Santorum    1.5
13   Fiorina    1.25
14   Jindal    1.0
15   Graham    0.5
16   Pataki   0.0
16   Gilmore   0.0

[Mr. Morden]

Fox has to be relieved that the gap between 10th and 11th place is as large as it is.  Imagine if there were four candidates "tied" for 10th place, all within 0.5% of each other, or something like that.

[RogueBeaver]

Chuck Todd said on Today he's hearing that FOX is uneasy about decimals, so likelier than not there'll be an 11th podium.

[Mr. Morden]

Chuck Todd said on Today he's hearing that FOX is uneasy about decimals, so likelier than not there'll be an 11th podium.

There's no reason for an 11th podium, since the gap between 10th and 11th place is ~1%.  No decimals.  There's a smaller gap between 11th and 12th than there is between 10th and 11th.  If you're going to include Perry at #11, then why not also include Santorum at #12?

[Likely Voter]

FINAL? UPDATE with new Bloomberg and CBS/NYT Polls

AVERAGE OF LAST FIVE POLLS
CBS/NYT, Bloomberg, FOX, Monmouth, NBC

Trump up again. Bush holds his place vs Walker for 2nd. Lots of shuffling around for the 4th through 8th positions with Huckabee and Carson now tied for 4th (so who gets the central podium?). Kasich drops behind Christie into 10th. Perry still almost a full point away in 11th.  

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump    23.2
2   Bush    12.8
3   Walker    10.6
4   Carson    6.6 ↑  (tied)
5   Huckabee    6.6 ↑  (tied)
6   Cruz    6.2 ↓
7   Rubio    5.2 ↑
8   Paul    4.8 ↓
9   Christie    3.4 ↑
10   Kasich    2.8 ↓

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry    2.0
12   Santorum    1.4
13   Jindal    1.2 ↓
14   Fiorina    1.0
15   Graham    0.4
16   Pataki   0.2  (tied)
17   Gilmore   0.2  (tied)

** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Round to 1 decimal
- Treat Monmouth "<1%" as 0%



AVERAGE OF LAST FIVE POLLS (no decimals)
CBS/NYT, Bloomberg, FOX, Monmouth, NBC

Getting rid of the decimals doesn't help Perry tie for the 10th podium, but you never know what Fox will do.  

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump    23
2   Bush    13
3   Walker    11
4   Carson    7 (tied)
5   Huckabee    7 (tied)
6   Cruz    6
7   Rubio    5 (tied)
8   Paul    5 (tied)
9   Christie    3 (tied)
10   Kasich    3 (tied)

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry    2
12   Santorum    1  (tied)
13   Jindal    1  (tied)
14   Fiorina    1  (tied)
15   Graham    0  (tied)
16   Pataki   0  (tied)
17   Gilmore   0  (tied)

[Senator Cris]

Glorious news!

[Likely Voter]

Guess at podium positions

Kasich  Paul  Cruz  Carson*  Bush  Trump  Walker Huckabee*  Rubio  Christie


*tied so could be switched

[The Other Castro]

RCP also happens to be only showing these 5 polls now, so that's convenient.

[Likely Voter]

Chuck Todd said on Today he's hearing that FOX is uneasy about decimals, so likelier than not there'll be an 11th podium.

There's no reason for an 11th podium, since the gap between 10th and 11th place is ~1%.  No decimals.  There's a smaller gap between 11th and 12th than there is between 10th and 11th.  If you're going to include Perry at #11, then why not also include Santorum at #12?

It's true that regular math does not allow them a way to get Perry onto the stage (unless they did some major arbitrary poll cherry picking which would probably have to include them ignoring their own poll). However there is a very rarely used version of rounding called "floor rounding" where you round down to the nearest whole number. With that you get....

1   Trump    23
2   Bush    12
3   Walker    10
4   Carson    6 
5   Huckabee    6   
6   Cruz    6
7   Rubio    5
8   Paul    4
9   Christie    3
10   Kasich    2
11   Perry    2

12   Santorum    1
13   Jindal    1
14   Fiorina    1
15   Graham    0
16   Pataki   0 
17   Gilmore   0 

So if Fox really wants Perry in and there is a math astute guy in that room with Roger Ailes, then maybe they will pull 'floor rounding' out of their butts.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

So no Jim Gilmore?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich is in

[Bull Moose Base]

Chuck Todd said on Today he's hearing that FOX is uneasy about decimals, so likelier than not there'll be an 11th podium.

There's no reason for an 11th podium, since the gap between 10th and 11th place is ~1%.  No decimals.  There's a smaller gap between 11th and 12th than there is between 10th and 11th.  If you're going to include Perry at #11, then why not also include Santorum at #12?

It's true that regular math does not allow them a way to get Perry onto the stage (unless they did some major arbitrary poll cherry picking which would probably have to include them ignoring their own poll). However there is a very rarely used version of rounding called "floor rounding" where you round down to the nearest whole number. With that you get....

1   Trump    23
2   Bush    12
3   Walker    10
4   Carson    6 
5   Huckabee    6   
6   Cruz    6
7   Rubio    5
8   Paul    4
9   Christie    3
10   Kasich    2
11   Perry    2

12   Santorum    1
13   Jindal    1
14   Fiorina    1
15   Graham    0
16   Pataki   0 
17   Gilmore   0 

So if Fox really wants Perry in and there is a math astute guy in that room with Roger Ailes, then maybe they will pull 'floor rounding' out of their butts.

I figure they'd want Perry in to provoke Trump into an over-the-top response. But if they can't comfortably cheat Perry in, Trump will find a partner somehow.

[ElectionsGuy]

Since there's ten spots, there's really no 'middle' then, right? Trump and either Walker or Bush will be in the middle two spots.

[Matty]

when does fox release their ten folks?

[The Other Castro]

when does fox release their ten folks?

The deadline is at 5 Eastern.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

FOX is going to announce which candidates will be in which debate at 6 pm EST

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

FOX is going to announce which candidates will be in which debate at 6 pm EST

Today?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

FOX is going to announce which candidates will be in which debate at 6 pm EST

Today?

Yes.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Those who made it:

1. Trump
2. Bush
3. Walker
4. Huckabee
5. Carson
6. Cruz
7. Rubio
8. Paul
9. Christie
10. Kasich

Polls used: Bloomberg, CBS, Fox News, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University.

[Angel of Death]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/04/fox-news-announces-candidate-line-up-for-prime-time-debate/

[Likely Voter]

Interesting that FOX kicked out the NBC/WSJ poll, especially as the WSJ is also part of the Murdoch empire. The only logic I can see to it is that it had the smallest sample size (and therefore margin of error). Their original criteria never mentioned a minimal sample size or margin. CNN's average will include NBC.

Another reason they may have kicked the NBC poll out is because it was the best poll for Perry in the final five. It was the only poll in the final five where he got 3%. Instead of putting their thumb on the scale to get Perry in, they put their thumb on the scale to get him even more out. With Perry now 1.4% behind Kasich it seems more 'fair' that he was excluded (when the NBC poll was in the final five Perry was only 0.8% behind Kasich).

Here is the new average.

FOX ACTUAL AVERAGE
Polls: CBS, Bloomberg, FOX, Monmouth, Quinnipiac

=======PRIME TIME DEBATE========

1   Trump    23.4
2   Bush    12.0
3   Walker    10.2
4   Huckabee    6.6
5   Carson    5.8
6   Rubio    5.4
7   Cruz    5.4
8   Paul    4.8
9   Christie    3.4
10   Kasich    3.2

=======EARLY DEBATE========

11   Perry    1.8
12   Santorum    1.4
13   Jindal    1.4
14   Fiorina    1.2
15   Graham    0.6
16   Pataki   0.4
17   Gilmore   0.2

It is also interesting that Fox is now referring to the earlier event as a 'debate' and even showing podiums. It was originally announced as a 'forum' but maybe they are reacting again to criticism and so they will give the kiddies a real debate.

[SteveRogers]