Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

[Likely Voter]

The following list is those who (currently) qualify for the first GOP debate, being held on August 6th on FOX.

--------in------------
1   Jeb Bush   13.8
2   Rubio   12.2
3   Walker   11.2
4   Carson   9.0
5   Rand Paul   8.8
6   Huckabee   8.8
7   Cruz   7.8
8   Christie   5.0
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   2.4
--------out------------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.4
14   Pataki   1.0
15   Jindal   0.8
16   Graham   0.8

unpolled (and therefore also out): Gilmore, King, Erlich, and anyone else


based on last 5 national polls:
CNN    5/29 - 5/31
ABC/Washington Post    5/28 - 5/31
Quinnipiac   5/19 - 5/26
FOX   5/9 - 5/12
NBC/WSJ   4/26 - 4/30
(Assumes all that are polled are official candidates)

FOX doesn't actually detail which polls they accept, just that they must be "nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques" so I am assuming same list as CNN (which is all the non-partisan live phone polls)

BTW, if one of the current top 10 weren't running then both Kasich and Santorum would be in as FOX will allow for ties for 10th place. CNN has a complex tie breaker thing that I didn't bother with.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Woah, woah, woah...what happened to 12???

We better have a 6 way tie for 10th place

[King]

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

[Likely Voter]

Woah, woah, woah...what happened to 12???

We better have a 6 way tie for 10th place

12 was just a possibility being floated. But in the end FOX announced they will take just top 10. CNN is doing the same for debate #2 in September but they will have an intro debate with those who dont get into the top 10 (I think they will get less time). FOX promises that those who dont make the top 10 will get airtime on FOX.

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

There really is no way to do that. Here is the official criteria to get into the FOX debate

-    Must meet all U.S. Constitutional requirements; and
-    Must announce and register a formal campaign for president; and
-    Must file all necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC); and
-    Must have paid all necessary federal and state filing fees; and
-    Must place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by FOX News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.

If the Donald is an official candidate, then he is in. Unclear what criteria they could add to keep out Trump. ('must not have ridiculous hair'?)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

"Must not be actively giving money to the Clinton Foundation and attempting to make the Party even more ridiculous than it already is"

Also, they fix their polls
 "Woah, Kasich hit 10 the day before invites got sent out. I guess that's random error, for you. Bye Rand Paul!"

[RI]

Either or both of Trump and Christie won't run.

[Bull Moose Base]

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

Why the Hell would FOX turn down having Donald Trump for free on their network? And sharing a debate stage with Cruz, Christie, Perry and Huckabee? Huge ratings and it also helps Bush, Rubio and Walker stand out as the serious options.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

I feel sorry for the Rickster. One cycle you're winning eleven states, the next you're not qualifying for the debates.

[PPT Spiral]

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

The likelier scenario here is that both Kasich and Trump will be allowed into the debate. I suspect Kasich may get at least a one- or two-point bump by August.

Either or both of Trump and Christie won't run.

Both have too much ego and not enough humility to bow out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

Why the Hell would FOX turn down having Donald Trump for free on their network? And sharing a debate stage with Cruz, Christie, Perry and Huckabee? Huge ratings and it also helps Bush, Rubio and Walker stand out as the serious options.

This. Trump is an attraction and I'm sure FOX News doesn't give a damn if he makes a mockery of the process as long as he brings the ratings.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump better be in the debate, he will make it more enjoyable for me lol, you know besides the obvious war of words that Rand and Lindsey will exchange, not to mention Everyone vs. Bush.

[Likely Voter]

While Fox cannot change the rules arbitrarily they can manipulate something major and that is the amount of airtime they give to the bottom tier people in June and July.  The best way to get to 4-5%  is appearing on Fox News.   Someone should track how many minutes Kasich gets vs Santorum, Jindal, etc.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

At least two of Fiorina, Kasich, and Santorum will find a way in.

[Likely Voter]

The release of the new FOX poll brings up an interesting question regarding how FOX defines "the five most recent national polls." Does that mean they would allow multiple polls from the same pollster? Right now the last 5 polls includes 2 Fox polls. Depending on how they choose that distinction changes the results and could change who is in or out.

Here is the updated list with the new FOX poll...

(last 5 polls average, not allowing multiple polls from same pollster)
---------in-----------
1   Bush   11.6
2   Walker   10.8
3   Rubio   10.0
4   Carson   9.8
5   Huckabee   9.0
6   Paul   8.4
7   Cruz   7.2
8   Christie   5.0
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   2.8
---------out-----------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.6
14   Pataki   1.2
15   Graham   1.0
16   Jindal   0.8

(last 5 polls average, allowing multiple polls from same pollster)
---------in-----------
1   Bush   11.3
2   Walker   10.8
3   Rubio   10.3
4   Carson   9.0
5   Huckabee   8.8
6   Paul   8.8
7   Cruz   7.5
8   Christie   4.8
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   3.0
---------out-----------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.8
14   Pataki   1.5
15   Graham   1.3
16   Jindal   0.8

[Likely Voter]

With release of new Monmouth poll, here is latest avg of last five (live phone) polls and  who would be in or out of the FOX debate if it were being held today

---------in-----------
1   Bush   10.8
2   Walker   10.6
3   Rubio   10.0
4   Carson   9.4
5   Huckabee   8.6
6   Paul   8.2
7   Cruz   7.0
8   Christie   4.6
9   Trump   3.6
10   Perry   3.2
---------out-----------
11   Santorum   2.2
12(t)   Kasich   1.8
12(t)   Fiorina   1.8
13   Graham   1.4
14   Pataki   1.2
15   Jindal   0.8

Top 10 hasnt changed. As for the second tier, Santorum, Fiorina and Graham have all inched up a bit and Kasich and Pataki have both inched down.

[Mister Mets]

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

Trump would be good for ratings, though.

[Torie]

When Kasich announces, and gets some press, and then travels a bit, he should move into the top 10. I'm not worried. Perry should be worried, and if there is a God, Trump should be worried. Christie won't be running anyway in all probability, unless he just wants a bunch more attention before his political career is over, because he has the Trump gene in him.

[Likely Voter]

Turns out that Media Matters is tracking airtime on FOX. Their summary for May is interesting and may show why Trump is in the Top 10. Once he is a candidate, will they continue to give Trump as much airtime?



And whoever is handling Rick Perry's media strategy should be fired. Not a single appearance of FOX for a month? I can't imagine they would turn him down if he tried to get at least some airtime.

[/]

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

[dudeabides]

The following list is those who (currently) qualify for the first GOP debate, being held on August 6th on FOX.

--------in------------
1   Jeb Bush   13.8
2   Rubio   12.2
3   Walker   11.2
4   Carson   9.0
5   Rand Paul   8.8
6   Huckabee   8.8
7   Cruz   7.8
8   Christie   5.0
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   2.4
--------out------------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.4
14   Pataki   1.0
15   Jindal   0.8
16   Graham   0.8

unpolled (and therefore also out): Gilmore, King, Erlich, and anyone else


based on last 5 national polls:
CNN    5/29 - 5/31
ABC/Washington Post    5/28 - 5/31
Quinnipiac   5/19 - 5/26
FOX   5/9 - 5/12
NBC/WSJ   4/26 - 4/30
(Assumes all that are polled are official candidates)

FOX doesn't actually detail which polls they accept, just that they must be "nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques" so I am assuming same list as CNN (which is all the non-partisan live phone polls)

BTW, if one of the current top 10 weren't running then both Kasich and Santorum would be in as FOX will allow for ties for 10th place. CNN has a complex tie breaker thing that I didn't bother with.

Carly Fiornia and Trump should be switched - Fiorina is a far more serious candidate.

[TJ in Oregon]

The following list is those who (currently) qualify for the first GOP debate, being held on August 6th on FOX.

--------in------------
1   Jeb Bush   13.8
2   Rubio   12.2
3   Walker   11.2
4   Carson   9.0
5   Rand Paul   8.8
6   Huckabee   8.8
7   Cruz   7.8
8   Christie   5.0
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   2.4
--------out------------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.4
14   Pataki   1.0
15   Jindal   0.8
16   Graham   0.8

unpolled (and therefore also out): Gilmore, King, Erlich, and anyone else


based on last 5 national polls:
CNN    5/29 - 5/31
ABC/Washington Post    5/28 - 5/31
Quinnipiac   5/19 - 5/26
FOX   5/9 - 5/12
NBC/WSJ   4/26 - 4/30
(Assumes all that are polled are official candidates)

FOX doesn't actually detail which polls they accept, just that they must be "nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques" so I am assuming same list as CNN (which is all the non-partisan live phone polls)

BTW, if one of the current top 10 weren't running then both Kasich and Santorum would be in as FOX will allow for ties for 10th place. CNN has a complex tie breaker thing that I didn't bother with.

Carly Fiornia and Trump should be switched - Fiorina is a far more serious candidate.

Fiorina's problem is her resume. Trump's problem is... well what isn't Trump's problem? Money? Resume? Charisma? Policy nuance? Genuineness? Populist appeal? The maddening thing is that in our popularity contest country, people will still support a name they recognize regardless of all else.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The following list is those who (currently) qualify for the first GOP debate, being held on August 6th on FOX.

--------in------------
1   Jeb Bush   13.8
2   Rubio   12.2
3   Walker   11.2
4   Carson   9.0
5   Rand Paul   8.8
6   Huckabee   8.8
7   Cruz   7.8
8   Christie   5.0
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   2.4
--------out------------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.4
14   Pataki   1.0
15   Jindal   0.8
16   Graham   0.8

unpolled (and therefore also out): Gilmore, King, Erlich, and anyone else


based on last 5 national polls:
CNN    5/29 - 5/31
ABC/Washington Post    5/28 - 5/31
Quinnipiac   5/19 - 5/26
FOX   5/9 - 5/12
NBC/WSJ   4/26 - 4/30
(Assumes all that are polled are official candidates)

FOX doesn't actually detail which polls they accept, just that they must be "nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques" so I am assuming same list as CNN (which is all the non-partisan live phone polls)

BTW, if one of the current top 10 weren't running then both Kasich and Santorum would be in as FOX will allow for ties for 10th place. CNN has a complex tie breaker thing that I didn't bother with.

Carly Fiornia and Trump should be switched - Fiorina is a far more serious candidate.

Agreed. I'd also rather see Kasich in there instead of Carson, since I don't think Carson will fare well in the debates. But Carson is well above the line and actually led a national GOP poll last week. I just have a hard time seeing someone with no political experience get nominated.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATE: with new NBC poll

Trump and Perry have swapped places with Trump dropping down to 10th. Also Kasich has dropped to 12th (previously tied with Fiorina for 11th

=======IN========

1   Bush   13.2
2   Walker*   12.0
3   Rubio   10.8
4   Carson   9.6
5   Huckabee   8.4
6   Paul   8.2
7   Cruz   6.6
8   Christie*   4.6
9   Perry   4.0 ↑
10   Trump   2.8 ↓

=======OUT========

11   Santorum   2.2
12   Fiorina   1.8
13   Kasich*   1.6 ↓
14   Graham   1.4
15   Pataki   1.2
16   Jindal*   0.6

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Mr. Illini]

Trump!