Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[RodPresident]

Acuña was barred from election, as Julio Guzmán (young moderate hero) who was 2nd in polls. And government candidate Daniel Urresti is out too. Now, who is having momentum is Alfredo Barnechea, from traditional AP. He started political career in APRA, split with first Garcia government, supported Vargas Llosa and is in political comeback. Left-wing Verónika Mendoza is in a good position too.
Predictions for run-off scenarios:
KF vs. PPK - Leans KF
KF vs. García - Toss-up
KF vs. Barnechea - Likely Barnechea
KF vs. Mendoza - Likely KF

[Vega]

I think PPK could surge actually. I don't know where you get that Barnechea has any momentum, though.

[RodPresident]

I think PPK could surge actually. I don't know where you get that Barnechea has any momentum, though.

By polls in Spanish wikipedia. Latest poll from Datum:
MoE: +/- 2.8%
KF: 37%
PPK: 14%
Barnechea: 9%
Mendoza: 8%
Garcia: 7%
Toledo: 1%
Others: 6%
Spoiled: 6%
Undecided: 12%
PPK is in a clear 2nd, but he's unsafe. And Brazil problems are spilling on Peru.

[jaichind]

Acuña was barred from election, as Julio Guzmán (young moderate hero) who was 2nd in polls. And government candidate Daniel Urresti is out too. Now, who is having momentum is Alfredo Barnechea, from traditional AP. He started political career in APRA, split with first Garcia government, supported Vargas Llosa and is in political comeback. Left-wing Verónika Mendoza is in a good position too.
Predictions for run-off scenarios:
KF vs. PPK - Leans KF
KF vs. García - Toss-up
KF vs. Barnechea - Likely Barnechea
KF vs. Mendoza - Likely KF

The same poll had KF vs PPK second round with KF ahead 46-34.

[Simfan34]

Erm, so it's looking like Keiko might be barred as well...

[Simfan34]

Okay, this is turning into a s--tshow. PPK may be disqualified as well, also for giving out prizes.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol, I assume Garcia will be the only candidate left at this rate. What a farce.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Keiko Fujimori, the front-runner in Peru’s presidential election, was cleared of trying to buy votes, saving the election from slipping into farce after two other leading candidates were barred and another accused of irregularities.

Fujimori didn’t offer or hand out money or gifts in exchange for votes, government news agency Andina reported, citing a ruling by the Lima Centro 1 electoral board. The ruling follows allegations she participated in a ceremony where a member of her Fuerza Popular party gave prize money to the winners of a dance contest.

[Vega]

(Bloomberg) --
Keiko Fujimori, the front-runner in Peru’s presidential election, was cleared of trying to buy votes, saving the election from slipping into farce after two other leading candidates were barred and another accused of irregularities.

Fujimori didn’t offer or hand out money or gifts in exchange for votes, government news agency Andina reported, citing a ruling by the Lima Centro 1 electoral board. The ruling follows allegations she participated in a ceremony where a member of her Fuerza Popular party gave prize money to the winners of a dance contest.

Coincidentally, that member of her party was her brother, Kenji Fujimori.

Her main challenger, PPK (Pedro Pablo Kuczynski) is also on the chopping block, though given that his case is rather similar to Fujimori's, I imagine he'll be okay.

[seb_pard]

New poll from Datum/Peru21



On the right is the %s without residual votes and undecideds.

Good for Mendoza! She is now fighting for second place

[jaichind]

Its pretty sad how low down in the polls former Presidents Toledo and Garcia are.

[Vega]

Its pretty sad how low down in the polls former Presidents Toledo and Garcia are.

Is it, though? I can't say I'm all that surprised. Toledo barely ever cracked the 30s in approval ratings after his first year in office, and Garcia, well, people are sick of him.

I think Peru should abolish term limits or enshrine absolute ones. It is rather annoying to see the same show of failed ex-Presidentes every year. Humala or his wife will probably end up running in 2020.

Peruvians forget to easy.

[RodPresident]

Garcia + Flores are in a very shameful position for people who get a good voting in last two Presidential elections.
Mendoza's problem is that she would get smashed at any runoff. Maybe she get some loan voters from KF in order to put weaker candidate in runoff.
New poll by Voxpopuli http://larepublica.pe/impresa/politica/755759-alfredo-barnechea-empata-segundo-lugar-con-kuczynski-en-encuesta-de-vox-populi
Keiko: 31.2%
Kuczynski: 14.1%
Barnechea: 12.9%
Mendoza: 10.9%
Garcia: 7.3%
Runoff scenarios
PPK vs. KF: 47.1% to 35.9%
AB vs. KF: 44.6% to 39.1%
KF vs. VM: 41.9% to 37.6%  

[jaichind]

Its pretty sad how low down in the polls former Presidents Toledo and Garcia are.

Is it, though? I can't say I'm all that surprised. Toledo barely ever cracked the 30s in approval ratings after his first year in office, and Garcia, well, people are sick of him.

I think Peru should abolish term limits or enshrine absolute ones. It is rather annoying to see the same show of failed ex-Presidentes every year. Humala or his wife will probably end up running in 2020.

Peruvians forget to easy.

It is not surprising given their track record but it is pretty sad. No idea why they are running only to do this badly.

[ag]

Its pretty sad how low down in the polls former Presidents Toledo and Garcia are.

Is it, though? I can't say I'm all that surprised. Toledo barely ever cracked the 30s in approval ratings after his first year in office, and Garcia, well, people are sick of him.

I think Peru should abolish term limits or enshrine absolute ones. It is rather annoying to see the same show of failed ex-Presidentes every year. Humala or his wife will probably end up running in 2020.

Peruvians forget to easy.

It is not surprising given their track record but it is pretty sad. No idea why they are running only to do this badly.

"Track record" has nothing to do with it. Toledo's term was full of great successes for Peruvian economy - and he ended it extremely unpopular. Garcia had an awful first term and a very decent second. If "track record" had anything to do with political success in Peru, he would have never had a second term at all (his first was an unmitigated disaster), but, having gotten it, would have had much better chances now (his last term was pretty decent on most measures).  If anything, Peruvian voters seem to like disastrous presidencies and hate success stories.

[seb_pard]

The problem in Peru is not that the people are fools and like candidates with bad records or they forget too easy. As a peruvian told to my dad, they vote against candidates. For example, in 2006 they voted for Alan Garcia (I still remember listening they day after his victory on Radio Cooperativa when they said "Alan Garcia elected as president, after destroying the country in the 80's") to avoid a Ollanta Humala's government (I remember those times and he was a very extreme candidate strongly influenced by his father). During the last half of the 2000's he moderated his rhetoric to appeal to broader electorate and the people voted for him because they were afraid of Keiko Fujimori (Mario Vargas Llosa said in 2011 that the runoff between Humala and Fujimori was like to choice between Cancer and AIDS but he voted for Humala because he hated the Fujimoris).

Is very sad for peruvians to have this kind of politics as there's no strong left or right wing coalition to support, just very narcissistic politicians that run every 4 years.

[Velasco]

Demonstrations against Keiko Fujimori in Lima and other places

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/06/peru-anti-fujimori-protests-days-ahead-of-elections

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Keiko Fujimori 40.8%

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 19.9%

Veronika Mendoza 18.4%

Adolfo Barnechea 9.4%

Alan Garcia 6.3%

Gregorio Santos 2.2%

Others 3%

Possible runoffs:

KF vs PPK: PPK 43% / KF 41%

KF vs VM: KF 45% / VM 39%

KF vs AB: KF 45% / AB 38%

KF vs AG: KF 50% / AG 18%

http://www.ipsos.pe/sites/default/files/opinion_data/OpinionData030416.pdf

[jaichind]

Exit polls

Ipsos

Fujimori    37.8%
PPK           20.9%
Mendoza    20.3%

GFK

Fujimori    39.9%
PPK           20.6%
Mendoza    20.3%

PPK-Mendoza in a statistical tie.

[jaichind]

CPI exit poll has

Fujimori    39.1%
PPK           19.7%
Mendoza    18.8%

[Vega]

http://peru21.pe/resultados-elecciones-2016?ref=presidencial-nacional

Live results with map.

[jaichind]

If the exit polls mostly matches final results which means PPK is somewhat more likely than Mendoza, and if Fujimori is defeated on the second ballot then PPK would have overcome the largest every gap in a two round election to win.  The largest gap ever overcome on the first round I can think of is France 1974 where incumbent d'Estaing was behind Mitterrand 43-33 on the first round but came back to win 51-49 on the second round.  PPK or Mendoza would have to overcome a gap twice as large even if most of both voting blocs seems to prefer each other than Fujimori.

[jaichind]

http://peru21.pe/resultados-elecciones-2016?ref=presidencial-nacional

Live results with map.

Thanks.  Even so far it seems that it just has the Ipsos exit polls filled in.  Although the having the exit poll breakdown by district is very useful.

[jaichind]

It seems at 9PM Lima time ONPE will have 30% of the results released.  But that is a full 5 hours after polls closed.  Looks like we will not know who made it into the second round until tomorrow.

[jaichind]

Looking at the second round of 2011 Peru elections exit it seems Fujimori was systematically underestimated by a % or so.  Back then Fujimori was projected around 47.4% of the vote by all three exit pollsters in exist polls against Humala but actually ended up with 48.6%.  Same thing for the first round when 3 exist pollsters had Fujimori at around 21.5%-22% but she ended up with 23.6%.  Using these biases it seems likely that Fujimori most likely crossed 40% this time.

[jaichind]

Looks like the same Ipsos exit poll has Fujimori's FP party winning 60 out of 130 seats in the Congress.  It also has PPK's party, also called PPK with 25 seats. 

As I pointed out before, looking at FP's logo


Makes it clear what the party is about. 

But I just realized it is the same on PPK's side.  The PPK's party logo


Also makes it clear what this party is all about.