Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016

[Simfan34]

There will be a presidential election in Peru on 10th of April, 2016. It appears that Peruvian presidential elections take place on the 2nd Sunday in April, and I don't know if that's changed, but am assuming it has not. Incumbent President Ollanta Humala is term-limited and as such cannot run for re-election. And that's just as well, because he isn't doing all too well.

Now, I know fairly little about Peruvian politics (compared to what others here probably know and what I know about other countries' politics), but people seem interested to discuss this so I've opened this thread- and I hope those more informed will provide the insights I cannot. Thus I warn you that much of what I'll say about what the Peruvian electorate may or may not think is pure conjecture. Now, as I wrote elsewhere,

Humala's flailing performance would seem to make Keiko a shoo-in, but, as I know he's not up for re-election and that the fact Peru does not have a two party system means that her main opponent would not necessarily have to defend Humala's record. She still might get a "I-told-you-so" boost of sorts, then again people genuinely worried that Humala would turn out to be a "21st century socialist" in the mold of Correa, Chavez or Kirchner (if I remember correctly, the Lima Stock Exchange had the worst trading day in its history when he was elected), which lead to the highly polarized election in 2011, but may be baggage her opponent does not carry.

I actually would probably have to backtrack on my pronunciation of Keiko as a "shoo-in", for there are, after all, multiple parties bound to run multiple candidates, to say the least.

[Simfan34]

Those rivals being:

Popular Force (Fuerza Popular) (National conservative, "Fujimorist")

My inexpert mind is tempted to write off the Fuerza Popular as merely being the personalist electoral vehicle of Keiko Fujimori- daughter of former President/dictator Alberto Fujimori- but the free market conservatism known as "Fujimorism" is clearly subscribed to by many Peruvians and the party  is undoubtedly the largest right-of-center force in Peruvian politics. Indeed, they are the second largest party in Parliament.

Keiko Fujimori will obviously be their candidate, and will benefit from both having lost to a candidate whose presidency has turned out rather badly, and from what I assume will be an ability to present an ideological break from the kinds of policies that have bogged Humala down. However, her strong performance in 2011 was in large part due from the Humala's polarizing nature as a seemingly far-leftist-- she probably being even more polarizing. As a result, she might fail to attract the same level of support against a more established figure like Garcia and Kuczynski.

Peru Wins (Gana Perú) (Democratic socialist, [ethnic] nationalist)

The ruling coalition, which will probably change its name if not membership for the next election, comprises a number of left-wing parties, first and foremost the Nationalist Party, of which Humala is member, which mixes revolutionary socialism with a nationalism heavily derived from country's Inca heritage, largely directed towards the Quechua people who make up the bulk of Peru's indigenous population, which accounts for about 2/5ths of the population. The other members of the coalition are standard socialist and communist parties- the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, and so forth- with a large ex-military element.

The thing is, however, despite this alliance, Humala has not turned out to be a Peruvian Evo Morales, and has instead governed rather moderately. Which, it seems, has not gone too well for him- he's gone through 6 prime ministers and is currently sitting at around 25% approval. Thus his coalition does not seem well position to win in 2016. Indeed, both of its two most likely candidates- former Interior Minister and retired general Daniel Urresti, and Nadine Heredia, Humala's wife- are currently besmirched in scandal, the former accused of killing a journalist in the 1990s and the latter for money laundering.

APRA - Peruvian Aprista Party (Partido Aprista Peruano) (Social democratic)

The APRA (which means "American Popular Revolutionary Alliance") is one of the oldest political parties in Peru, originally founded as a socialist revolutionary movement in the 1920s. Like many such parties, it has moderated its views towards social-democracy. Despite its longevity, the fortunes of the APRA seems to have become rather closely linked to that of former President Alan Garcia, who served two non-consecutive terms as President- in 2006 when he was elected a second time, it won 36 seats in the Congress, while in 2011, when it did not field a candidate, it won just 6.

Thus, unsurprisingly, it seems that they are looking to Alan Garcia to run for yet another term. And it seems that he is very much interested, having said such as far back as 2008. While his first stint in the '80s was marred by hyperinflation and unrest- paving the way for Fujimori's rise to power- his second saw rapid economic growth and stability. This would make him a very strong contender- and he would only be 66 next year- but the last years of his second term were marred by several scandals and political defeats (which contributed to their poor performance in the legislative elections and non-performance presidentially). He reportedly has enlisted Hernando de Soto- who advised Fujimori on economic policy- as an adviser, which suggests he will tack even further to the middle

The following profiles need some work:

Peru Possible (Perú Posible) (Liberal, centrist)

The party of Alejandro Toledo, president from 2001 to 2006, who ran in 2011 and may run yet again, either way is likely to field its own candidate.

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (Independent, center-right Christian democrat)

Capable administrator and technocrat, but with an American wife, American passport, and former career as an American investment banker, is ill-suited to gain the support of the wider population outside of the urban elite. The coalition backing him- which may or may not re-form- has 12 seats in parliament.


Overall I'd say it's likely to go down to Garcia and Keiko. And therein lies the challenge. Keiko can count on the support of support of the urban middle class, and can count out the support of most indigenous peoples- they having often been targeted during her father's war against the Shining Path. But Fujimori's and Garcia's coalitions seem to have largely overlapped (both Fujimoris), as both drew the bulk of their support in prior elections from the mestizo majority. Humala won with the support of poorer mestizos, but he had strong support from indigenous groups, something Garcia will likely not have, at least to such a degree. This will require closer analysis of prior results and ethnic voting patterns- so if anyone knows more than I, please share!

[Simfan34]

Maybe I conceded too much in regards to Keiko's chances, as this Ipsos-El Comercio poll released April 19th would suggest:

Fujimori Kuczynski Garcia Toledo Urresti Acuna Canseco Others NOTA Don't know

32% 14% 11% 7% 6% 3% 2% 10% 7% 8%

[Prince of Salem]

For an inexpert mind, you've given a perfect description about Fuerza Popular.

The Gana Perú coalition is dead. The Nationalist Party is very likely to stand alone in the upcoming election. If it even stands.

Kuczynski already has a standing third party. He'll most likely be a great contender.

I doubt Toledo will run again. He looks doomed at this point.

I don't know why the press isn't mentionting Acuña and his Alianza para el Progreso (which is a single party, not a real alliance ). Curious thing.

There's a potential dark horse called Julio Garcia. Let's see how that goes.

Great thread, Simfan! Greetings from Peru

[Vega]

I don't know how to feel about Fujimori. It seems like there is a good deal of debate about whether he was a dictator or not... but in either case, perhaps his daughter could turn out to be like Park Geun-hye.

I suppose, as of right now, I'm rooting for whoever Peru Possible puts up.

[Prince of Salem]

I don't know how to feel about Fujimori. It seems like there is a good deal of debate about whether he was a dictator or not... but in either case, perhaps his daughter could turn out to be like Park Geun-hye.

I suppose, as of right now, I'm rooting for whoever Peru Possible puts up.

Perú Posible won't put anyone that isn't Toledo But right now their existance as a party seems to be in doubt. The closest we could have right now to a liberal presidential candidate could be Nadine Heredia (current first lady) or Julio García if he ever emerges.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't know how to feel about Fujimori. It seems like there is a good deal of debate about whether he was a dictator or not... but in either case, perhaps his daughter could turn out to be like Park Geun-hye.

I suppose, as of right now, I'm rooting for whoever Peru Possible puts up.

Why would you support Bernie Sanders in the US but the ultimate neo-liberal in Peru?

[warandwar]

I don't know how to feel about Fujimori. It seems like there is a good deal of debate about whether he was a dictator or not... but in either case, perhaps his daughter could turn out to be like Park Geun-hye.

I suppose, as of right now, I'm rooting for whoever Peru Possible puts up.

Yeah, besides the forced sterilizations, public corruption, extrajudicial killings and making me choke up in my grandparents car after the end of the audiobook of Bel Canto, there's so much to like!

[Famous Mortimer]

Fujimori is unquestionably a dictator. It's just that outside of the richest first world countries, being a dictator isn't a deal breaker.

He's in jail for some extrajudicial killings carried out by the military. Worst case scenario though, these killings were simply a mistake. Fujimori's own claim is that the people killed were Shinning Path sympathizers, in which case, no one would even care.

As for the corruption, that's a legit issue but it's a poor Latin American country, everyone is corrupt. So it's not that big an issue.

Fujimori was eventually chased out of power but it wasn't really for anything he did in particular. Every president of Peru for the last 20 years has ended their term with approval ratings in the single digits.

Short of magically making everyone rich, there's really nothing a Peruvian politician can do to avoid being hated once in office.

[warandwar]

Fujimori is unquestionably a dictator. It's just that outside of the richest first world countries, being a dictator isn't a deal breaker.

He's in jail for some extrajudicial killings carried out by the military. Worst case scenario though, these killings were simply a mistake. Fujimori's own claim is that the people killed were Shinning Path sympathizers, in which case, no one would even care.

As for the corruption, that's a legit issue but it's a poor Latin American country, everyone is corrupt. So it's not that big an issue.

Fujimori was eventually chased out of power but it wasn't really for anything he did in particular. Every president of Peru for the last 20 years has ended their term with approval ratings in the single digits.

Short of magically making everyone rich, there's really nothing a Peruvian politician can do to avoid being hated once in office.

He was chased out for a fairly specific reason: he demanded to get a third term, counter to his own constitution, and proceeded to run elections viewed as completely illegitimate.

You're implying with your language that Peru, by nature of its own culture, is corrupt. That's not a great thing to say, but it's certainly a common view about non-first world countries in the United States. What really troubles me is that you see the "worst case" scenario of killing innocent people as "simply a mistake." By saying this you are not only downplaying a fairly heinous action (Is Kent State "simply a mistake"?) but also putting Peruvian lives on a lower level than American ones. Do you really view "accidently" killing Peruvians as not that much of a problem? Are their lives worth less because of where they live? Is Fujimori's unpopularity the fault of Peruvians, who hate anyone that doesn't "magically make them rich?"
It seems like you believe in Worthington's Law (a Mr. Show reference I think you'll get): More Money = Better Than

[Gekkonidae]

Hello.
Well...I'm afraid that the next president of Peru will be Alan Garcia. Or Keiko Fujimori.
I think it's sad. In my opinion, both suck.
Toledo and Kuczynski have less possibilities to win because most of the people prefer APRA and Fuerza Popular, and that preference is because there are too much people who don't know about the past of these groups. Alan (APRA) was a terrible president during his first period (1985-1990) and Keiko is Alberto Fujimori's daughter. Maybe somebody will say "but she isn't Alberto Fujimori", yes, she's not him, but she is following her father's path.

[Famous Mortimer]

Fujimori is unquestionably a dictator. It's just that outside of the richest first world countries, being a dictator isn't a deal breaker.

He's in jail for some extrajudicial killings carried out by the military. Worst case scenario though, these killings were simply a mistake. Fujimori's own claim is that the people killed were Shinning Path sympathizers, in which case, no one would even care.

As for the corruption, that's a legit issue but it's a poor Latin American country, everyone is corrupt. So it's not that big an issue.

Fujimori was eventually chased out of power but it wasn't really for anything he did in particular. Every president of Peru for the last 20 years has ended their term with approval ratings in the single digits.

Short of magically making everyone rich, there's really nothing a Peruvian politician can do to avoid being hated once in office.

He was chased out for a fairly specific reason: he demanded to get a third term, counter to his own constitution, and proceeded to run elections viewed as completely illegitimate.

You're implying with your language that Peru, by nature of its own culture, is corrupt. That's not a great thing to say, but it's certainly a common view about non-first world countries in the United States. What really troubles me is that you see the "worst case" scenario of killing innocent people as "simply a mistake." By saying this you are not only downplaying a fairly heinous action (Is Kent State "simply a mistake"?) but also putting Peruvian lives on a lower level than American ones. Do you really view "accidently" killing Peruvians as not that much of a problem? Are their lives worth less because of where they live? Is Fujimori's unpopularity the fault of Peruvians, who hate anyone that doesn't "magically make them rich?"
It seems like you believe in Worthington's Law (a Mr. Show reference I think you'll get): More Money = Better Than

Richard Nixon was never put on trial for Kent State. Nor do I think most people think he should have been.

[warandwar]

Fujimori is unquestionably a dictator. It's just that outside of the richest first world countries, being a dictator isn't a deal breaker.

He's in jail for some extrajudicial killings carried out by the military. Worst case scenario though, these killings were simply a mistake. Fujimori's own claim is that the people killed were Shinning Path sympathizers, in which case, no one would even care.

As for the corruption, that's a legit issue but it's a poor Latin American country, everyone is corrupt. So it's not that big an issue.

Fujimori was eventually chased out of power but it wasn't really for anything he did in particular. Every president of Peru for the last 20 years has ended their term with approval ratings in the single digits.

Short of magically making everyone rich, there's really nothing a Peruvian politician can do to avoid being hated once in office.

He was chased out for a fairly specific reason: he demanded to get a third term, counter to his own constitution, and proceeded to run elections viewed as completely illegitimate.

You're implying with your language that Peru, by nature of its own culture, is corrupt. That's not a great thing to say, but it's certainly a common view about non-first world countries in the United States. What really troubles me is that you see the "worst case" scenario of killing innocent people as "simply a mistake." By saying this you are not only downplaying a fairly heinous action (Is Kent State "simply a mistake"?) but also putting Peruvian lives on a lower level than American ones. Do you really view "accidently" killing Peruvians as not that much of a problem? Are their lives worth less because of where they live? Is Fujimori's unpopularity the fault of Peruvians, who hate anyone that doesn't "magically make them rich?"
It seems like you believe in Worthington's Law (a Mr. Show reference I think you'll get): More Money = Better Than

Richard Nixon was never put on trial for Kent State. Nor do I think most people think he should have been.

Since you're cherry picking one example from that, I'm going to assume you don't actually care that you're using neocolonialist language.
My point was that Kent State is universally viewed as a national tragedy, even though it was a "mistake". Do you see where I'm going here? It's almost like reading the wikipedia summary of Fujimori won't give you the full picture.

[Famous Mortimer]

Fujimori is unquestionably a dictator. It's just that outside of the richest first world countries, being a dictator isn't a deal breaker.

He's in jail for some extrajudicial killings carried out by the military. Worst case scenario though, these killings were simply a mistake. Fujimori's own claim is that the people killed were Shinning Path sympathizers, in which case, no one would even care.

As for the corruption, that's a legit issue but it's a poor Latin American country, everyone is corrupt. So it's not that big an issue.

Fujimori was eventually chased out of power but it wasn't really for anything he did in particular. Every president of Peru for the last 20 years has ended their term with approval ratings in the single digits.

Short of magically making everyone rich, there's really nothing a Peruvian politician can do to avoid being hated once in office.

He was chased out for a fairly specific reason: he demanded to get a third term, counter to his own constitution, and proceeded to run elections viewed as completely illegitimate.

You're implying with your language that Peru, by nature of its own culture, is corrupt. That's not a great thing to say, but it's certainly a common view about non-first world countries in the United States. What really troubles me is that you see the "worst case" scenario of killing innocent people as "simply a mistake." By saying this you are not only downplaying a fairly heinous action (Is Kent State "simply a mistake"?) but also putting Peruvian lives on a lower level than American ones. Do you really view "accidently" killing Peruvians as not that much of a problem? Are their lives worth less because of where they live? Is Fujimori's unpopularity the fault of Peruvians, who hate anyone that doesn't "magically make them rich?"
It seems like you believe in Worthington's Law (a Mr. Show reference I think you'll get): More Money = Better Than

Richard Nixon was never put on trial for Kent State. Nor do I think most people think he should have been.

Since you're cherry picking one example from that, I'm going to assume you don't actually care that you're using neocolonialist language.
My point was that Kent State is universally viewed as a national tragedy, even though it was a "mistake". Do you see where I'm going here? It's almost like reading the wikipedia summary of Fujimori won't give you the full picture.

I'm using the example you provided.

I don't know what neo-colonial language you're talking about in this instance. I'm treating Peru the same way I would treat the US. If the US Air Force accidentally dropped a bomb on some random citizen's house I would assume it was a horrible mistake and I would not hold Obama personally responsible.

No, I don't see where you are going. Just because the military did something bad, it does not mean the president is personally responsible. The president might be in charge of overall military strategy but rarely do they mico-manage every individual military action.

[warandwar]

Fujimori is unquestionably a dictator. It's just that outside of the richest first world countries, being a dictator isn't a deal breaker.

He's in jail for some extrajudicial killings carried out by the military. Worst case scenario though, these killings were simply a mistake. Fujimori's own claim is that the people killed were Shinning Path sympathizers, in which case, no one would even care.

As for the corruption, that's a legit issue but it's a poor Latin American country, everyone is corrupt. So it's not that big an issue.

Fujimori was eventually chased out of power but it wasn't really for anything he did in particular. Every president of Peru for the last 20 years has ended their term with approval ratings in the single digits.

Short of magically making everyone rich, there's really nothing a Peruvian politician can do to avoid being hated once in office.

He was chased out for a fairly specific reason: he demanded to get a third term, counter to his own constitution, and proceeded to run elections viewed as completely illegitimate.

You're implying with your language that Peru, by nature of its own culture, is corrupt. That's not a great thing to say, but it's certainly a common view about non-first world countries in the United States. What really troubles me is that you see the "worst case" scenario of killing innocent people as "simply a mistake." By saying this you are not only downplaying a fairly heinous action (Is Kent State "simply a mistake"?) but also putting Peruvian lives on a lower level than American ones. Do you really view "accidently" killing Peruvians as not that much of a problem? Are their lives worth less because of where they live? Is Fujimori's unpopularity the fault of Peruvians, who hate anyone that doesn't "magically make them rich?"
It seems like you believe in Worthington's Law (a Mr. Show reference I think you'll get): More Money = Better Than

Richard Nixon was never put on trial for Kent State. Nor do I think most people think he should have been.

Since you're cherry picking one example from that, I'm going to assume you don't actually care that you're using neocolonialist language.
My point was that Kent State is universally viewed as a national tragedy, even though it was a "mistake". Do you see where I'm going here? It's almost like reading the wikipedia summary of Fujimori won't give you the full picture.

I'm using the example you provided.

I don't know what neo-colonial language you're talking about in this instance. I'm treating Peru the same way I would treat the US. If the US Air Force accidentally dropped a bomb on some random citizen's house I would assume it was a horrible mistake and I would not hold Obama personally responsible.

No, I don't see where you are going. Just because the military did something bad, it does not mean the president is personally responsible. The president might be in charge of overall military strategy but rarely do they mico-manage every individual military action.

My point is that you're devaluing Peruvian lives. It's not about the specific actions that occured, but your decision to call killing innocent people "simply a mistake".
Groupa Collina was a death squad. Fujimori set it up with the express desire to, you know, cause people to die. He personally authorized their actions, if you're caught up in the details.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/world/americas/08fujimori.html?_r=0

You don't drop a bomb by accident, you do it for a reason. Whether it kills the people you intended it to kill or not, you have still made the irrevocable decision to drop the bomb. Perhaps some of the children killed by Groupa Collina were engaged in terrorist activities. Perhaps everyone was. That doesn't change Fujimori's decision to create a death squad that operated in secret. He pulled the trigger right there. By marginalizing the fact that he did this, you marginalize the suffering caused by these actions. Your finger moves on top of Fujimori's, and you slowly press down at the same time he does. Why do you press?
Maybe you did it by accident.
You really don't know what you're talking about.

[Famous Mortimer]

Again, I'm not devaluing Peruvian lives. I'm valuing them exactly as much as I would value American or any other lives. You're still claiming otherwise, although you haven't actually made any arguments to that effect.

[warandwar]

Again, I'm not devaluing Peruvian lives. I'm valuing them exactly as much as I would value American or any other lives. You're still claiming otherwise, although you haven't actually made any arguments to that effect.

Then you are a nihilist.

[jaichind]

Looks like a poll back in July has



1.- Keiko Fujimori 31%
2.- Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 12%
3.- Alan García 8%
4.- Alejandro Toledo 4%
5.- Cesar Acuña 3%
5.- Daniel Urresti 2%
6.- Mauricio Diez Canseco 2%
7.- Humberto Lay 2%
8.- Gregorio Santos 1%

I cannot believe how many times Alan García will keep on trying to come back after two pretty bad terms.  Of course his first 1985-1990 term was the true disaster.  And even he is the youngest of the top non-Fujimori tier of PPK, himself and Toledo.   

[jaichind]

I like how Fujimori's party, Fuerza 2011, has as its logo just the letter K.



Just to show who is the boss of this party, Kieko Fujimori.

[tpfkaw]

Nice to see the child slavery advocates are out in full force.

Thankfully, most Peruvians are against child slavery.

[Vega]

I like how Fujimori's party, Fuerza 2011, has as its logo just the letter K.



Just to show who is the boss of this party, Kieko Fujimori.

Also Kenji Fujimori, the son. It's a logo that certainly sends a message.

[H. Ross Peron]

I find it amusing the two leading candidates are Japanese and Polish. Also wtf is up with PPK's logo?

[Famous Mortimer]

I find it amusing the two leading candidates are Japanese and Polish. Also wtf is up with PPK's logo?

Looks like a guinea pig. They are a common animal in Peru. Lots of parties use chickens or cows as logos.

[Velasco]

I like how Fujimori's party, Fuerza 2011, has as its logo just the letter K.



Just to show who is the boss of this party, Kieko Fujimori.

Is Keiko a Kirchnerista?

[warandwar]

I find it amusing the two leading candidates are Japanese and Polish. Also wtf is up with PPK's logo?

Looks like a guinea pig. They are a common animal in Peru. Lots of parties use chickens or cows as logos.

Chicken of the Andes