Guatemalan general election - 13 September 2015/25 October Run-Off/Morales wins

[ag]

2,416 out of 19,582 precincts reporting (12.3%)

FCN 25.8%
LIDER 21.7%
UNE 19.2%
TODOS 6.9%
Blank votes 5.6%
Invalid votes 4.4%

Almost nothing, yet, from Guatemala City. Pretty close fight for the second spot.

[ag]

3549 precincts (18.1%) reporting

FCN 25.6%
LIDER 21.2%
UNE 19.2%
UNE 6.9%

[ag]

4,227 precincts (21.6%)

Jimmy Morales FCN 25.5%
Manuel Baldizon LIDER 20.9%
Sandra Torres UNE 19.0%
Lizardo Sosa TODOS 6.8%
Blank votes 5.4%
Zury Rios VIVA 4.9%
Invalid votes 4.3%

[ag]

Unless I am misunderstanding something, TSE is reporting the incredible turnout of 97%!

[ag]

A chunk of Guatemala City has arrived, and it does change things, though not much:

8261 precincts reporting (42.2%)
Jimmy Morales FCN 26.3%
Manuel Baldizon LIDER 18.5%
Sandra Torres UNE 17.2%
Alejandro Giammattei FUERZA 7.5%
Zury Rios VIVA 6.4%
Lizardo Sosa TODOS 6.0%
Blank votes 4.7%
Invalid votes 3.9%

[ag]

Have to go to bed, but, so far the results, with 9,543 precincts reporting (48.7%)

Jimmy Morales FCN 26.5%
Manuel Baldizon LIDER 18.1%
Sandra Torres UNE 17.0%
Alejandro Giammattei FUERZA 7.9%
Zury Rios VIVA 6.7%
Lizardo Sosa TODOS 5.8%
Blank votes 4.6%
Invalid votes 3.8%

The second spot has been stable, but it is far from guaranteed. The margin between the second and the third is around 25,000 votes, and it has shrunk a bit recently. Still quite a fight for the run-off.

[RodPresident]

If Torres fails to make into runoff, things can get very ugly, with fraud accusations.

[Famous Mortimer]

If Torres fails to make into runoff, things can get very ugly, with fraud accusations.

Why do you say that? Torres wasn't favored to make it to the run-off in the first place.

[politicus]

With 85.66% of percents counted it is still close, but it looks like Torres will miss the run-off:


Torres   772,609   18.23%
Baldizon   799,545   18.87%

[politicus]

90.7% of precincts in:

Torres   835,200   18.60%
Baldizon   861,281   19.19%

I doubt Torres will make it (unless there are some very lopsided areas left)

http://elecciones2015.tse.org.gt/resultados-2015/

[politicus]

This is gonna go down to the wire. With 95.28% of precincts counted it is:

Torres   903,929   19.18%
Baldizon   914,956   19.41%

[politicus]

At 96.24% of precincts counted Torres is catching up. Less than 3,000 between them now:

Torres   921,976   19.37%
Baldizon   924,626   19.43%

[Zanas]

Well that's it, UNE has overcome LIDER :

UNE 928,998 19.46%
LIDER 927,700 19.43% !

That's with 96.58% counted.

Do y'all really think turnout can really actually be 98 %, or is it just a fluke of badly counting the total of registered voters to begin with ?

[Hash]

Turnout is currently 69.6% and should be over 70% when all stations have reported.

[Zanas]

Turnout is currently 69.6% and should be over 70% when all stations have reported.

Ah, yes, I see that now, ag's post earlier misled me.

[politicus]

Do y'all really think turnout can really actually be 98 %, or is it just a fluke of badly counting the total of registered voters to begin with ?

Huh?

Where do you get that from. It is:

Votos Válidos: 4,777,059   90.84%
Votos Nulos:   218,795   4.16%
Votos Blancos:   262,880   5.00%
Votos Emitidos:   5,258,734   69.59%

Votantes Inscritos:   7,556,873

[ag]

Turnout is currently 69.6% and should be over 70% when all stations have reported.

Ah, yes, I see that now, ag's post earlier misled me.

I had been misled by Prensa Libre - and made a point of registering my doubts. The report said, " abstension at 3%" (using a typical turn for those not showing up). They must have missed a zero.

[ag]

930,590 for Torres vs. 928,110 for Baldizon. Very unexpected!

But it looks like it could be a proper  left/right second round.

[ag]

When Torres's husband was president, the government produce a great series of books on Guatemalan history and literature. One reason for me to support her this time

[ag]

Tightening again.

Torres 931,133
Baldizon 929,123

[warandwar]

930,590 for Torres vs. 928,110 for Baldizon. Very unexpected!

But it looks like it could be a proper  left/right second round.

Does Jimmy Morales have specifically right-wing positions?

[ag]

930,590 for Torres vs. 928,110 for Baldizon. Very unexpected!

But it looks like it could be a proper  left/right second round.

Does Jimmy Morales have specifically right-wing positions?

Not really. Positions are rare in Guate. But, at least, he is not merely a "transportista".

[Zanas]

When Torres's husband was president, the government produce a great series of books on Guatemalan history and literature. One reason for me to support her this time

I actually was sightseeing in Guatemala during her husband's 2007 victorious campaign, I followed the election closely in the papers, Guatemala is a very political nation it seems, they have signs posted or even painted nearly everywhere, even in very very remote places, and although I was rooting for UNRG and Menchu over him, he was my candidate of choice for the runoff, so I guess I'll be supporting her as well.

[ag]

When Torres's husband was president, the government produce a great series of books on Guatemalan history and literature. One reason for me to support her this time

I actually was sightseeing in Guatemala during her husband's 2007 victorious campaign, I followed the election closely in the papers, Guatemala is a very political nation it seems, they have signs posted or even painted nearly everywhere, even in very very remote places, and although I was rooting for UNRG and Menchu over him, he was my candidate of choice for the runoff, so I guess I'll be supporting her as well.

Well, I was there a month ago. Yeah, they are very much into politics.

[Hash]

930,590 for Torres vs. 928,110 for Baldizon. Very unexpected!

But it looks like it could be a proper  left/right second round.

Does Jimmy Morales have specifically right-wing positions?

No. An article in this week's ever-excellent Semana magazine quoted a Guatemalan academic who described him as a 'clown without a team or a credible manifesto', whose only appeal in the current context is that he is a political neophyte (former TV personality/comedian type) unconnected to the corrupt political class (the same guy aptly described him as the 'voto nulo personified'). In other words, he seems like the kind of village idiot who, if elected, will inevitably turn out to be a terribly incompetent crook who will run the country down the drain.