Guatemalan general election - 13 September 2015/25 October Run-Off/Morales wins

[Famous Mortimer]

Guatemala will hold presidential and legislative elections on September 13th. Presidents are limited to a single term so incumbent Otto Pérez Molina of the military based Patriotic Party cannot run again. His party will instead run former Housing Minister Alejandro Sinibaldi. Despite his right-wing background, Pérez surprised many by recently coming out in favor of drug legalization.

Zury Ríos Montt, the daughter of former dictator Efraín Ríos Montt and wife of former US Congressman Jerry Weller, has also announced she is running. Her father long controlled a major political party called the Guatemalan Republican Front but she is running for a new party called Vision with Values, which represents her Evangelical Christian base.

The second place finisher from last time, businessman Manuel Baldizón, is another candidate. He leads a party called Renewed Democratic Liberty (LIDER), its ideology is vague and could be generously called populist. It supports free money for everyone, the death penalty, and loves soccer.

Sandra Torres, is the other main candidate. She represents the National Unity for Hope founded by former President Álvaro Colom, who started his political career as a Communist rebel. Torres was Colom's wife. She divorced him in 2011 and attempted to succeed him as president, as a way of getting him an unofficial second term. Everyone saw through this transparent move though and she was barred from running by the Supreme Court. This time she will be allowed though. I can't find a firm source on whether or not she and her husband have given up their charade and re-married though.

Another interesting candidate is Roberto Alejos. Alejos was a member of Colom's National Unity for Hope but left to found his own ostensibly social democratic party called Todos (Us All). He is in an alliance though, with the Grand National Alliance. The Grand National Alliance is a coalition of conservative parties. It elected President Oscar Berger back in 2003. Back then the alliance included the current president's Patriotic Party but they have since parted ways. So basically this alliance is technocratic neo-liberals of varying ideology.

Roberto González Díaz-Durán is an economist who was Energy Minister under Oscar Berger. He heads a party called Commitment, Renewal and Order (CREO, "I believe" in Spanish), I assumed based on its candidate's economics background that this was another generic neo-liberal party but now I'm not so sure. They actually came in third in the last election, running Eduardo Suger, a physicist who advocated higher taxes for the rich and foreign troops to stop drug trafficking. Suger had previously been the presidential candidate of Authentic Integral Development, a party that was once aligned with the ex-rebel Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity.

Luis Fernando Pérez is a former congressman who somehow managed to take over Rios Mott's Guatemalan Republican Front away from Rios Mott. He has since re-named it as the Institutional Republican Party (PRI) and adopted a logo that looks like the Mexican PRI's logo.

Mario Estrada Orellana is the candidate of the Nationalist Change Union. He is a proxy candidate of former President Alfonso Portillo, who was president from 2000 to 2004. Portillo had briefly been a Communist rebel in the 70s and was probably the most leftist Guatemalan president in the last 20 years. Inexplicably he was elected for the Guatemalan Republican Front as a proxy candidate for Rios Montt. Needless to say, he has since split with Rios Montt and also spent some time in US jail for financial crimes. Another thing Portillo is famous for is having killed two people in a bar fight and bragging about it during his campaign.

[Famous Mortimer]

Now I'll attempt to profile the parties, which are very fluid in Guatemala.

The Patriotic Party was founded by current President Otto Pérez Molina. Otto Pérez Molina was a general during the civil war and as such, his base is the military. However, he is more moderate than one would expect. There are serious war crimes accusations against him but most of them are accusations of complacency rather than actually doing things himself. He also took part in the coup that overthrew the particularly brutal Rios Montt and advocated for a negotiated settlement with Communist guerrillas years before it happened. Also, the drug stuff. It's even joined a bunch of international liberal groups rather than conservative or Christian democratic ones. Initially, the Patriotic Party was one of three parties in President Oscar Berger's Grand National Alliance, which represented the respectable (non-Montt) right. The alliance feel apart during Berger's term though. The Patriot Party currently holds a plurality in the Congress.

National Unity for Hope was founded by Álvaro Colom who had run for president several times under the banner of the former rebel group Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity. Colom felt that the post-Communist party's history was holding him back so he founded a new party without any baggage (or ideology). While its stated positions are vague-to-center-right (also, very Christian-y because TOTALLY NOT COMMUNIST), because it contains a lot of ex-rebels and because most of the other parties in Guatemala are right wing, it often ends up looking relatively centre-left. In the last election, it was ran a joint list with the remains of the Grand National Alliance, which had been its main rival in the early 2000s.

Todos (Us All) was founded by Roberto Alejos. Alejos had been a member of the Revolutionary Party, a reformist party in the 60s that later allied with military governments in the 70s and 80s. He was elected to Congress for National Unity for Hope, being a notable member of that party who wasn't linked to the Communist insurgency. Despite that he appears to have positioned his new party slightly to the left of National Unity for Hope (which is basically just a personalist vehicle for Colom and his wife), although he still doesn't call himself a socialist. Guatemalans seem to be terrified of leftism at the same levels as Estonia or Latvia, don't know why. Todos took over a small Green party in order to get registration and they also took their old party's partnership with the Grand National Alliance when they left.

Renewed Democratic Liberty (LIDER), as I said, doesn't have much of a concrete ideology. In the last election, when it faced off against the Patriotic Party, it was seen as the de facto left-wing choice. Although now it's up for debate who's more left-wing even just between those two. Most sources now call the party "centre-right" although it's certainly not a neo-liberal, Washington Consensus party.

I also found out Zury Ríos Montt's Vision with Values party is actually pre-existing. Hilariously, it ran in an alliance last election with the Encounter for Guatemala, an indigenous party which had previously fielded Rigoberta Menchú for President (she has since left the party). The two parties have overlapping constituencies because most Evangelical Protestants in Guatemala are also indigenous people.

[Famous Mortimer]

Big news in the last 24 hours.

Huge corruption scandal in the Patriotic Party.

Presidential candidate Alejandro Sinibaldi has renounced the party!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Famous Mortimer]

Here's a poll from 6 months ago, commissioned by the Patriotic Party:

Manuel Baldizón (LIDER) 43%
Alejandro Sinibaldi (Patriotic Party) 35.2
Sandra Torres (National Unity for Hope) 14.6
Roberto González (CREO) 3.4
Zury Ríos Montt (Vision with Values) 2.2
Roberto Alejos (TODOS) 2

http://www.elperiodico.com.gt/es/20141020/pais/3600/Baldiz%C3%B3n-y-Sinibaldi-competir%C3%ADan-en-segunda-vuelta-si-las-elecciones-se-realizaran-hoy.htm

[ag]

Guatemalan vice-president resigned yesterday, because of corruption allegations.

[ag]

I have spent a few days in Guatemala this week. Not because of elections, but did see the campaign in full swing. Will try to get some observations out within the next few days.

[Famous Mortimer]

Updated list of candidates according to Spanish Wikipedia:

Mario Estrada (Nationalist Change Union, Alfonso Portillo proxy party)
Roberto Gonzalez (Commitment, Renewal, Order, vaguely conservative)
Manuel Baldizón (Renewed Democratic Liberty, vaguely left-wing populist demagoguery)
Lizardo Sosa (Todos or Us All, vaguely social democrat)
Luis Pérez (Institutional Republican Party, conservative)
Sandra Torres (National Unity for Hope, vaguely non-conservative)
Mario Garcia (Patriotic Party, corrupt moderate conservative)
Jose Lopez (Encounter for Guatemala, vaguely left-wing, indigenous interests)
Jimmy Morales (National Convergence Front, vaguely right-wing populist demagoguery)
Alejandro Giammattei (Force, conservative)
Juan Gutierrez (National Advancement Party, conservative)
Miguel Sandoval (Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity, former left-wing rebel group)
Anibal Garcia (New Republic Movement, left-wing)
Zury Rios (Vision with Values, dictator apologia)

A recent poll:

Jimmy Morales (National Convergence Front) 31.5
Alejandro Giammattei (Force) 12.6
Sandra Torres (National Unity for Hope) 12.1
Mario Estrada (Nationalist Change Union) 7.1
Manuel Baldizón (Renewed Democratic Liberty) 6.4
Zury Rios (Vision with Values) 5.8
Roberto Gonzalez (Commitment, Renewal, Order) 3.7
Luis Pérez (Institutional Republican Party) 3.5
Lizardo Sosa (Todos or Us All) 1.7

A month before that:

Manuel Baldizón (Renewed Democratic Liberty) 44.1
Jimmy Morales (National Convergence Front) 19.8
Sandra Torres (National Unity for Hope) 17.3
Zury Rios (Vision with Values) 5
Roberto Gonzalez (Commitment, Renewal, Order) 4

It seems Jimmy Morales and his new vague populist party have taken the place of Manuel Baldizón and his old vague populist party.

[Famous Mortimer]

[Famous Mortimer]

So we have Baldizón crashing and a lot of his votes going to Morales, it looks like.

Former First Lady Torres remaining stable at about 15%

Giammattei is doing surprisingly well for a guy who has run for president multiple times for different parties each time. He only got 1% last time. He seems to be the choice of establishment rightists.

González and Zury seem to be polling consistently albeit low.

No one else is really a factor. Except maybe Anibal Garcia, the leftist candidate. He was the running mate of Rigoberta Menchu when she ran.

[ag]

This looks like an internet poll.

[Famous Mortimer]

This looks like an internet poll.

Oops. I should have realized that with my rudimentary Spanish skills. I just wanted to post a cool graphic.

[Famous Mortimer]

I have spent a few days in Guatemala this week. Not because of elections, but did see the campaign in full swing. Will try to get some observations out within the next few days.

Don't forget about this.

[ag]

Ok

It was a work trip, so I did not have much time to observe: and Guatemalan papers are not extremely high quality, which will be reflected in the quality of my reporting The general opinion seems to be that Baldizon is ahead, but I am not entirely certain how much of that is polls, and how much is the overall impression of inevitability. A big preoccupation is with candidates being disqualified for criminal record. There is a push from some quarters to disqualify even those in the "pre-indictment stage" ("anteproceso"), which would include Baldizon's VP.

A more interesting issue that occupies newspapers (and is partially related with the disqualification) is the electoral reform. Believe it or not, they are still trying to change the rules. Mostly, this has to do with regulating party changing and reelection. Apparently, some "social coalition" has submitted a proposal, which the electoral tribunal modified, and which is currently before the outgoing congress. Newspapers are full of calls for protests if it does not get approved. And, of course, the city is full of demonstrations by the parties: never the easiest city to get around, it is worse than usual.

I will look up the papers I brought with me to give some taste of the sort of the news that is out there. Though, of course, the most memorable headline while I was there was "1537 killed from motorcycles during the current administration". Really makes you look around when you hear a motor Still, I love Guatemala

[Famous Mortimer]

President arrested 2 days before election.

[politicus]

President arrested 2 days before election.

On what charges?

[Famous Mortimer]

Corruption, most of the articles don't go more in depth than that, so probably pretty boring.

This wasn't a surprise though. It had been a long time coming. It's just kind of odd that they went through with it 2 days before he became a lame duck.

[ag]

Basically, there was a ring involved in tax- and, mostly, customs-evasion. Ostensibly, the key person in the ring was the private secretary to the former VP Baldetti. They had previously arrested a whole bunch of people: including the ex-VP and around 20 other top civil servants. Late in August there was some tape made public that was viewed as conclusively linking Perez Molina to the ring. The Congress was unanimous in stripping him of immunity - perhaps, his lame-duckness played a role, but, clearly, his political support has evaporated.

[Famous Mortimer]

Happening today. Media is reporting this as a contest between Baldzon and Jimmy Morales.

[politicus]

Happening today. Media is reporting this as a contest between Baldzon and Jimmy Morales.

Its about 4.25 PM in Guatamala now. When do they close?

[ag]

Closed 7 min ago.

[ag]

Apparently, by noon, with 6 hours to go, the turnout was already over 50%.

[ag]

Results should start appearing soon here

http://www.tse.org.gt/

[ag]

First actual results. Staggering 33 out of 19,582 precincts reporting (0.17%)

FCN 27.0%
LIDER 17.0%
UNE 16.4%
TODOS 6.3%
UCN 5.1%
PP 4.9%
Blank votes 4.0%
Invalid votes 3.8%

I will, for the moment, only report those who do better than blank.

[ag]

261 out of 19,582 precincts reporting (1.33%)

FCN 25.2%
LIDER 18.9%
UNE 15.4%
TODOS 6.3%
Blank votes 5.4%
PP 4.7%
UCN 4.4%
Invalid votes 4.2%

[ag]

745 out of 19,582 precincts reporting (3.8%)

FCN 26.9%
LIDER 21.4%
UNE 18.0%
TODOS 7.4%
Blank votes 5.6%
PP 5.0%
Invalid votes 4.3%