Manitoba election 2016

[lilTommy]

The Liberals aren't going to win much if all of their strength is in rural Manitoba where the PCs will win most seats.

Looks like a 6th Liberal candidate has dropped out? I've lost count
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-kurt-berger-resignation-1.3519868

[136or142]

The Liberals aren't going to win much if all of their strength is in rural Manitoba where the PCs will win most seats.

Looks like a 6th Liberal candidate has dropped out? I've lost count
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-kurt-berger-resignation-1.3519868

Who has run the more incompetent campaign, Cam Broten or Rana Bokhari?

[DC Al Fine]

The Liberals aren't going to win much if all of their strength is in rural Manitoba where the PCs will win most seats.

Looks like a 6th Liberal candidate has dropped out? I've lost count
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-kurt-berger-resignation-1.3519868

Who has run the more incompetent campaign, Cam Broten or Rana Bokhari?

In absolute terms Bokhari, but Broten's was worse once you adjust for the Manitoba Liberals being a minor third party, and the SK NDP being a major party.

[trebor204]

Latest Poll from Mainstreet Research


MANITOBA (decided), (March 31th Results)
•PC 50%  (47)
•NDP 25% (23)
•Liberal 16% (23)
•Green 9% (7)

UNDECIDED: 22%

WINNIPEG (decided and leaning),(March 31th Results)

•PC 46% (40)
•NDP 29% (27)
•Liberal 16% (25)
•Green 9% (

REST OF MANITOBA (decided and leaning), (March 31th Results)

•PC 55% (53)
•Liberal 20% (22)
•NDP 16% (15)
•Green 9% (9)



http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/06/new-poll-tories-poised-to-win-big

[136or142]

Latest Poll from Mainstreet Research


MANITOBA (decided), (March 31th Results)
•PC 50%  (47)
•NDP 25% (23)
•Liberal 16% (23)
•Green 9% (7)

UNDECIDED: 22%

WINNIPEG (decided and leaning),(March 31th Results)

•PC 46% (40)
•NDP 29% (27)
•Liberal 16% (25)
•Green 9% (

REST OF MANITOBA (decided and leaning), (March 31th Results)

•PC 55% (53)
•Liberal 20% (22)
•NDP 16% (15)
•Green 9% (9)



http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/06/new-poll-tories-poised-to-win-big

Liberals in collapse.  Is there going to be a debate?

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow. This is definitely good news.

I do wonder if Selinger will lose his seat Broten-style. I actually hope so, because I loathe him. I want the NDP to do well, but I want Selinger gone. How well do you think the NDP would be doing if Selinger had lost the leadership spill last year? Probably not leading, but maybe at ~30%.

If I lived in St. Boniface, I'd be voting Green TBH.

[lilTommy]

Wow. This is definitely good news.

I do wonder if Selinger will lose his seat Broten-style. I actually hope so, because I loathe him. I want the NDP to do well, but I want Selinger gone. How well do you think the NDP would be doing if Selinger had lost the leadership spill last year? Probably not leading, but maybe at ~30%.

If I lived in St. Boniface, I'd be voting Green TBH.

Selinger dug his own grave... It sucks because the NDP should never had indicated they would not raise taxes last election. It was a bad policy move, good politics but people rightfully see this as a broken promise/at worst a lie. I support the PST increase because that's proven to be good policy when it came to funding massive infrastructure in the province, but guy didn't sell the idea at all.
The NDP is running on some good policies, so I'd still vote NDP... esp over the other two.

Like Pallister is pulling a Ford "...Brian Pallister said he would have to check his schedule when he was asked if he would follow the lead of NDP Premier Greg Selinger. Selinger was the first Manitoba premier to participate in Pride celebrations two years ago."
Given this country has two gay premiers, for a party leader to say he's maybe OK with this?

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't get me wrong, I'd still vote NDP, just not if I lived in Selinger's riding.

And I don't support increasing the PST... it's a regressive tax that hurts the middle/working class more than the wealthy. Definitely not something a social democratic party should support, even if it is a $$$ maker.

[DC Al Fine]

Don't get me wrong, I'd still vote NDP, just not if I lived in Selinger's riding.

And I don't support increasing the PST... it's a regressive tax that hurts the middle/working class more than the wealthy. Definitely not something a social democratic party should support, even if it is a $$$ maker.

Agreed. VAT increases indicate that a party is moving in the 'well off centrist' direction.

[DL]

Wow. This is definitely good news.

I do wonder if Selinger will lose his seat Broten-style. I actually hope so, because I loathe him. I want the NDP to do well, but I want Selinger gone. How well do you think the NDP would be doing if Selinger had lost the leadership spill last year? Probably not leading, but maybe at ~30%.

If I lived in St. Boniface, I'd be voting Green TBH.

I really don't think it matters whether Selinger wins his own seat or not. He will be gone if the NDP loses the election and i agree - good riddance!

It was clear from the outset that this was going to be a PC win and that after 17 years in power, the NDP's time was up. The danger was that they would not only lose but get eclipsed by the Liberals whihc would have been a longterm threat. Now that Rana Bokhari has totally self-destructed its clear that while the NDP will lose power, they will also remain the official opposition and likely have a decent number of seats. At 16% and falling the Liberals will likely end up with just 1 or 2 seats.

Pallister is no Brad Wall. He is not popular at all and is likely to make a lot of very unpopular moves - he could easily be another Sterling Lyon (see wikipedia). 

[136or142]

In policy matters, to the degree that I follow other provinces, Greg Selinger is probably my favorite Premier.  His raising the sales tax after he said he wouldn't unfortunately makes him Premier Bonehead II (Mike Harcourt was Premier Bonehead I.)  

A year ago, cabinet minister Kevin Chief was assumed to be the obvious replacement for Selinger, I don't know if that is still the case.  

I'll  add that the polls prior to the uprising by the Gang of Five, the NDP was slowly rising in the polls and back up to nearly 30%.  Had it not been for this foolish move that they themselves admitted they didn't do on the basis of principle but merely on the basis that they didn't believe that the NDP could win the next election under Selinger, the party would clearly be in a stronger position in the polls than they are now.  There have been a lot of boneheaded cabinet ministers in Canadian history, but none so named.  I'd like to nominate the Gang of Five as bonehead cabinet ministers one through five.

[adma]

At 16% and falling the Liberals will likely end up with just 1 or 2 seats.

What's the likelihood that they could be blanked altogether?  That is, if the PC toploading is enough to blank even Jon Gerrard...

[trebor204]

Another Poll


http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/pcs-hold-commanding-lead-in-manitoba-election-poll-1.2850218

Manitoba
PC 46
NDP 28
LIB 20
GREEN 6


Wpg
PC 38
NDP 34
LIB 21
Other 7


Rural

PC 59
NDP 18
LIB 19
Other 4

[lilTommy]

Another Poll


http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/pcs-hold-commanding-lead-in-manitoba-election-poll-1.2850218

Manitoba
PC 46
NDP 28
LIB 20
GREEN 6


Wpg
PC 38
NDP 34
LIB 21
Other 7


Rural

PC 59
NDP 18
LIB 19
Other 4

Is this an outlier for Winnipeg? I have yet to see the NDP above 30% in the city, and 34%! ... the PCs cannot let the NDP "win" in Winnipeg if they hope to have any hope at winning the election. This looks to be more old-NDP voters who went to the PCs coming back to the PCs, since the Liberal vote looks to be steady (up from some other polls which peg them at about 16%)
Looking back at past polling, the NDP have been on a very steady upswing in Winnipeg... this election, if trends continue could be closer then many people think. In fact the PCs could win the popular vote and lose the seat count.

[DL]

There was a Mainstreet poll two weeks ago that had the NDP and PCs tied in Winnipeg - but its not enough for the NDP just to tie in Winnipeg since the PCs will likely win all but 3 or 4 seats in rural Manitoba.

[lilTommy]

There was a Mainstreet poll two weeks ago that had the NDP and PCs tied in Winnipeg - but its not enough for the NDP just to tie in Winnipeg since the PCs will likely win all but 3 or 4 seats in rural Manitoba.

Oh agreed; I was trying to find the 2011 results for Winnipeg, but the NDP needs to win over 50% in the city to hold the ridings they would need to win ( think that was about what they pulled in Winnipeg in 2011).
29 seats is a win, the NDP can lose 8. The North is not going anywhere really, so that's 7-8 the NDP keeps. The NDP is likely to lose 2 of the 4 rural/south (posted prior Brandon West and Selkirk likely to stay NDP)
IF the NDP keeps increasing their support in the city, above 40%, the seats the PCs can win (with a strong-ish Liberals vote) become very few... Southdale, Kirkfield Park, St.Norbert, Seine River are the most likely to go PC right now... after that?
Tyndall Park to the LIBs, Fort Rouge is still way too close, LIB/NDP toss. - The NDP needs to keep both, and the PCs need to win over Reiver Heights somehow... bit of a rant

[Pragmatic Conservative]

New Poll
March28th-April 7th
PC 49%
NDP 24%
Liberal 22%
Green 5%

No regional Breakdowns
http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/11/tories-keep-cruising-in-polls

[DC Al Fine]

Manitoba election: Greg Selinger, Rana Bokhari reveal tax returns, Pallister calls it 'stunt'

Selinger calls Pallister homophobic in final days of election, says leader would implement a 'Harper-style' agenda

Selinger's throwing up Hail Mary's now. Pallister hasn't said anything to cost him the election.

On another note, I learned I make more money than Rana Bokhari from this debacle

[trebor204]

New Poll
March28th-April 7th
PC 49%
NDP 24%
Liberal 22%
Green 5%

No regional Breakdowns
http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/11/tories-keep-cruising-in-polls

Breakdown for Winnipeg only (no results for Rural Manitoba)

PC 43
NDP 28
LIB 24

http://www.cjob.com/2016/04/11/131276/

[trebor204]

Another Poll:

Insights West (Apr 5-7)

http://www.insightswest.com/news/manitoba-progressive-conservatives-hold-sizeable-lead/

http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Election_MB_01_Tables.pdf

Manitoba:

PC 49
NDP 26
LIB 17
Green 7
Other 1

Region Breakdown:

Winnipeg:
PC 49
NDP 28
LIB 15
Green 4
Other 0

Rural:
PC 50
NDP 23
LIB 20
Green 5
Other 1

[DC Al Fine]

Protester Riley McMurray has filed a police report alleging Brian Pallister assaulted him on his way to a campaign event. McMurray, you might recall was one of those protesters who crashed an earlier Pallister rally and held up some banners as Mr. Pallister spoke.

CBC has video from McMurray's cell phone of the altercation if you want to see for yourself.

[RogueBeaver]

Grabbing a phone is assault? Maybe he should've given him a Shawinigan Handshake.

[trebor204]

Post Debate Polling (Mainstreet)


http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/pallister-wins-election-debate-new-poll-1.2856815

Who Won Debate:

Brian Pallister, PC - 44%
Greg Selinger, NDP - 24%
James Beddome, Green - 19%
Rana Bokhari, Lib - 4%
Undecided - 10%

Who would you vote for (DEBATE WATCHES)

PC   47%
NDP 23
Green 8%
LIB 5%
Undecided  - 17%

Decided:
PC  56.6
NDP 27.7
Green 9.6
LIB - 6.0

[Hatman 🍁]

Of interest:

[DL]

I always wonder - how representative are "debate watchers" of all voters? Only a relatively small minority of people actually watch the leaders debates and i just wonder if they are a cross-section of the population or if they skew male or older etc....

Post Debate Polling (Mainstreet)


http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/pallister-wins-election-debate-new-poll-1.2856815

Who Won Debate:

Brian Pallister, PC - 44%
Greg Selinger, NDP - 24%
James Beddome, Green - 19%
Rana Bokhari, Lib - 4%
Undecided - 10%

Who would you vote for (DEBATE WATCHES)

PC   47%
NDP 23
Green 8%
LIB 5%
Undecided  - 17%

Decided:
PC  56.6
NDP 27.7
Green 9.6
LIB - 6.0