Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[Krago]

PCPO: 76,376 members. Brown ahead - he claims 40,414 - but Elliott insists he only leads in 20 ridings.

Here's the map from the Elliott campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

Two thoughts.

1) There ought to be a law that campaign charts and maps have useful legends. A 30-60 category is useless to me

2) I'm kind of surprised that most of Elliot's crap seats are in the GTA

[Hatman 🍁]

You'd think all of the Simcoe ridings would be purple.

[Boston Bread]

You'd think all of the Simcoe ridings would be purple.

Brown isn't well known enough outside Barrie. It doesn't surprise me that he isn't having a favourite son affect in the rural Simcoe ridings. He is focusing instead on GTA/immigrant groups because he knows that's a huge untapped reservoir for the PCs.

Elliott isn't a bad fit for the region, either. Simcoe is ancestrally Tory, but at the same time it's less so-con than the other Tory bastions in the Southwest and East. Look at how Simcoe swung towards Wynne in 2014.

[RogueBeaver]

Former MP Brian Jean is the new WRP leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

You'd think all of the Simcoe ridings would be purple.

Brown isn't well known enough outside Barrie. It doesn't surprise me that he isn't having a favourite son affect in the rural Simcoe ridings. He is focusing instead on GTA/immigrant groups because he knows that's a huge untapped reservoir for the PCs.

Thought McNaughton would have some strength among immigrants. I mean, Rob Ford endorsed him!

[Boston Bread]

lol MacLeod.

How fitting.

[Boston Bread]

If forum is any indication, Ontario's party support levels are going back to pre-2014 levels.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/255/liberal-voters-moving-to-ndp-parties-tied
34% PC
29% LIB
27% NDP
8% GRN

Elliott is, not surprisingly, the most electable. With her as leader, the PCs get 36%.
Brown as leader gets only 30%.
McNaughton fares the worst as expected, at 29%, tied with the NDP.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Are the Ontario PC's using a points system where each riding has equal weight?

[RogueBeaver]

PCPO: Brown announces the support of Burney and Godfrey.

[RogueBeaver]

PCPO: McNaughton drops out. Brown claimed yesterday he has identified 46k supporters and is on track to win.

[lilTommy]

If forum is any indication, Ontario's party support levels are going back to pre-2014 levels.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/255/liberal-voters-moving-to-ndp-parties-tied
34% PC
29% LIB
27% NDP
8% GRN

Elliott is, not surprisingly, the most electable. With her as leader, the PCs get 36%.
Brown as leader gets only 30%.
McNaughton fares the worst as expected, at 29%, tied with the NDP.

Environics Poll seems to show the same thing
http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=884

33% PC
32% LIB
27% NDP
7% Others

They have regional's:

Toronto
33% NDP
30% LIB
27% PC
10% OTHER

905
37% PC
31% LIB
27% NDP
5% OTHER

North
45% NDP
28% LIB
16% PC
11% Other

Eastern Ontario
40% PC
38% LIB
18% NDP
3% Other

Southwestern Ontario
33% PC
23% LIB
26% NDP
9% Other

"In other interesting data from the poll, Environics found that when it comes to the PCs, men make up a larger share of their supporters than females. In contrast, the NDP counts more women than men among their supporters. And equal numbers of men and women make up the Liberal contingent of decided voters." - this surprises no one

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

[lilTommy]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

[RogueBeaver]

Elliott calls Brown all sorts of names for out-organizing her. If Brown wins, who will surrender their seat?

[136or142]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

[lilTommy]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

I wish they would, but sadly I think the party has not taken that position... I believe they had a "study" into it which showed not much in terms of savings but I have a hard time believing that. I think you would find the idea of a single school board popular among the membership more then it is being expressed

[MaxQue]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

I wish they would, but sadly I think the party has not taken that position... I believe they had a "study" into it which showed not much in terms of savings but I have a hard time believing that. I think you would find the idea of a single school board popular among the membership more then it is being expressed

I'm pretty sure the Constitution doesn't allow it.

[136or142]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

I wish they would, but sadly I think the party has not taken that position... I believe they had a "study" into it which showed not much in terms of savings but I have a hard time believing that. I think you would find the idea of a single school board popular among the membership more then it is being expressed

I'm pretty sure the Constitution doesn't allow it.

Newfoundland and Labrador had a provincial referendum that voted in favor of eliminating them.

[MaxQue]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

I wish they would, but sadly I think the party has not taken that position... I believe they had a "study" into it which showed not much in terms of savings but I have a hard time believing that. I think you would find the idea of a single school board popular among the membership more then it is being expressed

I'm pretty sure the Constitution doesn't allow it.

Newfoundland and Labrador had a provincial referendum that voted in favor of eliminating them.

Quebec had that reform too, both in both cases, everyone was in agreement with the reform, due to their specific situations. I don't think Catholics would agree in Ontario.

[136or142]

The NDP is in first place in Toronto? Do Torontonians feel bad for nearly wiping out the party there?

They should! I lost my damned MPP, who is amazing btw, to a yes-man back-bencher... yes, I am still smarting
But it goes to show that the NDP is not yet as dead in the city as many in the media and Liberals would have us believe. The NDP has been pushing more of its traditional policies since the election though such as being firm again Privatization, linking the OLP to the TO school boards funding issues and school closures and pushing anti-fracking.

How about eliminating the Catholic School Board?

I wish they would, but sadly I think the party has not taken that position... I believe they had a "study" into it which showed not much in terms of savings but I have a hard time believing that. I think you would find the idea of a single school board popular among the membership more then it is being expressed

I'm pretty sure the Constitution doesn't allow it.

Newfoundland and Labrador had a provincial referendum that voted in favor of eliminating them.

Quebec had that reform too, both in both cases, everyone was in agreement with the reform, due to their specific situations. I don't think Catholics would agree in Ontario.

The Catholic Church opposed the referendum in NFLD.

[Linus Van Pelt]

So, this happened yesterday:



Yes, that is Narendra Modi, taking a detour from his official diplomatic schedule, to attend a campaign rally in Barrie, Ontario for a candidate for the leadership of the Ontario provincial PC party who is attempting to defeat the party establishment's candidate using suburban-Toronto BJP connections in a mass membership drive.

[Hatman 🍁]

Endorsements from Gretzky and now Modi?  Look out for the Brown train!

[RogueBeaver]

Wednesday's PQ debate was a hilarious food fight.

[RogueBeaver]

UdM's Pierre Martin on the tasks awaiting PKP.