Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[RogueBeaver]

In order to avoid excessive clutter of the General Discussion thread.

MB: Selinger shut out in the delegate count thus far.

[RogueBeaver]

Checking Twitter, looks like Oswald and Ashton slates won all today's ridings. Selinger is 0/9.

[King of Kensington]

I met Ashton once and quite liked him.  He also seems to be more of a "traditional social democrat" - if such a thing exists anymore. 

[RogueBeaver]

ON: MacLeod endorses Elliott.

QC: Our would-be Berlusconi heckled a rock concert, demanding the Anglo band sing in French. When they didn't, he stomped off. He also won't say if he'll give up direct control of Quebecor (spoiler: no).

[RogueBeaver]

MB: Ashton wins Elmwood. Score now 105-73-0 Ashton, but Selinger could win 2 bunches tomorrow.

[Hatman 🍁]

These are how the other meetings went:
Oswald: St.Vital, Seine River, Southdale, Riel
Ashton: Rossmere

[RogueBeaver]

Selinger expected to win Point Douglas, maybe St. James. Local CUPE, which gets 288 delegates, has endorsed him.

[RogueBeaver]

Selinger wins Point Douglas, but didn't field a full slate in St. James.

[RogueBeaver]

MB: Selinger is 1/12.

[trebor204]

MB: After Sundays contests
Ashton and Oswald both with 105 delegates
Selinger has 34  delegates

Oswald won Minto (19) and St James (13)
Selinger won Point Douglas (34)

Coming Up:
Monday: *Interlake (14) and Modern-Winkler (5)
Tuesday: *Gimli (15), Charleswood (6), Lakeside (5) and Tuxedo (13)
Wednesday:*Dawson Trail (6), Arthur-Virden (6), La Verendrye (5), Sprucewoods (5)  and Steinbach (5)
Thursday: *Fort Richmond (18) and *Kildonan (21)
Friday: *Brandon East (13), Brandon West (9) and *St. Johns (20)
* - NDP held seat

[Hatman 🍁]

Map:

[Hatman 🍁]

The Winnipeg firefighters union, which gets 25 delegates has backed Ashton. For the record, CUPE gets 288 delegates, and labour as a whole gets 691. (I wonder if that's "labour" or actually "affiliated groups" which tend to always be labour.) 

[136or142]

So, who you all rooting for?

[DC Al Fine]

I kind of want to see Selinger go down in flames on election night so Selinger.

[trebor204]

I don't really care wins. Most likely who ever wins will resign as party leader once the party is destroyed next April. I expect Oswald to lose her seat, Selinger might keep his seat, and Ashton will probably keep his seat.

Monday's results:
Ashton wins Interlake (14) and Modern-Winkler (5)

Ashton 124
Oswald 105
Selinger 34 

Tuesday: *Gimli (15), Charleswood (6), Lakeside (5) and Tuxedo (13)

Selinger has a chance at Gimli with Cabinet Minister Peter Bjornson supporting him.


Wednesday:*Dawson Trail (6), Arthur-Virden (6), La Verendrye (5), Sprucewoods (5)  and Steinbach (5)
Thursday: *Fort Richmond (18) and *Kildonan (21)
Friday: *Brandon East (13), Brandon West (9) and *St. Johns (20)
* - NDP held seat

[Hatman 🍁]

So, who you all rooting for?

Oswald, I guess.

[lilTommy]

So, who you all rooting for?

Oswald, I guess.

Oswald or Ashton... Selinger made a mess things, he made the mistake during the election to promise not raise the PST and then did a poor, poor arse job selling the hike (which actually was a good decision)

It would be interesting to see a Premier from outside of Winnipeg and an old timy-whimy Social Democrat at that.
Not to sure about Oswald, I think she's the not-Ashton not-Selinger choice, My gauge is shes more left (barely) of Selinger but the Wynne style progressive. Ashton seems the more reformist of the bunch.

Frankly the NDP might win again; the PCs are terrible, the Liberals are non-existent (but a wild card)... remember its all about Winnipeg, the NDP will likely lose the popular vote but win the seats (all being in Winnipeg and the 5-6 Norther ridings Including Selkirk and Gimli) AGAIN it depends on who wins and how the election goes...Selinger, I see the NDP lose. Oswald or Ashton, it's a maybe

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated map:

[Boston Bread]

So, who you all rooting for?

Oswald. Moreso anybody but Selinger. Anything to reduce the chance of a PC government.

[lilTommy]

Updated map:

That seems very close.. do we have all the delegate numbers totaled thus far?
Oswald - 7 Ridings
Ashton - 6 Ridings
Sellinger - 1 Riding

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated map:

That seems very close.. do we have all the delegate numbers totaled thus far?
Oswald - 7 Ridings
Ashton - 6 Ridings
Sellinger - 1 Riding

trebor just posted them, but that's excluding the labour pledged delegates so far :

CUPE (288): Selinger
UFFW (25): Ashton (United Firefighters of Winnipeg)

Always nice to see Winnipeg's bravest as NDP supporters.

[King of Kensington]

So, who you all rooting for?

Ashton

[136or142]

I don't really care wins. Most likely who ever wins will resign as party leader once the party is destroyed next April. I expect Oswald to lose her seat, Selinger might keep his seat, and Ashton will probably keep his seat.

Even in the 1988 election when the party fell to third and won just 23% of the vote, they won 12 of the 57 ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated map:

Selinger wins Gimli, Oslwald wins Charleswood and Lakeside, Ashton wins Tuxedo

[Hatman 🍁]

Delegate totals so far (count down to 2221!), as reported by Alice Funke:

Selinger: 351 (most of which coming from CUPE)
Ashton: 169
Oswald: 126

UFCW is the next big union that will make an endorsement, they have 160 delegates. They're expected to go to Ashton. The Steelworkers are also expected to go to Ashton.

I'm starting to think Ashton will win. Oswald is only winning suburban ridings with few members, and has no union support so far.