Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

BTW, we still have Chiapas local elections on July 19.  And, since PT and PH still exist, they are allowed to compete (and spend for those purposes). As they would be if any of the June elections get to be rerun because of court rulings.

In any case, PH is dead - their offices nearly empty, done, finished. PT is still trying to operate normally.

And, frankly, they have a decent chance to get in. Their main public argument is that somewhere during the official the count the public number of votes for them went down - but we all know the public information system had problems that day. More importantly, they will be trying to kill as many precincts as possible/ as many votes as possible. If the total valid vote were about 100,000 smaller (out of the 39 mln cast - 37 mln. valid) - they would be through. Declaring results invalid in a couple of well-chosen districts would get them accross.

Actually, a good chunk of the job would be done by the Oaxaca 11 - where, arguably, the election was not properly run. Even at the reduced turnout there were about 72.5 thousand valid votes there, and PT got about 2%. So, if that district is elminated (as, there is a good argument, it should be), PT vote share goes from 2.9917% to 2.9934% After that it should be casilla por casilla.

But does this strategy not have other ramifications ?  If Oaxaca 11 is eliminated, what about the PRI winner of that seat ?  If other precincts are eliminated would not that alter results of various FPTP elections.  Also PT will have to pick those precincts where it was way below 3% to kill and might get accused to cherry picking precincts which means that different voters intents are not being treated equally.

[ag]

BTW, we still have Chiapas local elections on July 19.  And, since PT and PH still exist, they are allowed to compete (and spend for those purposes). As they would be if any of the June elections get to be rerun because of court rulings.

In any case, PH is dead - their offices nearly empty, done, finished. PT is still trying to operate normally.

And, frankly, they have a decent chance to get in. Their main public argument is that somewhere during the official the count the public number of votes for them went down - but we all know the public information system had problems that day. More importantly, they will be trying to kill as many precincts as possible/ as many votes as possible. If the total valid vote were about 100,000 smaller (out of the 39 mln cast - 37 mln. valid) - they would be through. Declaring results invalid in a couple of well-chosen districts would get them accross.

Actually, a good chunk of the job would be done by the Oaxaca 11 - where, arguably, the election was not properly run. Even at the reduced turnout there were about 72.5 thousand valid votes there, and PT got about 2%. So, if that district is elminated (as, there is a good argument, it should be), PT vote share goes from 2.9917% to 2.9934% After that it should be casilla por casilla.

But does this strategy not have other ramifications ?  If Oaxaca 11 is eliminated, what about the PRI winner of that seat ?  If other precincts are eliminated would not that alter results of various FPTP elections.  Also PT will have to pick those precincts where it was way below 3% to kill and might get accused to cherry picking precincts which means that different voters intents are not being treated equally.

Yes, of course. It usually happens that the final (TRIFE) result is different in details from the initial (INE) declaration.  As for the precincts PT chooses - other parties can choose their own. It is just that the "expected marginal utility" of removing a precinct of its choice is much higher for PT than for any other party this time. If this were a close presidential election, like in 2006, both leading parties would be at it with gusto. In this case, PRI or PAN or others gain relatively little from screwing PT, while PT has everything on it. Hence, expect PT being much more aggressive than the others.

[jaichind]

Yes, of course. It usually happens that the final (TRIFE) result is different in details from the initial (INE) declaration.  As for the precincts PT chooses - other parties can choose their own. It is just that the "expected marginal utility" of removing a precinct of its choice is much higher for PT than for any other party this time. If this were a close presidential election, like in 2006, both leading parties would be at it with gusto. In this case, PRI or PAN or others gain relatively little from screwing PT, while PT has everything on it. Hence, expect PT being much more aggressive than the others.

Yes, but I would think PRI will be out to stop PT all things equal.  For one thing if PT gets in PRI would lose 5 PR seats not to mention the PRI winner of Oaxaca 11.  But I would agree that PT will fight much harder than PRI.

[ag]

Yes, of course. It usually happens that the final (TRIFE) result is different in details from the initial (INE) declaration.  As for the precincts PT chooses - other parties can choose their own. It is just that the "expected marginal utility" of removing a precinct of its choice is much higher for PT than for any other party this time. If this were a close presidential election, like in 2006, both leading parties would be at it with gusto. In this case, PRI or PAN or others gain relatively little from screwing PT, while PT has everything on it. Hence, expect PT being much more aggressive than the others.

Yes, but I would think PRI will be out to stop PT all things equal.  For one thing if PT gets in PRI would lose 5 PR seats not to mention the PRI winner of Oaxaca 11.  But I would agree that PT will fight much harder than PRI.

Not, really, sure. The main thing is the funding and line. Depends on their judgement, whether having PT strengthens the broad left by providing extra resources, or whether it weakens it by splintering and preserving more players that have to be paid off.

[jaichind]

What is interesting is that turnout for the Lower House elections was nearly 50% which is a good deal higher than other recent midterms (2003 and 2009.)  So all that talk of apathy while true a a certain level did not impact turnout that greatly.  Of course having unscheduled governor elections in Michoacán and Guerrero both of which are above average sized states also helped to push up turnout in those states and ergo turnout overall.

[ag]

One minor but funny detail. AMLO got the PR list of Morena for the DF Assembly (possibly for state legislatures as well - this I do not know) filled out by a lottery from a list of party faithful. These are going to be our MLA's now They have been giving interviews to newspapers. Have a pretty strong feeling this will be as inspiring as the student body of the City University (UACM), which AMLO created when he was mayor. They also admit by lottery, so everybody has the same chance of getting in. Unfortunately, it is hard to figure out what is the chance of getting out, since very few of the students ever graduate.

[jaichind]

I did a little more research into Clouthier , the single independent winner of the lower house elections.  I thought he was just the run-of-the mill PAN rebel but his story is more interesting than that.  As mentioned before he is the son of the PAN candidate in the infamous 1988 presidential election.  Even though he came in third Clouthier the elder insisted that he won the election.  PRI needed legitimacy soit offered the PAN a deal where the PAN would agree to the result and let the paper ballots from the election be burnt and in return PRI will make the election process less fraudulent.   PAN actually won the BC governor race in 1989 as a result.  In the meantime Clouthier the elder got in the way of this deal so he seems to have died in a mysterious car accident in 1989.   Clouthier the younger quit PAN as a result of the deal PAN with PRI.  He then rejoined PAN later and was election as a member of the Lower House.  He then wanted in 2012 to be nominated as a candidate for Senate for PAN and was refused.   As a result Clouthier the younger quit PAN again and seems to have supported AMLO in the 2012 Presidential elections.  Now he is elected as an independent to the lower house again with mostly votes from the PAN vote base.

[ag]

I did a little more research into Clouthier , the single independent winner of the lower house elections.  I thought he was just the run-of-the mill PAN rebel but his story is more interesting than that.  As mentioned before he is the son of the PAN candidate in the infamous 1988 presidential election.  Even though he came in third Clouthier the elder insisted that he won the election.  PRI needed legitimacy soit offered the PAN a deal where the PAN would agree to the result and let the paper ballots from the election be burnt and in return PRI will make the election process less fraudulent.   PAN actually won the BC governor race in 1989 as a result.  In the meantime Clouthier the elder got in the way of this deal so he seems to have died in a mysterious car accident in 1989.   Clouthier the younger quit PAN as a result of the deal PAN with PRI.  He then rejoined PAN later and was election as a member of the Lower House.  He then wanted in 2012 to be nominated as a candidate for Senate for PAN and was refused.   As a result Clouthier the younger quit PAN again and seems to have supported AMLO in the 2012 Presidential elections.  Now he is elected as an independent to the lower house again with mostly votes from the PAN vote base.

Yeah, this is not a run-of-the-mill case, by any means. Clouthier père is, actually, one of the most sainted figures in the party that cares about sainthood (I am almost surprized they have not, yet, found the two miracles necessary to petition Vatican to make this official). There is a monument to him on Ave. Insurgentes (a very non-Mexican, lifelike monument it is), and for every PAN primary election they have a big voting station in a tent right next to it. He was a difficult character, of course. And the son does resemble the father. Never underestimate a Clouthier - especially, as far as willingness to be a contrarian is concerned.

[jaichind]

Looks like PVEM did quite well in terms of public funding it will get as a result of election results.  It will get well over $10 million.  Looks like Morena declined the money.  I guess this is just like JCP in Japan were it refuses public funding.

[ag]

Looks like PVEM did quite well in terms of public funding it will get as a result of election results.  It will get well over $10 million.  Looks like Morena declined the money.  I guess this is just like JCP in Japan were it refuses public funding.

Morena declined the money? You are confusing smthg. A party that declines funding would not be able to operate in Mexico: contribution limits are horridly restrictive. Where do you get that info?

BTW, at today's exchange rate, 160 mln. pesos is almost exactly 10 mln dollars (peso hasn´t been doing good). And much of it will be taken away in fines.

[jaichind]

Morena declined the money? You are confusing smthg. A party that declines funding would not be able to operate in Mexico: contribution limits are horridly restrictive. Where do you get that info?

BTW, at today's exchange rate, 160 mln. pesos is almost exactly 10 mln dollars (peso hasn´t been doing good). And much of it will be taken away in fines.

Yes.  You are right.  I misread the news story.  They did not decline it. 

[jaichind]

Any ETA/status on if PT has been ruled to be over or under 3% ?

[ag]

Any ETA/status on if PT has been ruled to be over or under 3% ?

Far too soon. This will be a long job going through TRIFE. They have till September.

[Famous Mortimer]

So the president's alliance controls EXACTLY half the seats in the lower house?

[ag]

So the president's alliance controls EXACTLY half the seats in the lower house?

Basically, if you count it as PRI/PVEM (unless PT passes, in which case it will be 3 or 4 seats fewer). One vote short of being able to organize the chamber - though they will, probably, still share. There is also Panal - it ran separately, but it is for sale to the highest bidder, and everybody knows who that bidder is.

[ag]

Chiapas state elections today (yep, they vote twice in less than two monts - first the federal midterms, today the municipals and legislative). Polls have just closed and PREP has just reported the first booth (92% PRI-PVEM).

[jaichind]

With about 36% of the voted counted it seems a complete sweep by PVEM-PRI in the State legislature FPFP seats.  The PVEM seems to be the dominate party now in Chiapas with the PVEM backed candidate winning every seat bar one where the PRI is ahead in a seat where PRI and PVEM did not form an alliance.  The non-PVEM-PRI-PANAL-PCU (PCU being some local pro-PVEM Chiapas party it seems) vote seems to be evenly split between PAN PRD MORENA and PMC (a local anti-PVEM Chiapas party) paving the way for this complete sweep.

[jaichind]

For Chiapas municipals elections, the grand PVEM-PVEM-PANAL-PCU seems to have fragmented.  It seems to be PVEM-PANAL vs PRI vs PCU plus all the other parties.  All things equal these three segments is winning most of the muni seats but other parties like PRD PAN and PMC are also managing to win some seats due to the split in the grand PVEM-PVEM-PANAL-PCU alliance.  All things equal PVEM-PANAL is clearly the largest grouping, at least in terms of vote share.

[jaichind]

Complete sweep for PVEM in Chiapas state assembly FPTP districts.  Every PVEM backed candidate won.  Most of them as PVEM-PRI-PANAL-PCU but in cases where PRI ran on its own the PVEM backed candidate still won.  The PVEM backed candidate won 56% of the non-null vote with every other party  splintered, even in cases where PRI broke from the front and run by itself.

[jaichind]

All votes have been officially counted for the Chiapas election.  Interesting facts about this election are

1) As mentioned before, two new regional parties has emerged, PCU and PMC.  Both seems to be creations of the PVEM governor to occupy the opposition space so other national oppsition parties like PAN PRD and MORENA are squeezed out.  

2) For State legislature, it seems to be PVEM-PRI-PANAL-PCU running a a bloc with PRI sometimes running on its own in a few seats.  As noted before PVEM backed candidates won all 24 FPTP seats.  PMC ran separately which did squeeze out the opposition space by getting 8.6% of the vote beating out PAN and PRD.  MORENA barely did better with 9.1% of the vote.  All non PVEM-PRI-PANAL-PCU were hopelessly split  as the PVEM backed candidates which is mostly PVEM-PRI-PANAL-PCU got 54.9% of the vote.  PCU and PMC seems to have done it job to capture pro- and anti- PVEM votes respectively to add to the PVEM alliance and to split the anti-PVEM vote.

3) For municipal elections, the  PVEM-PRI-PANAL-PCU grand alliance seems to split up with the goal of squeezing out PAN PRD and MORENA.   PVEM backed candidates won 37.1% of the vote, PRI backed  candidates won 20.4% of the vote, PCU won 10.3% of the vote, and PMC won 8.6% of the vote with all 4 blocs running separately.   PAN PRD and MORENA was basically squeezed as all of them won around 5.7% of the vote each.  In some larger cities there are pockets of PAN, PRD, or MORENA strength.  There, like TAPACHULA (where MORENA is strong), PVEM-PRI-PANAL got together to defeat it.   Likewise in the capital TUXTLA GUTIÉRREZ where PAN is strong PVEM-PRI-PANAL-PCU got together to gang up on PAN and pull out a narrow victory.   Overall in municipal elections, the new balance of power seems to be PVEM-PANAL, PRI, PCU, PMC and then the various national parties.  So the PVEM governor now control pretty much all but a handful of municipal governments.

4) With these new regional parities which people suspect of just being dummy parties controlled by the PVEM governor plus the fact that PREP stopped early election night has PAN and PRD yelling fraud.  Most likely these complaints will go nowhere.

[Famous Mortimer]

What do PCU and PMC stand for?

[jaichind]

What do PCU and PMC stand for?

PCU - Partido Chiapas Unido
PMC-  Partido Mover a Chiapas

[RodPresident]

Any talks about 2018 candidates? I think that only certain guy is AMLO. Anything about PRI, PVEM, PRD or PAN candidates?

[jaichind]

Any talks about 2018 candidates? I think that only certain guy is AMLO. Anything about PRI, PVEM, PRD or PAN candidates?

MORENA and MC is going to be AMLO.
PRD for now seems to be current DF head Mancera.
PAN the only one that expressed interest is ex-first lady Margarita Zavala wife of PAN President Calderon
PRI I guess the de factor #2 to EPN Minister of Interior Osorio Chong although he has been damaged by the recent daring escape of El Chapo

[jaichind]

Other funny things about the Chiapas election. 

1) As mentioned before, 2 local parties, PCU and PMC, comes out of nowhere which acts to add to the PVEM voting bloc as well as splitting the anti-PVEM vote.

2) The elections were held a month after federal elections even though they could have been held at the same time.  I idea is that holding it separately makes it easier the PVEM governor and PVEM to do what they have to do to win.

3) Turnout for this local elections is even higher than the federal elections back in June.  Also turnout is very high in small remote towns/cities.   There is an inverse relationship between the size of the registration list and the percentage of participation in the elections with some towns having turnout above 80%.



4) In the capital Tuxtla Gutierrez had low turnout and PVEM had to build a large allaince to beat the PAN candidate which they did with a very tiny margin.  The PVEM winner Fernando Castellanos Cal y Mayor seems to have got around campaigning restrictions by having a simulated run for Congress in June 2015 then followed by a real campaign for mayor of  Tuxtla Gutierrez.  So he got much bigger media exposure and for longer than he and his PAN opponent was allowed.    Right now INE is investigating the PVEM winner.  The same Fernando Castellanos Cal y Mayor was in involved in 2009 with arrest of  a PVEM senator of carrying around $1 million in cash in an airport without declaring them.  The senator said that he was just carrying the money for  Fernando Castellanos Cal y Mayor who in turn said that the money was to pay for PVEM worker salaries.