Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

One other interesting part of the election is how PES came out of nowhere to win 3.5% of the non-null vote.  Looking at places it did well HIDALGO(9.8%), BAJA CALIFORNIA(6.7%), DF(6.6%), MORELOS(5.4%), and MEXICO(5.0%) gives us some clues.  In  HIDALGO, several PRI politicians seems to have joined PES and won a significant bloc of the vote.   It seems PES in HIDALGO drew equally from PRI and PAN relative to 2012.  Since PES really started in BAJA CALIFORNIA it is not a surprise it did well there.  It is also clear that in BAJA CALIFORNIA drew its support mostly from PAN although it did not prevent the PAN sweep of BAJA CALIFORNIA.  In DF we find the same thing where PES drew its votes from PAN voters.  Here, PES's presence harmed PAN's chances in 3-4 seats where otherwise PAN could have won.  So PAN win 3 out of 27 seats in DF but could have won something like 6-7 if it was not for PES.   In MEXICO it seems that PES drew from both PAN and PRI but somewhat more from PAN but on the whole PES did not make a big impact on the winners of FPTP seats.  In  MORELOS PES did well for the same reasons all small parties did well.  The Left parties were split as were PRI-PVEM, so that lowered the threshold of winning a seat making it more likely that there will NOT be any tactical voting for the larger parities.  It seems that in MORELOS PES gained votes from PAN but did not seem to have impacted PAN's chances in any of the seats since PAN itself was on a downward trend in MORELOS anyway.  So it seems PES mostly drew its support from PAN although some of it came from PRI and it did manage to damage the chances of PAN in DF.

[ag]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/15/us-mexico-calderon-wife-idUSKBN0OV00H20150615

The wife of former Mexican President Felipe Calderon, Margarita Zavala, said on Sunday she would seek to emulate her husband by running for the presidency in 2018, and left open the prospect of staging an independent bid.

Mexico's Hillary ?

Well, she has been in politics herself. I believe, she is a former Congresswoman, actually.

In other news, lines are drawn on the left. Mexico City mayor Mancera declared he will be running for presidency in 2018 - as independent, if needed. Though, he would not need it: PRD immediately came out with a strong endorsement. Meanwhile, Dante Delgado, the owner of MC, having used Marcelo Ebrard and a bunch of ex-panistas to keep his register, has come out strongly in favor of AMLO for 2018. And, to finish with it, PT headquarters are being secured by INE: PT (and PH - but nobody cares there) has been notified that it can no longer sell its property and/or sign new contracts for anything, but may only pay sallaries to its current employees - so, they aren't endorsing anyone in the future Where does that leave Ebrard? Marcelistas seem very bitter.

[jaichind]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/15/us-mexico-calderon-wife-idUSKBN0OV00H20150615

The wife of former Mexican President Felipe Calderon, Margarita Zavala, said on Sunday she would seek to emulate her husband by running for the presidency in 2018, and left open the prospect of staging an independent bid.

Mexico's Hillary ?

Well, she has been in politics herself. I believe, she is a former Congresswoman, actually.

In other news, lines are drawn on the left. Mexico City mayor Mancera declared he will be running for presidency in 2018 - as independent, if needed. Though, he would not need it: PRD immediately came out with a strong endorsement. Meanwhile, Dante Delgado, the owner of MC, having used Marcelo Ebrard and a bunch of ex-panistas to keep his register, has come out strongly in favor of AMLO for 2018. And, to finish with it, PT headquarters are being secured by INE: PT (and PH - but nobody cares there) has been notified that it can no longer sell its property and/or sign new contracts for anything, but may only pay sallaries to its current employees - so, they aren't endorsing anyone in the future Where does that leave Ebrard? Marcelistas seem very bitter.

Wow. What a betrayal. I was sure that MC was going to run Ebrard or a least wait for bids to come in from AMLO or PRD.  Just looking at the results it seems to me that MC was able to attract some PAN votes this election and I am sure Ebrard was a factor.  But now the election is over MC goes and do a deal with AMLO.  Also, what is it with PAN first ladies running for president.  I remember there was talk of Fox's wife running for president as well years ago in the run up to the 2006 election.  Were there any talk of any of the PRI presidents first ladies running for president.  I do no recall.     

[ag]

The reason MC attracted some PAN vote is not so much Ebrard, as the fact that it ran a whole bunch of disaffected panistas, including a former PAN party president. In fact, the MC candidate for governor of Nuevo Leon, who declined in favor of El Bronco (and is now supposed to be the cabinet chief in the new administration), was a long-time panista as well.

MC, at the federal level, is a private property of one man, unfortunately.  This is why, once Ebrard was taken off the ballot I gave up any thoughts I had of voting MC this time.  With Ebrard in Congress, that would have created some inside weight for him (the assumption was he would become the faction coordinator). Elected office is elected office.  With Ebrard outside of Congress, he has exactly zero influence in the party.

[ag]

There had never been any talk of PRIista first ladies running for office. Remember, there had not been even a female cabinet member until 1980, when Lopez Portillo apointed a mistress to be tourism secretary.

And, in any case, any idea of an ex-president's family member running for office was completely outside the realm of acceptable within the ancien regime. The system was based on the idea of no reelection: the president was an Emperor and the Grand Elector for all offices, but once he "touched" the successor, and the latter was installed in an "election", the old guy was out of the picture: completely. In 1946 Maximino Avila Camacho, who had always been convinced that he, rather than his brother Manuel, should have been "touched" by Lazaro Cardenas (for wasn't it Maximino, who was a true fighting general, unlike his pen-pusher staff general brother?), tried to get in. Well, unfortunately he ate something wrong at lunch and had a fatal heart attack. After this, there was never an issue of inheritance.

As for panista women, it is different. Frist of all, PAN is, really, a religion. And as a religion it is open to the entire families: you get born into the party. Your parents have met at a party meeting, you learn to say "PAN"before you learn to say "mama",  you are active in the party since before you can walk. Your first love is the Party. You run for Party or public office starting in high school. Eventually, you meet a guy and get married - but why should that stop your political career? Even if the guy winds up becoming president, he is but incidental in your love affair with the Party. It is not quite true about Fox (he was an outsider), but it is, most definitely, the Calderon family story (hence, Cocoa's repeated attempt for governoship), and, I am  pretty certain, same is true of Margarita Zavala. They all interrupted their political career, while the brother-husband was in Los Pinos. But they feel no need to stay out now.

[ag]

PT is suing.

[jaichind]

PT is suing.

I was about to ask.  I cannot imagine PT accepting missing 3% by .008% or 3200 votes and getting disbanded.  They are much more justified than AMLO 2006 to ask for "voto por voto"

[ag]

PT is suing.

I was about to ask.  I cannot imagine PT accepting missing 3% by .008% or 3200 votes and getting disbanded.  They are much more justified than AMLO 2006 to ask for "voto por voto"

They are claiming that some of their votes were "lost" at some point, and that really they should have 3.04%, rather than 2.99%.  Anyway, they will be getting their day in court.

[Oak Hills]

Wait, so parties are automatically disbanded if they don't win enough votes?  That makes no sense whatsoever.

[ag]

Wait, so parties are automatically disbanded if they don't win enough votes?  That makes no sense whatsoever.

That is the law

[Viewfromthenorth]

Is there any good reason for this law? Sounds like one of the most undemocratic laws in existence.

[Famous Mortimer]

It's a fairly common law actually, especially in countries where there is some mechanism for public funding.

I don't know about Mexico specifically but usually it doesn't stop the party from continuing to exist, running an office, calling themselves a party, etc. (that would go against freedom of speech/association). It just means the party loses official status, funding, the right to act as a legislative caucus.

[MaxQue]

It's a fairly common law actually, especially in countries where there is some mechanism for public funding.

I don't know about Mexico specifically but usually it doesn't stop the party from continuing to exist, running an office, calling themselves a party, etc. (that would go against freedom of speech/association). It just means the party loses official status, funding, the right to act as a legislative caucus.

In Mexico, they literally forcibly dissolve the party.

[Famous Mortimer]

Well that is pretty messed up then.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Yeah, loss of public funding etc. is not a problem. Actually dissolving the organization is seriously messed up.

[jaichind]

AG is the expert here, but I do think PT is only gone at the federal level.  PT can continue to exist as a state party in states where it does pass some vote share threshold.  I think the members that make up the PT at the federal level can create a new party and petition to be recognized for 2018 just like PH and PES did for 2015.   But I guess they have to go without public funding which will make it hard for them to get past 3% in 2018.

[jaichind]

It seems that PRD claims that in Guerrero, the PRI won the gubernatorial elections with the help of organized crime.  Of course neither PRI nor PRD can claim to be free of all links to  organized crime.  The reality is all the evidence suggests that Mexico's drug gangs have threatened, bribed and murdered right across the political spectrum.
 

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Are there any maps around of the FPTP results by district?

[ag]

BTW, the fact that INE designed PREP to report percentages the way they reported is really stupid. This has fulled not only us here - but the media as well (headlines are out announcing PT demise).  

Sounds like you can give  Lorenzo Cordova  this feedback since it seems you do know him.

I have

He seems to be relaxing now. From this moment on, it is the TRIFE, not INE that has to be making decisions.

[ag]

AG is the expert here, but I do think PT is only gone at the federal level.  PT can continue to exist as a state party in states where it does pass some vote share threshold.  I think the members that make up the PT at the federal level can create a new party and petition to be recognized for 2018 just like PH and PES did for 2015.   But I guess they have to go without public funding which will make it hard for them to get past 3% in 2018.

It may depend on the state law here. But it should be true in, at least, some states. As for the new petition, it is a lengthy process. They would have to first register a "social organization", create local organizations across the country (ok, these, really, exist), and then register within a narrow time period when new parties are allowed to register. Furthermore, not only would they have little public financing (there is some financing given to new parties, but it is a lot less than what they would get as a 3% party) and public air time (same), but private financing is severely capped and new parties cannot run in coalitions the first time they run. They did lose their register in 1991 and reregistered successfully, but the law was a lot easier back then.

[ag]

It's a fairly common law actually, especially in countries where there is some mechanism for public funding.

I don't know about Mexico specifically but usually it doesn't stop the party from continuing to exist, running an office, calling themselves a party, etc. (that would go against freedom of speech/association). It just means the party loses official status, funding, the right to act as a legislative caucus.

In Mexico, they literally forcibly dissolve the party.

The party looses its status and its property (on the assumption that most of it had been acquired with public funds). Can't be comprehensive confiscation, though: PPS has not been around in a long time, but their headquarters in Colonia Roma are alive and well with a large PPS sign (they, mostly, seem to be selling the immortal works of Lombardo Toledano - the party founder - and honey from the courtyard).

[ag]

The really crazy thing is that it is the same threshold for representation and preservation. If 3,131 votes more (out of over 37 mln valid votes cast), it would both get extra 6 or 7 Congress seats and would preserve itself. Now it is threatened with disappearance. This was marginally reasonable when the threshold was 2%, but they raised it to 3% now - for both purposes. Basically, big guys trying to get rid of the small ones.

[jaichind]

Are there any maps around of the FPTP results by district?

I posted this a while ago

I found this image of where the FPTP victories are located by party.  PAN is strong in the NE and Northern cities with some pockets of support in Central Mexico.  Left parties strong in the South and of course especially DF.

[jaichind]

Thinking about what could have been different to save PT from going below the 3% threshold, I go back to my favorite topic of alliance strategy, in this case for PRD-PT.  PRD-PT had an alliance in 100 seats.  I found a few cases where I felt they did not choose optimally to maximize vote share/seats.  Since the gap is only ~3200 votes a different set of alliance choices could have resulted in more PT shares (and more PRD seats while we are at it).  The states where I think PRD-PT did not choose optimally are the following:

1) PRD-PT alliance in BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.  Not clear why they did this.  The combined PRD-PT vote share was too low to even come close to having a chance to win.  PRD and PT were better off running separately and perhaps a few more anti-PRD but pro-PT voters might have voted PT.

2) IN COLIMA there was no PRD-PT alliance but in COLIMA 1st district PRD came close to beating PRI, the eventual winner.  It was clear that PRD was in the running.  If PRD-PT formed an alliance here then PRD would have won the seat and the tactical vote for PRD coming from the PT voter would have accrued under PT.

3) In DURANGO PRD-PT had an alliance in 2 out of the 4 seats.  Just like BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR this made no sense since even the combined PRD-PT vote was very far away from being in the running.

4) In MEXICO, the PRD-PT did not have an alliance.  But PRD was in the running in at least 5 seats (winning 4 of them) and at least somewhat of a contender in another 4-5 more.   Had PRD-PT had an alliance here then just like in COLIMA PT could have picked up the tactical PT voter that voted for PRD.  Of course PRD was not in the running for at least half the seats in MEXICO so an alliance there could have lost PT votes.  Ideally PRD-PT form an alliance in the 10 seats or so that PRD-PT had a chance and have no alliance where they do not.

5) In NUEVO LEON PRD-PT had an alliance.    Just like BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR this made no sense since even the combined PRD-PT vote was very far away from being in the running.

6) In TLAXCALA there was no PRD-PT alliance.  But in 2 out of 3 seats PRD-PT could have either won or have been in contention.  So an alliance here could have attracted more votes for PT in particular.

7) In VERACRUZ there was a PRD-PT alliance in 2 out of 21 seats.  Just like MEXICO, PRD-PT are in contention in about half the seats so an alliance here would have helped PRD win another seat as well as pull in more votes for PT.  Again, ideally having alliances in only the seats that PRD-PT were in contention would have been ideal.

8 ) In ZACATECAS there was a PRD-PT alliance in 2 of 4 seats.  In the other two PRD-PT would have been in the running, sort of. Certainly in ZACATECAS 4th district, a unified PRD-PT could have pull in more Morena tactical voters to back the unified and best placed Leftist PRD-PT candidate.

Some of this require foresight but if PRD-PT had more optimally constructed their alliance strategy, then PT would most likely have cross the 3% threshold in addition to roping a couple of FPTP seats for PRD and PT.

[ag]

BTW, we still have Chiapas local elections on July 19.  And, since PT and PH still exist, they are allowed to compete (and spend for those purposes). As they would be if any of the June elections get to be rerun because of court rulings.

In any case, PH is dead - their offices nearly empty, done, finished. PT is still trying to operate normally.

And, frankly, they have a decent chance to get in. Their main public argument is that somewhere during the official the count the public number of votes for them went down - but we all know the public information system had problems that day. More importantly, they will be trying to kill as many precincts as possible/ as many votes as possible. If the total valid vote were about 100,000 smaller (out of the 39 mln cast - 37 mln. valid) - they would be through. Declaring results invalid in a couple of well-chosen districts would get them accross.

Actually, a good chunk of the job would be done by the Oaxaca 11 - where, arguably, the election was not properly run. Even at the reduced turnout there were about 72.5 thousand valid votes there, and PT got about 2%. So, if that district is elminated (as, there is a good argument, it should be), PT vote share goes from 2.9917% to 2.9934% After that it should be casilla por casilla.