Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

97.97% in.   PT at 2.829%  which after normalizing for nulls/write-ins is 2.974%
My extrapolation now at 2.826% which after normalizing for nulls/write-ins is 2.971%

Looks like PT is out,  PRI-PVEM will then most likely gain seats from 2012.

Being this close, there will be recounts and appeals to tribunals. There are ways of excluding some precincts through courts: PT lawyers will do their best to try to do that.

[ag]

Panista knives out for Madero. And it is well deserved: the idiot has run the party down. Hopefully, this will result in more robust opposiyion for the next 3 years.

[jaichind]

Real count 100.48% (not sure how that is possible but I am sure there is a reason)

Vote share

PAN          21.03
PRI           29.249
PRD          10.75
PVEM          7.014
PT               2.820
MC              6.11
PANAL         3.75
Morena        8.37
PH              2.147
PES            3.30
Ind             0.554
Other          0.131
Null            4.755

PT effective vote is  2.820/(1-.00131-.04755) = 2.964863

PRI+PVEM = 36.263

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.263/(1-.02147-.02820-.00554-.00131-.04755) = 40.475260
                                                      ->  48.475260 of seats since at this stage PT is out.
                               

[jaichind]

Looks like OAXACA 5th is also having problems.  They have very incomplete results.

[ag]

Real count 100.48% (not sure how that is possible but I am sure there is a reason)

Vote share

PAN          21.03
PRI           29.249
PRD          10.75
PVEM          7.014
PT               2.820
MC              6.11
PANAL         3.75
Morena        8.37
PH              2.147
PES            3.30
Ind             0.554
Other          0.131
Null            4.755

PT effective vote is  2.820/(1-.00131-.04755) = 2.964863

PRI+PVEM = 36.263

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.263/(1-.02147-.02820-.00554-.00131-.04755) = 40.475260
                                                      ->  48.475260 of seats since at this stage PT is out.
                               

Apparently, they are claiming a software problem. Probably, somebody does not know how to use Excel again

[ag]

My calculation of the final? result is that PT is getting 2.97644% of the vote

[jaichind]

My calculation of the final? result is that PT is getting 2.97644% of the vote

I get 2.9748%.  Here is my math

PT vote 1085590
PT/PRD vote 49466
PT PR only vote 3062

Total district vote 39221885
Total PR only vote 132564
Total district null 1867933
Total district other 51200
Total PR null 7945
Total PR other 453

(1085590+3062+(49466/2)))/(132564+ 39221885-7945-453-1867933-51200) = 0.029748

[jaichind]

Real count 100.48% (not sure how that is possible but I am sure there is a reason)

Vote share

PAN          21.03
PRI           29.249
PRD          10.75
PVEM          7.014
PT               2.820
MC              6.11
PANAL         3.75
Morena        8.37
PH              2.147
PES            3.30
Ind             0.554
Other          0.131
Null            4.755

PT effective vote is  2.820/(1-.00131-.04755) = 2.964863

PRI+PVEM = 36.263

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.263/(1-.02147-.02820-.00554-.00131-.04755) = 40.475260
                                                      ->  48.475260 of seats since at this stage PT is out.
                               

Apparently, they are claiming a software problem. Probably, somebody does not know how to use Excel again

I think for some states the number of precincts reporting exceeded the total number of precincts they think they have for that state.  I think they just have some data bugs where they might have an obsolete or incorrect number of  precincts that should be in the state.

[ag]

In Colima they first announced today that PAN was winning the governorship in the oficial count by 495 votes, and then, minutes later, corrected it to a PRI/PVEM by 547 votes. In any case, there will be a full recount.

[jaichind]

Real count 99.31%

Vote share

PAN          20.993
PRI           29.165
PRD          10.839
PVEM          6.942
PT               2.834
MC              6.135
PANAL         3.740
Morena        8.398
PH              2.155
PES            3.329
Ind             0.567
Other          0.132
Null            4.770

PT effective vote is  2.834/(1-.00132-.04770) = 2.980

PRI+PVEM = 36.107

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.107/(1-.02155-.02834-.00567-.00132-.04770) = 40.324094
                                                      ->  48.324094 of seats

[ag]

Real count 99.31%

Vote share

PAN          21.993
PRI           29.165
PRD          10.839
PVEM          6.942
PT               2.834
MC              6.135
PANAL         3.740
Morena        8.398
PH              2.155
PES            3.329
Ind             0.567
Other          0.132
Null            4.770

PT effective vote is  2.834/(1-.00132-.04770) = 2.980

PRI+PVEM = 36.107

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.107/(1-.02155-.02834-.00567-.00132-.04770) = 40.324094
                                                      ->  48.324094 of seats

make sure you add the special precinccts with only pr vote. PT is doing worse there.

[jaichind]

Wait, now PT is coming back again with 99.47% counted

Vote share

PAN          21.004
PRI           29.198
PRD          10.857
PVEM          6.919
PT               2.851
MC              6.110
PANAL         3.732
Morena        8.390
PH              2.150
PES            3.326
Ind             0.564
Other          0.131
Null            4.769

PT effective vote is  2.851/(1-.00131-.04769) = 2.997 !!!

PRI+PVEM = 36.117

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.117/(1-.02150-.02851-.00564-.00131-.04769) = 40.338
                                                      ->  48.338 of seats

Looking at where there are votes still outstanding one can extrapolate and say that PT is likely to end up at 2.848% and normalized vote of 2.995% !!! and just miss 3%.

What is going on.  What is the vote jumping around like this.

[jaichind]

Looks like OAXACA 5th and 11th results were able to come in although I thought a lot of ballots were burned in OAXACA 11th.  So will there be a re-vote in OAXACA 11th ?

[ag]

Looks like OAXACA 5th and 11th results were able to come in although I thought a lot of ballots were burned in OAXACA 11th.  So will there be a re-vote in OAXACA 11th ?

we will have weeks before we know. INE has to rule, than there will be appeals to the trbunal, etc.

[jaichind]

This entire PT situation is a lot like the Florida 2000 situation.  Right now I think PT will be around 2500 votes short of 3%.   But that is across the whole country so it is very likely that a recount will produce the results that can generate that sort of difference, in either direction.  

[jaichind]

The thing working against PT right now are the state that has the most precincts outstanding are
GUANAJUATO, MEXICO, TAMAULIPAS, and YUCATAN.  All except for MEXICO, PT is under-performing (like less that 1.5% of the vote.)  That is why my extrapolated results has PT falling short.

[jaichind]

Real count 99.94% counted (only MICHOACAN have some outstanding votes). PT went down as I expected.

Vote share

PAN          21.019
PRI           29.194
PRD          10.864
PVEM          6.916
PT               2.844
MC              6.098
PANAL         3.730
Morena        8.396
PH              2.149
PES            3.325
Ind             0.565
Other          0.131
Null            4.768

PT effective vote is  2.844/(1-.00131-.04768) = 2.990 !!!

PRI+PVEM = 36.110

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.110/(1-.02149-.02844-.00565-.00131-.04768) = 40.328
                                                      ->  48.328 of seats

Once MICHOACAN results comes in PT should be at 2.845% which after normalizing out the nulls/writeins will be 2.991% or about 3500 votes short of 3%.

[jaichind]

Based on own back-of-the-envelope calculations, the seats distribution should be based on current vote count
              
              FPTP   PR     Total
PAN        54     55        109
PRI        160    42        202
PRD         26     28          54
PVEM       28     18          46
PT             6       0            6    -> disbanded
MC          10      16         26
PANAL       1     11          12
MORENA  14     22         36
PES           0       9           9
Ind           1                    1

PRI-PVEM at 248
PAN worst seat result since 1991 even if you count the 1 independent as PAN


On the flip side, if somehow PT makes it it will be

              FPTP   PR     Total
PAN        54     54        108
PRI        160    37        197
PRD         26     28          54
PVEM       28     18          46
PT             6       7          13  
MC          10      16         26
PANAL       1     10          11
MORENA  14     22         36
PES           0       8           8
Ind           1                    1

PRI-PVEM at 243.  Still a gain from 2012.

[jaichind]

The dynamic of PRI-PVEM seeming to gain seats, even if PT were to get over 3%, seems to mostly driven NOT by any increase in relative vote share of PRI-PVEM but more about PVEM winning more FPTP seats.  Since PRI is constrained by the 8% rule, any increase in FPTP seats for PRI is not meaningful unless PRI's vote share goes to.  But if a lot of the PRI-PVEM FPTP victories are accrued under PVEM, as it seems the case this year (PVEM won 14 FPTP seats in 2012 but seems to have won 28 FPTP seats this year) then that means less FPTP victories for PRI and more space for PRI to capture PR seats.

[ag]

This entire PT situation is a lot like the Florida 2000 situation.  Right now I think PT will be around 2500 votes short of 3%.   But that is across the whole country so it is very likely that a recount will produce the results that can generate that sort of difference, in either direction.  

So far it is about 6,500 votes that they are short.

[jaichind]

So far it is about 6,500 votes that they are short.

Really?  By my calc they are about 3200 votes short.  

I have total vote at 39,872,246
           null at           1,900,860
       writein at               52,384
PT at                        1,134,439

PT vote share is  1,134,439/ 39,872,246 = 2.853%
Normalized PT vote share  1,134,439/(39,872,246-1,900,860- 52,384)  =  2.9917%.

 If you add 3200 votes to PT you get 3.0002%

[jaichind]

All count in

Vote share

PAN          21.015
PRI           29.190
PRD          10.874
PVEM          6.917
PT               2.845
MC              6.099
PANAL         3.729
Morena        8.393
PH              2.149
PES            3.324
Ind             0.566
Other          0.131
Null            4.767

PT effective vote is  2.845/(1-.00131-.04767) = 2.992

PRI+PVEM = 36.107

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.107/(1-.02149-.02845-.00566-.00131-.04767) = 40.324
                                                      ->  48.324 of seats

[jaichind]

Looks like

http://www.revistapuntodevista.com.mx/mexico/con-el-2-992-el-pt-a-punto-de-perder-su-registro/70992/

also came up with 2.992% for PT which mates my calcs.  If so then I estimate of about 3200 votes that PT will need to dig up is also correct.

[jaichind]

In Colima they first announced today that PAN was winning the governorship in the oficial count by 495 votes, and then, minutes later, corrected it to a PRI/PVEM by 547 votes. In any case, there will be a full recount.

This seems like another xls error but looks pretty bad. I read that the PAN "winner" even got a  congratulatory phone call from President Nieto then it was announced that PRI had won.

The PAN is also not happy with the results in the municipality of Toluca, Estado de México. There, the party says that its candidate was ahead in the vote counting, but after a “suspicious” delay and a crash in computer systems it was the PRI candidate who was ahead.  According to the PAN's investigation some 23% of the ballots are now missing. The PAN has lodged a formal complaint calling for an annulment and re-run of the voting there.  Memories of 1988.

Other interesting election aftermath news, In DF is PRD is demanding a recount in some areas where it claims the number of spoiled votes was suspiciously large.  It wants the election in the Cuauhtémoc
district to be re-run and says that it will refuse to recognize Morena's Ricardo Monreal as municipal leader there, because of irregularities he is alleged to have committed.

[jaichind]

Reading this

http://www.periodicocentral.mx/2014/politicas/tras-falla-tecnica-ine-da-el-computo-final-29-18-para-el-pri

Tells me that the reason why the percent reported is above 100% is due to a computer bug with double counting etc etc.