Canadian by-elections, 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Forum pegs a 3-way race in Sudbury: Thibeault 33, Shawbonquit 30, Olivier 22. Usual heap of salt with Forum by-electoral polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn, Olivier seems to be pulling more from the NDP than Libs

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair: Thibeault's behaviour is "beneath contempt."

[Holmes]

Thibeault will probably squeak through.

[RogueBeaver]

Thibeault thought about joining Iggy in 2009, but backed off when Iggy's numbers tanked.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP up 36-33 in Sudbury, according to Forum: http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/02/04/liberals-ndp-neck-and-neck-in-sudbury-byelection-poll-finds.html Olivier is down to 14%, so his collapse is helping the NDP, interestingly.

Brilliant news!

[DL]

I'm told that Olivier voters tend to have the NDP as their second choice over Thibeault by about a 5 to 1 margin - so the more his vote is suppressed the better Shawbonquit's chances.

[RogueBeaver]

QC: Richelieu called for March 9.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Shawbonquit will win by about 5 points, but the Liberals will win the federal riding.

[Boston Bread]

Sudbury by-election happens today. Hoping for an NDP win of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Profiling Sudbury: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/02/sudbury-provincial-by-election-today.html

Oh yeah, I'm predicting an NDP win. Take that, Eric Grenier!

[Hatman 🍁]

Some other polls (for those of us who ignore 308):

Oracle poll:
Thibeault: 41%
Shawbonquit: 26%
Olivier: 19%
Peroni: 11%
Robinson: 4%


Mainstreet Technologies:
Thibeault: 32%
Shawbonquit: 28%
Olivier: 14%
Peroni: 9%
Robinson: 4%

Bad, bad news.

[136or142]

I don't have a dog in the hunt in the by election but it astounds me that the Liberals won a majority government after the McGuinty years.

These are, in my opinion, the five worst premiers in Canada for the last 30 or so years:

1.Grant Devine, Saskatchewan
2.Glen Clark, British Columbia
3.Alison Redford, Alberta
4.Don Getty, Alberta
5.Dalton McGuinty, Ontario

6th would be Bill Vander Zalm in B.C.  For all the turbulence his administration, his government actually has some record of accomplishment.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like you're only using corruption to measure that list. I'd be putting Mike Harris at the top of any "worst premier list" (last 25 years).

[136or142]

Looks like you're only using corruption to measure that list. I'd be putting Mike Harris at the top of any "worst premier list" (last 25 years).

Corruption and incompetence.

I agree Harris is a horrible person, but by and large he did seem to achieve what he set out to do, no matter how destructive it was for many of the people of Ontario.

[RogueBeaver]

OPP allege criminality in the Sudbury mess.

[Hatman 🍁]

A Thibeault win now would just be awful.

[Holmes]

A Thibeault win now would just be awful.

Canadian politics in is generally awful so you know what to expect.

[Boston Bread]

Time to place my bets:

Shawbonquit 37%
Thibeault 35%
Olivier 14%
Peroni 8%
Green person 5%
Other 1%

Ultimately just enough Olivier voters cross over to save Shawbonquit from losing.

[RogueBeaver]

Thibeault considered joining Iggy's Grits back in '09 but ultimately declined. Gerry Lougheed Jr., then as now, was one of the suitors.

[RogueBeaver]

10/238: 146 Thibault, 113 Shawbonquit. Really wish we had poll maps like the US, would make guesstimates easier.

[RogueBeaver]

16/238: Shawbonquit 295, Thibeault 263.

[136or142]

http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp

[Hatman 🍁]

So far so good, but really close. Shawbonquit leading by 200 votes  with 49 polls in.

[136or142]

So, is it possible Katheryn Wynn could wind up in jail?  Or just merely have to resign.