Canadian by-elections, 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Sudbury: rejected Grit candidate Andrew Olivier will run as an indie.

[lilTommy]

Sudbury: rejected Grit candidate Andrew Olivier will run as an indie.

Any chance the Liberals had at winning, is long gone now... Oliver will likely pull in 5-10% of the liberal sympathy/protest vote at minimum I think over the mess the OLP made with this Thibeault coronation.
 
The NDP base is highly motivated and rightly pee'd off at Glen personally and at the OLP, so are the local unions. The push is to defeat them both. The last poll had Glen OLP slightly leading over a yet to be nominated NDP candidate, that does not bode well for his chances. The NDP have 4 or 5 candidates vying for the nomination which fly's in the face of what the OLP did.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Olivier might take some of the NDP vote as well. Hopefully not as much.

[lilTommy]

I think Olivier might take some of the NDP vote as well. Hopefully not as much.

True, you might see some less partisan NDP vote shift, that sympathy/protest vote; but given how motivated and driven the NDP will be to defeat Glen, I think many NDP'ers were hoping Oliver would run as an Indie.

[Boston Bread]

Suzanne Shawbonquit may be the new frontrunner for the NDP nomination.
https://twitter.com/SShawbonquit/status/547459875002122246
Paul Loewenburg who ran in 2011 and narrowly failed to be nominated in 2014 not only dropped out of the provincial scene to run federally, but endorsed Shawbonquit.
http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/01/04/loewenberg-backing-shawbonquit-in-ndp-race
Interestingly if Shawbonquit wins the general the ONDP caucus will be 9 men to 12 women.

[MaxQue]

I'm confused. It's about a federal or a provincial by-election?

[Boston Bread]

Sudbury is provincial (MPP Cimino resigned), the federal seat for Sudbury is open too but its election will coincide with the federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

How racist are people in Sudbury? First Nations candidates often face voter discrimination. One of the reasons the NDP was unable to win Kenora in the last couple of federal elections despite winning it provincially.

[Boston Bread]

How racist are people in Sudbury? First Nations candidates often face voter discrimination. One of the reasons the NDP was unable to win Kenora in the last couple of federal elections despite winning it provincially.

Kenora might have also voted based on the gun registry. Anyways the discrimination question isn't a question I can answer but I would hope it isn't an issue.

[adma]

Kenora voted the way it did because a Con fluked into 2nd over NDP in 2006, thus anointing the Cons as the "strategic anti-Liberal" option going into 2008, and then incumbent advantage in 2011...

[Hatman 🍁]

Kenora voted the way it did because a Con fluked into 2nd over NDP in 2006, thus anointing the Cons as the "strategic anti-Liberal" option going into 2008, and then incumbent advantage in 2011...

Meanwhile, the provincial NDP gets majorities/near majorities in the provincial riding? OK. I've been told that Tania Cameron was a "terrible candidate" which I am afraid is probably code. You can't deny that the racism is pretty bad up there. The riding has a large Aboriginal population, and are certainly not the elite of towns like Kenora.

[lilTommy]

Kenora voted the way it did because a Con fluked into 2nd over NDP in 2006, thus anointing the Cons as the "strategic anti-Liberal" option going into 2008, and then incumbent advantage in 2011...

Meanwhile, the provincial NDP gets majorities/near majorities in the provincial riding? OK. I've been told that Tania Cameron was a "terrible candidate" which I am afraid is probably code. You can't deny that the racism is pretty bad up there. The riding has a large Aboriginal population, and are certainly not the elite of towns like Kenora.

Also Remember Kenora Federally is not Kenora-Rainy River Provincially, The NDPs strength was in the old Rainy River riding/area where Howard Hampton owned and Sarah Campbell the current MPP was his Assistant or whatever the term is. In 90 the NDP didn't even win the then Kenora riding! Could Tania Cameron as an aboriginal been a factor?, god I hope not. My thoughts are in 2011 it was the Gun registry, Con incumbent and Liberal/NDP vote splitting that was more a factor, perhaps Cameron was not a strong candidate but on Paper she looked competitive.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Rainy-River area isn't that much more NDP friendly than the rest of the riding: http://election-atlas.ca/ont/107/35.php?e=2014

[lilTommy]

The Rainy-River area isn't that much more NDP friendly than the rest of the riding: http://election-atlas.ca/ont/107/35.php?e=2014

... I was going to add things have changed provincially since then... I should have
Federally it looks like Kenora (city) and Dryden voted heavily CON, while the Northern rural polls (more heavily Aboriginal) voted more towards the NDP in 2011 and Liberal in 2008 http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/308/35035.php?e=2011
While provincially those same areas all trended NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne expected to call Sudbury today.

[RogueBeaver]

Sudbury called for Feb. 5.

[Holmes]

I can see a First Nations candidate in Northern Ontario facing voter discrimination, much more than a candidate in Southern Ontario.

[DC Al Fine]

I can see a First Nations candidate in Northern Ontario facing voter discrimination, much more than a candidate in Southern Ontario.

How far do you (or anyone else on the forum) think this extends? Would the same apply to an Aboriginal Tory or does it just stop white northerners from voting NDP?

[toaster]

I can see a First Nations candidate in Northern Ontario facing voter discrimination, much more than a candidate in Southern Ontario.

I disagree.

[Boston Bread]

Shawbonquit has taken the nomination.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/suzanne-shawbonquit-will-run-for-sudbury-new-democrats-1.2897108

[adma]

I can see a First Nations candidate in Northern Ontario facing voter discrimination, much more than a candidate in Southern Ontario.

I disagree.

Depends on the candidate, of course.  But ideally, in this day and age, there'd be no more voter discrimination than that faced by a lesbian "unelected" (to use conservative troll talk) Premier en route to a majority government.  (And if the Grits blow this byelection, Wynne's sexuality'll have nothing to do with it.)

[Hatman 🍁]

I think racism is more prevalent than sexual orientation discrimination up North these days, but perhaps Holmes could shed some light on the subject. It's true that the Liberals didn't do all that well up north this time.

[Boston Bread]

Note that the olp did better in 2014 than in 2011 popular vote wise in the north, the swing against them in Sudbury was outmatched by positive swings in Thunder Bay. I doubt orientation hurt them. Sudbury is less frontierish than Kenora so I feel racism wouldn't hurt the NDP as much as in Kenora, if racism played a role there.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was curious, so I did the math, and you're right:

Northern Ontario Change (2011-2014)
OLP: +2.93%
PC: -6.66%
NDP: +1.87%

This is higher than the provincial swing to the Liberals of 1.00%, indicating a trend of +1.93%.

[Hatman 🍁]

And of course, here's a map:



Probably a large correlation with social conservatism/economic populism.