Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

State legislatures after 2028:

Dark Blue Means Both Chambers GOP. Dark Red Means Both Chambers Democratic. Green is Split Control. Nebraska is Gray for Obvious Reasons.

Here is the Trifecta Or Not Map. Dark Blue means Complete GOP Control. Medium Blue Means GOP Governor, Split Legislature (1 House Each). Light Blue Means GOP Governor, Democratic Legislature. Pink Means Democratic Governor, GOP Legislature. Medium Red Means Democratic Governor, Split Legislature. Dark Red means Complete Democratic Control.

(Rhode Island has an Indy Governor with Total Democratic Legislature. Nebraska shows as Medium with GOP Governor and nonpartisan Legislature).

Democrats possess The Trifecta in 23 states, a gain of 8 trifectas from after the 2026 elections. They face a split legislature in another 2, a decrease of 4 (a mix of Gubernatorial wins and picking up statehouses), and have a Democratic Governor facing an all-GOP legislature in another six, including in Tennessee, where new Governor Tim McGraw will have a legislature that can override his vetoes with a simple majority, and the primary gain here being grabbing Indiana's statehouse while not winning the legislature.

Republicans possess the Trifecta in 12 states now, a loss of three, concentrated in the South and Great Plains. This means that 35 states total are under single-party control, a gain of six. Republicans lost trifectas in Alaska and Texas after losing those states respective state Houses, while they lost the Indiana trifecta by not holding the Governor's mansion. (For practical purposes Nebraska is a single-party state, though their unique situation warrants their exclusion on this map).

There is just one state now where a Republican Governor faces a unified Democratic legislature, and that is New Jersey. Republican Governors in WA and DE were defeated, and thus those states are now Dem trifectas.

[BuckeyeNut]

Did Ryan go unchallenged in his Ohio Senate run?

[KingSweden]

Did Ryan go unchallenged in his Ohio Senate run?

No, but he won

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

KingSweden is MT trending Dem in this world?

[KingSweden]

KingSweden is MT trending Dem in this world?

Yes. Growth in Missoula/Bozeman and telecommutets

[KingSweden]

Housekeeping - I am debating doing every entry as a high-level breakdown of world and US events in two year increments and then giving the people what they want, which I assume is a cavalcade of fictional people winning Congressional races. My goal is to thus wrap my TL up by taking us through the 2052 election, which is when the "New Majority" of diverse, borderline socialist Democratic dominance ends with a realignment favoring a VERY different GOP

Thoughts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Housekeeping - I am debating doing every entry as a high-level breakdown of world and US events in two year increments and then giving the people what they want, which I assume is a cavalcade of fictional people winning Congressional races. My goal is to thus wrap my TL up by taking us through the 2052 election, which is when the "New Majority" of diverse, borderline socialist Democratic dominance ends with a realignment favoring a VERY different GOP

Thoughts?

I would love that!

[Mike Thick]

Housekeeping - I am debating doing every entry as a high-level breakdown of world and US events in two year increments and then giving the people what they want, which I assume is a cavalcade of fictional people winning Congressional races. My goal is to thus wrap my TL up by taking us through the 2052 election, which is when the "New Majority" of diverse, borderline socialist Democratic dominance ends with a realignment favoring a VERY different GOP

Thoughts?

I would love that!

Yeah, this would be great.

[KingSweden]

So first item - one of the reforms the new Dem Congress will pursue is Wyoming Rule apportionment for 2032 and beyond, because of "fairness/justice" or what have you (I predict this will be a thing as population centers demand more clout). Is anyone interested in drawing those maps? I no longer have DRA on my new laptop. I'll be doing the 2030 census math here soon.

[KingSweden]

Jump Ahead - the 2030 Census

I will just be doing the raw number of each state as of 2030. These numbers will obviously be pure, utter projection/speculation, totally unscientific nonsense solely for the purpose of this TL. As a rule of thumb, the West and Southeast will continue seeing strong growth while the NE, Midwest and Plains (as well as some parts of the Appalachian/Deep South) decline.

[KingSweden]

2030 Census Project:

First thing first. Wyoming still smallest state at 620,819 as of April 2030, just slightly behind Vermont.

That means each state, starting with the 123rd Congress (2033-2035), will be allocated CDs based on their total population divided by the population of Wyoming, rounded to the nearest whole.

Again, these numbers were produced by linear growth to 2020, then I multiplied based on my projections for how a state did during the 2020s. This is super duper unscientific, and these numbers are mostly from my Ass. I will give a brief blurb throughout.

[KingSweden]

Alabama 2030 Pop: 5,012,461. CDs: 8 (+2). While Huntsville and the coast continue to grow, rural Alabama, particularly the Black Belt, empty at an even faster pace in the 2020s.

Alaska 2030 Pop: 818,177. CDs: 1 (-) The pace of growth accelerates somewhat despite the unstable oil market of the 2020s as outdoorsy telecommuters flock to the Wasatch Valley/Anchorage and as receding ice caps makes the "Northwest Passage" around Asia an attractive shipping route near the end of the decade, spurring growth near Nome.

Arizona 2030 Pop: 7,618,509 CDs: 12 (+3). Growth slows from the 2010s, when AZ narrowly missed out on another CD. Water trouble by the mid-late 20s slows the previous breakneck pace, but still a strong clip as Gen X starts to reach retirement age for the first time.

Arkansas 2030 Pop: 3,131,117 CDs: 5 (+1). The trend of decades continues - growth in the west and north, decline in the south and Delta, accelerates as the rural flight of the 2020s hits the Natural State in tandem with WalMart struggling in a volatile retail environment. Still, the state adds nearly 100k people during a very rough decade for AR

California 2030 Pop: 43,664,833 CDs: 70 (+16). The big winner in the new apportionment. CA's coastal counties continue to boom and start growing upwards after CEQA reforms and more urbanist victories over aging NIMBYs. The Central Valley grinds to a halt in growth, as does much of the interior besides Sacramento and some of the cities on the soon-to-be-finished CalHSR.

[KingSweden]

Colorado 2030: 6,557,807. CDs: 11 (+3). The fastest growing state in the 2020s after Utah, the Denver area continues to boom up and out, while the telecommute revolution has seen thousands move to smaller mountain towns for outdoorsy elements. Colorado Springs has even started to show tinges of liberalism as the state stampedes left

Connecticut 2030: 3,586,170. CDs: 6 (+1). Better growth and economy than the 2010s, though still a fairly stagnant state. Is becoming increasingly nonwhite due to growth in major cities and as rural New England keeps emptying

Delaware 2030: 1,084,989. CDs: 2 (+1). The unthinkable happens and DE clears the 1 million mark and adds a second district, both for the first time,  as it grows a tick faster than during the 2010s.

D.C. 2030: 793,807. CDs: N/A. The breakneck growth of the 2010s slows, but during the Twenties the District still adds close to eighty thousand new arrivals as it grows upwards more than ever

Florida 2030: 24,327,628. CDs: 39 (+11). Though growth slows slightly during the 2020s, Florida is still a booming state as Latin Americans flock to the state in droves and the retiree shift continues unabated. Orlando/Tampa/I4 in particular sees the bulk of the boom.

Georgia 2030: 11,809,106. CDs: 19 (+5). Georgia actually grows faster than FL this time around, with growth concentrated in Atlanta as the black belt and downstate hollow out. Indeed, many rural counties are now majority Hispanic where once they were black or white, throwing VRA considerations into flux.

[KingSweden]

Hawaii 2030: 1,601,198. CDs: 3 (+1). Hawaii grows faster in the 20s than before as retirees and young white line flock there, setting up a potential future clash with the Asian machine...

Idaho 2030: 1,939,630. CDs: 3 (+1). Tale of two states - Boise grows massively, the Mormon corridor and CDA see slow paced increases and the rural outstate continues to collapse, concentratimg even more power in Idaho with the Boise metro

Illinois 2030: 12,697,114. CDs: 20 (+3). Illinois continues to decline in Pop. The collars grow slightly and Cook is mostly stagnant with growth in the Northside and the continued emptying of the Southside. Every other county loses population, many by more than 10%

Indiana 2030: 6,928,334. CDs: 11 (+2). Indiana's growth slows dramatically as its rural counties lose Pop, though so does Lake County. Indy, South Bend, and Evansville see a steady clip and the Louisville suburbs do okay.

Iowa 2030: 3,323,914. CDs: 5 (+1). Iowa actually does okay, with a ton of growth concentrated in Des Moines. Rural white hollowing is somewhat offset by Iowa's peculiar influx of immigrants, unusually high in a plains state. 30 of Iowa's 99 counties are majority nonwhite by the end of the decade

Kansas 2030: 2,990,234. CDs: 5 (+1). Opposite story in Kansas, where growth grinds to a halt. 70 of Kansas' 102 counties see population decline, with many seeing close to 20% dropped. The nonwhite rural population spikes, particularly in rural counties near larger cities. KC area and Wichita do okay, but the state is ailing

Kentucky 2030: 4,623,708. CDs: 7 (+1). The Bleugrass state slows too, with Eastern KY losing between 20-30% in many counties as coal continues to die and the locals leave or die off too. The Louisville-Lexington corridor offsets with strong suburban and urban growth, and Toyota continues to invest massively in the area. By the end of the decade, Greater Louisville has become one of America's hottest growing metros

[jojoju1998]

So does the New Majority include the White Working Class Americans too ? Is the New Majority Populist ?

[KingSweden]

So does the New Majority include the White Working Class Americans too ? Is the New Majority Populist ?

Probably a little, though I imagine that's still an R-trending demo

[badgate]

United States elections, 2016

Texas

Presidential: Cruz sees a substantial home-state advantage, winning 60-38 and cleaning up in the Dallas and Houston suburbs, which sees record Republican turnout.

TX House: The entire delegation is returned - Pete Gallego narrowly loses his rematch with Rep. Will Hurd.

TX Legislature: Republicans pick up one seat in the Senate, expanding their majority to 21-10, while the House remains 98-52 with no change.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 162

The part I bolded was prescient!

[Heisenberg]

So first item - one of the reforms the new Dem Congress will pursue is Wyoming Rule apportionment for 2032 and beyond, because of "fairness/justice" or what have you (I predict this will be a thing as population centers demand more clout). Is anyone interested in drawing those maps? I no longer have DRA on my new laptop. I'll be doing the 2030 census math here soon.

I can do some of the smaller states for you after Monday (I'll have a busy weekend).
Let me know which states, how many districts, and what rules I have to follow. I love DRA!

(In exchange, could I please borrow your NJ and TX maps from Era of the New Majority? I'm working on a project for 2022 fantasy redistricting for my timeline, which I have long-term plans for, and both maps would not only work but save me lots of time as well, some of the bigger states are slow on my computer, which is why I'm mostly limited to smaller states.)

[KingSweden]

So first item - one of the reforms the new Dem Congress will pursue is Wyoming Rule apportionment for 2032 and beyond, because of "fairness/justice" or what have you (I predict this will be a thing as population centers demand more clout). Is anyone interested in drawing those maps? I no longer have DRA on my new laptop. I'll be doing the 2030 census math here soon.

I can do some of the smaller states for you after Monday (I'll have a busy weekend).
Let me know which states, how many districts, and what rules I have to follow. I love DRA!

(In exchange, could I please borrow your NJ and TX maps from Era of the New Majority? I'm working on a project for 2022 fantasy redistricting for my timeline, which I have long-term plans for, and both maps would not only work but save me lots of time as well, some of the bigger states are slow on my computer, which is why I'm mostly limited to smaller states.)

Of course!

I'm going to try to finish my 2030 census project on Monday. Won't have access to my notes his weekend.

United States elections, 2016

Texas

Presidential: Cruz sees a substantial home-state advantage, winning 60-38 and cleaning up in the Dallas and Houston suburbs, which sees record Republican turnout.

TX House: The entire delegation is returned - Pete Gallego narrowly loses his rematch with Rep. Will Hurd.

TX Legislature: Republicans pick up one seat in the Senate, expanding their majority to 21-10, while the House remains 98-52 with no change.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 162

The part I bolded was prescient!

Well, at least I got one thing right...

I'll have you all know I called Sam Johnson retiring in 2018, too. I must have a weird Texas thing...

[KingSweden]

Louisiana 2030: 5,000,429. CDs: 8 (+2). Louisiana gets nice growth in the Nola, Baton Rouge and Shreveport areas despite sharp declines in the rural north and Acadiana. The movement of Hispanics to New Olreans continues to change its long Creole and southern black culture

Maine 2030: 1,301,618. CDs: 2 (-). Despite growth in Portland, he continued collapse of Northern Maine causes the state to be one of the few to actually lose population. Center of gravity shifts further south as Portland area densities and expands outwards

Maryland 2030: 6,548,386. CDs: 11 (+3). The booming D.C. Suburbs are joined by a gentrifying Baltimore, which sees growth of nearly 3% as it becomes a low cost alternative and investments by major companies in the area power a renaissance. Western MD sees a sharp pop drop off, eastern shore grows slightly around Salisbury as more Beach homes are built

Massachusetts 2030: 7,406,618. CDs: 12 (+3). Boston's boom powers the Ocean State, and investments in small towns in the western part of the state help make it New England's only real success story

Michigan 2030: 10,062,306. CDs: 16(+3). Detroit's gradual recovery (and gentrification) is paired by growth in Michigan's midsize cities to see a little bit of growth. Flint continues to decay, though, and rural Michigan keep hollowing out at an even rapider pace

Minnesota 2030: 6,025,993. CDs: 10 (+3). The Twin Cities continue to excel, same as Rochester. The Iron Range continues to shed people, though Duluth grows at a fair pace.

Mississippi 2030: 3,020,946. CDs: 5 (+1). One of the slowest growing states. Mississippi's black share of vote continues to trend up, though the Delta is still seeing declines and much of the rural parts of the state are in acute decline. The Jackson and Memphis suburbs account for most of the increases

Missouri 2030: 6,920,278. CDs: 11 (+3). Modest growth in St Louis and KC paired with a mini boom in Springfield and Columbia offsets the emptying of much of the state in between. Northern Missouri is the site of the strongest negative population shifts, while the southern half sees more modest declines

Montana 2030: 1,187,581: CDs: 2 (+1). Bozeman, Missoula and Billings power Montana's increase despite quite extensive shrinkage in rural Eastern Montana. The state is ground zero of the telecommute revolution

[KingSweden]

Nebraska 2030: 2,173,350. CDs: 3 (-). Nebraska barely misses adding a fourth seat. The white-hot Lincoln and Omaha areas, driven by low COL, tech and health science growth, and solid education, pave the state's growth as 75 of the state's 93 counties lose population, nearly half of those by more than 10%. Several now have narrow Hispanic pluralities.

NV 2030: 3,472,463. CDs: 6 (+2). Reno's rapid growth and Las Vegas continuing to be a hot place for transplants makes NV once again one of America's fastest growing. It does not grow as fast as last decade, though

NH 2030: 1,377,557. CDs: 2 (-). NH sees anemic growth for a second decade in a row, with many rural towns decaying in tandem with Manchester/Portsmouth doing well.

NJ 2030: 9,318,258. CDs: 15 (+3). Despite a second straight decade of modest growth, Jersey sees a continuation of the northward shift of its population as South Jersey declines and the JC/Newark region grows massively in urban centers and steadily in suburban areas.

NM 2030: 2,143,194. CDs: 3 (-). New Mexico grows a tad faster in the 20s but stays at same CD level. Most growth is in ABQ or Las Cruces, and some rural towns lose upwards 20% of their population, one of the most polarized results in the nation.

NY 2030: 20,636,122. CDs: 33 (+7). Upstate continues to decline, its cities are stagnant, but the NYC area enjoys healthy growth as all boroughs show growth of more than 5% and the Bronx starts to heavily gentrify. Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk all see good growth, too

North Carolina 2030: 11,727,356. CDs 19 (+5). One of the fastest growing states in the Union, powered by Charlotte, the Triangle, and the Triad. One of the most rapidly urbanizing states in America, NC's rural areas do not struggle in the way other places in the South do, though still fail to keep up with the syaye's major cities

North Dakota 2030: 798,941. CDs: 1 (-). No change here as the slow recovery of the oil fields and depoliatkpm of the central part of the state leads to anemic growth. Fargo and Grand Forks do well.

[KingSweden]

Ohio 2030: 11,757,899. CDs: 19 (+4). Ohio sees slight growth, with the center of gravity shifting south toward Columbus area in particular and somewhat Cincinnati as those cities grow at the expense of still-decaying Cleveland, Toledo and the Mahoning Valley. Ohio has now fallen behind Georgia and is barely ahead of North Carolina.

Oklahoma 2030: 4,218,919. CDs: 7 (+2). While rural areas depopulate and oil continues to fluctuate below boom numbers, OKC and Tulsa see enough growth, particularly in suburban areas, to keep the state in the positive, with those two metros accounting for 90% of the state's growth

Oregon 2030: 4,660,608. CDs: 7 (+1). Portland area keeps growing, Bend continues to see white hot growth, and the Columbia Valley gets more Hispanic. Southern Oregon starts to empty more rapidly, and despite having a university Eugene starts to stagnate

Pennsylvania 2030: 13,111,648. CDs: 21 (+4). The Keystome State gets its biggest growth in SEPA and the Lehigh Valley, while the ongoing Marcellus Boom helps some parts of the Pittsburgh area - now one of the most Republican parts of the state outside of main city - recover a little. NEPA starts to dramatically decline, as does much of the lower T. Philadelphia emerges as a thriving energy hub by end of decade

Puerto Rico 2030: 2,983,612. CDs: 5 (+5*). After a successful statehood vote, he still-declining island hopes to arrest its dramatic long term population collapse

Rhode Island 2030: 1,070,638. CDs: 2 (+1). Despite minimal growth, Rhode Island regains a lost seat.

South Carolina 2030: 5,698,536. CDs: 9 (+2). Booms in Charleston, Columbia and the Upstate (and a flock of retirees to Myrtle Beach) gives the Palmetto state one of the hottest sustained economies in America. Increasingly attracting immigrants from around the country and world. Much of the state's black belt rural counties continue to sharply decline, faster than white areas, as African-Americans move to cities both within and beyond the state.

[KingSweden]

South Dakota: 949,838. CDs (+1). For the first time in decades, South Dakota will barely make the cut to have a second district. Population shifts have been towards Pop centers throughout state

TN: 7,306,226. CDs: 12 (+3). Strong growth in Nashville, Knoxville and Chattanooga offsets sharp rural declines along with steady, decent growth in Memphis. Nashville closes the decade as the fastest growing metro area in the United States

TX: 33,782,354. CDs: 54 (+15). The second biggest gain in seats. Texas once again sees double digit growth, almost entirely in its main metros. Rural flight plagues just as many of its rural counties as elsewhere in America. The state has now become majority Hispanic, though not in voting Pop.

UT: 3,793,183. CDs: 6 (+2). The fastest growing state in the country as cheap COL, low taxes, good schools/cities and beautiful landscapes attracts hundreds of thousands of new residents and as Mormoms keep having tons of kids

Vermont: 628,418. CDs: 1 (-). No big changes here.

Virginia: 9,185,362. CDs: 15 (+3). Booms in NoVA, greater Richmond and slight growth in the Tidewater offsets dramatic declines in SW VA and the Shenandoah (tho Roanoke and Lynchburg both grow quite a bit).

WA: 8,544,116. CDs: 14 (+4). Washington is again one of the fastest growing states in the country, with much of that growth in the Seattle metro, specifically King County. Nevertheless, Spokane adds over 100k people in its county during the 2020s and the Teri-Cities continue to get an influx of government workers, retirees and Hispanics. The coastal counties continue to shrink drastically (Grays Harbor, etc)

WV: 1,756,371. CDs: 3 (+1). Regains a lost district from last decade despite shedding nearly 60k inhabitants. The collapse of the coal counties is somewhat offset by people moving to areas with more shale production and increasing suburbanization in the Eastern Panhandle.

Wi: 5,959,702. CDs: 10 (+2). Slow growth like much of Midwest. Milwaukee and it's suburbs grow steady, Madison area booms, Green Bay and Eau Claire pace state's growth rate and much of the rural central and NW of the state decline dramatically

WY: 620,820. CDs 1 (-). Growth here tapers a bit thanks to decline of coal industry, and growth shifts toward northern anchor of Front Range

[Mike Thick]

Pretty sure I got this right, but y'all are welcome to spot-check my work.

[This account no longer in use.]

I might be able to do some DRA work; we'll see though.