Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

November 2014: Democrats suffer debilitating losses nationwide, dropping to only 18 Governorships, losing 9 Senate seats and with the GOP attaining its largest House majority since the 1920s. The GOP maintains its grip on numerous state legislatures, including flipping both houses in West Virginia and Nevada. President Barack Obama's unpopularity amidst international crises is cited as a major factor in the loss, in addition to gaffe-prone Democratic candidates and lackluster turnout.

December 2014: President Barack Obama signs an executive order commanding DHS to prioritize deportations to illegal immigrants with a criminal history and partially extends DACA to parents of already-eligible children. House Republicans threaten a government shutdown, but none occurs before the beginning of the year. Dozens of Obama appointees are waived through by a voice vote in return for waiting to vote on AG nominee Loretta Lynch in 2015. The ISIS siege of Kobani is broken after Turkey acquiesces to NATO demands to stage airstrikes from Incirlik. After snap elections, Shinzo Abe's LDP is returned with a reduced majority in the Japanese Diet.

January 2015: Newly inaugurated Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson rejects the Medicaid expansion in Arkansas. After a contentious questioning period highlighted by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)'s televised questions and later filibuster on the nomination over her responses to the Obama executive order, Lynch is narrowly confirmed by a vote of 52-48, with all Democrats and six Republicans voting in favor after the Senate agrees to end Cruz's filibuster 89-10. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announces her intention to run for President in 2016, as was widely expected. An airstrike in Syria kills the Caliph Ibrahim.

February 2015: Obama strikes a combative tone in his State of the Union address. The GOP rebuttal is given by Cory Gardner, while Cruz gives his own rebuttal afterwards. After a much-ballyhooed challenge from the left by Robert Fioretti, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is reelected with 53% of the vote over several weak challengers. Early elections in Croatia are won by the nationalist HDZ and a right-wing coalition; Tomislav Karamarko becomes the new Prime Minister of Croatia.

March 2015: The Iraqi Army scores a major victory over ISIS and retakes Mosul after weeks of heavy fighting. Ted Cruz announces a Presidential run, and a few days later so does Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee rules out a run once again and signals that he will endorse whoever the strongest social conservative in the race is.

April 2015: Senator Bernie Sanders announces a run for President as a Democrat. Clinton responds by touting the endorsements of Senator Elizabeth Warren and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, both prominent progressives. Florida Governor Jeb Bush announces that he will run for President in 2016 at a news conference with both his father and brother. A few days later, US Senator Marco Rubio announces that he will not run for President, but declines to endorse Bush.

May 2015: President Obama is granted fast-track authority on the Trans-Pacific Partnership by the US Senate and signs corporate tax reform lowering the top overall bracket to 26.5% into law, cited as a rare bipartisan achievement. In the Kentucky primary, Matt Bevin wins a stunning upset over frontrunner James Comer to become the GOP's nominee for Governor. In the UK, Labour wins the most seats, but not enough for a majority and is forced to form a coalition government with the SNP and Sinn Fein. Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister of the UK. UKIP wins twenty-five seats, almost all of them in traditionally Conservative constituencies, and the Liberal Democrats lose over half of the their caucus.

[Mehmentum]

Interesting.  Looking forward to more!

[KingSweden]

June 2015: In a surprise, the US Supreme Court upholds federal ACA subsidies in a 6-3 vote, causing conservatives to once again question Chief Justice Roberts' conservative credentials. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announces his candidacy for President, as do Rick Santorum and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Ohio Governor John Kasich announces he will not be a candidate. Ukrainian forces manage to finally seize Donetsk a few weeks after the ceasefire permanently crumbles. Polish and NATO forces are put on high alert and President Obama speaks on national television to announce that the United States will sanction Russia again if there are any further breaches of the ceasefire. Former US Vice President Dick Cheney dies at the age of 74.

June 2015 (continued): Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy calls snap elections several months early after his party improves its polling position. However, the PP quickly deteriorates in the ensuing campaign and there is a hung Parliament, with the PP holding a plurality of seats and the PSE suffering a historic loss, being overtaken by left-populist Podemos and IU, who refuse to give the PP a confidence vote. PP is forced into a grand coalition with the PSE and Basque Nationalist Party, which was another big winner over rival Amaiur in its own region. The unrest sparks worries in the recession-beleaguered Eurozone.

[KingSweden]

Interesting.  Looking forward to more!

Thanks! By the way, how does one post maps?

[badgate]

Interesting.  Looking forward to more!

Thanks! By the way, how does one post maps?

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

also: Advanced mapmaking for your timeline tutorial

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This is really, really good. Keep up the awesome work!

[New_Conservative]

This is really, really good. Keep up the awesome work!

[KingSweden]

A note from earlier in the thread: in April 2015, Finland's Centre Party regains most seats lost in the earlier election at the expense of the National Coalition and forms a coalition with the Social Democratic Party to prevent a Finns-National Coalition government. Juha Sipila becomes Prime Minister and SD leader Antti Rinne is made Foreign Minister and Deputy PM.

[KingSweden]

July 2015: Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry both enter the Presidential race. As the 2016 Congressional elections approach, several very old Republican Senators are committed to reelection races - Chuck Grassley, Dick Shelby and John McCain. Both Shelby and McCain pick up primary challenges, with Mo Brooks jumping in to take on the former and David Schweikert challenging the latter. Barbara Boxer and Barbara Mikulski both announce their retirements this month - in California, the GOP clears the field for David Valadao, while the Democrats clear the field for Kamala Harris and Eric Garcetti, setting up a San Fran-LA showdown. In Maryland, John Sarbanes enters the race for the Democrats while David Brinkley, the State Senate Minority Leader, enters for the GOP where he would face Dan Bongino. President Obama vetoes a very conservative energy plan, the American Energy Production and Independence Act (AEPIA) passed by Congress.

July 2015 (continued): The PRI suffers heavy losses in Mexico's Congressional elections, with the PRD attaining 121 seats, the PAN earning 142 seats, and the PRI majority falling to 165 seats. President Enrique Pena Nieto refers to it as a "humbling rebuke," yet the PRI-PAN coalition continues. Bad international news arrives from Europe as Ukraine's government collapses and President Petro Poroshenko is forced to call snap elections to be held in early August around the one-year anniversary of the collapse of the first Ukrainian offensive in the Donbas. In France, an ISIS jihadist returning from Syria detonates a car bomb on the Champs Elysees, killing himself and twenty-one others. Security is heightened worldwide. A standoff over Jewish settlements in Jerusalem boils over into massive riots by Palestinians at the end of July, continuing into the next month. President Obama and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu exchange the harshest words yet over the harsh Israeli crackdown against the riots.

[KingSweden]

August 2015: One of the hottest summers on record exacerbates drought conditions in California, Texas and Oklahoma, driving up food prices nationwide. The low price of oil combined with record heat slows the energy boom in Texas somewhat, though the North Dakota shale extraction continues unabated. Education Secretary Arne Duncan announces his resignation, sparking a debate in the Senate, with conservatives such as Ted Cruz promising to hold up any nominee who supports the further implementation of Common Core. Several GOP and IDC members of the NY State Senate are indicted by US Attorney Preet Bharara on corruption and bribery charges. West Virginia passes a right-to-work law that is vetoed by Governor Earl Ray Tomblin. Former Senator Daniel Akaka passes away at the age of 90 and former Vice President Walter Mondale dies at 87.

August 2015 (continued): ISIS manages to briefly capture Aleppo. The Free Syrian Army has nearly completely collapsed by this point. Stephen Harper drops the writ to initiate the 2015 Canadian federal election for September 14, 2015. Westminster suffers its first coalition-related issues as SNP MPs, led by Alex Salmond, threaten to bring down the government over a Labour education reform bill. The Russian economy, after a revision by the World Bank, is shown to have been not only in a recession but a much deeper recession than imagined after sanctions, weak oil prices and a weak ruble. Ukraine's political crisis intensifies as former soldiers form their own party, The Protectors, protesting what they see as a lenient policy towards the East by Poroshenko. Rajoy's new government narrowly survives a confidence vote on its post-election budget.

[The Lord Marbury]

In the UK, Labour wins the most seats, but not enough for a majority and is forced to form a coalition government with the SNP and Sinn Fein.

What happens to cause Sinn Fein to actually take their oaths and their seats in parliament since they haven't done so ever before? I have a similar question pertaining to the SNP since the party has a policy of never voting on English matters in the UK parliament, and why do they change this?

[KingSweden]

In the UK, Labour wins the most seats, but not enough for a majority and is forced to form a coalition government with the SNP and Sinn Fein.

What happens to cause Sinn Fein to actually take their oaths and their seats in parliament since they haven't done so ever before? I have a similar question pertaining to the SNP since the party has a policy of never voting on English matters in the UK parliament, and why do they change this?

I'm not sure about SF, I didn't know that was their policy. I needed the weak Labour minority government to have some sort of informal support. It may be that SNP doesn't necessarily vote on English matters, they just vote to install Miliband as PM with Labour continuing as a minority government.

[KingSweden]

September 2015: A late change in the 2016 Presidential race: Rob Portman announces he is jumping in at the last minute as an "agent of reform" as Christie and Bush's campaigns both sputter and Cruz wins the Ames Straw Poll. At a debate hosted in Nassau, NH by Fox News, Portman cites his budget knowledge and bipartisan credentials as the reason to vote for him and is endorsed by John Kasich. He is seen as a further candidate on the establishment side of the field. President Obama signs the bipartisan Care for Wounded Heroes Act (CWHA), a broad reform of the VA. The nominee to take over the DOE, Tom Torlakson, is held up by Common Core opponents for three weeks in the Senate without a vote.

September 2015 (continued): The Social Democrat government of Pedro Passos Coelho is defeated in the Portuguese elections by the Socialist Party, which wins a minority backed by the Left Bloc as the People's Party gains a staggering forty seats at the expense of SD. New PM Antonio Costa promises to restore parts of the budget imposed by austerity as Portugal's economy improves slightly. Iranian-backed Shia militias seize ISIS territory outside of Baghdad and immediately get into sectarian shooting matches with local Sunnis, though not to the extent of the 06-07 civil war.

[KingSweden]

Canadian Federal Election, September 14, 2015

In the 42nd Canadian federal election, the incumbent Conservative Party loses 47 seats and the NDP loses 29 as Justin Trudeau paces his Liberal Party to a minority government. The Bloc Quebecois wins one seat in Quebec, giving it its lowest seat total since 1993, and loses Official Party status. The new FD, singular to Quebec, also fails to return any members to Parliament, while the Green Party wins 5 seats, all in British Columbia, an all-time high.

Trudeau enters Parliament with a minority government of 149 seats.

Liberals: 149
Conservative: 116
NDP: 67
Greens: 5
Bloc Quebecois: 1

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Will Harper retire as leader of the Conservatives or will he give it another go in a few years? And is Cameron leaving the leadership as well?

[Bojack Horseman]

Will Harper retire as leader of the Conservatives or will he give it another go in a few years? And is Cameron leaving the leadership as well?

God I hope not. To quote my Canadian friend, "Stephen Harper is an egomaniacal asshole who's a puppet for corporate oil."

[KingSweden]

Analysis for Canadian federal election of 2014:

Liberal wins are concentrated in urban and suburban areas, with Liberals primarily targeting NDP seats in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec, and Conservative seats in BC, Ontario and Manitoba. The strategy is successful, with the NDP being wiped out in Atlantic Canada, the Tories falling to 38 seats in Ontario and the Tories being left with one MP in Quebec. The NDP, which suffers a nearly 30 seat Liberal wipeout in Quebec, manages to pick off the former Independent bloquistes and FD members to pad their net loss. In Manitoba, Liberals pick off three Conservative seats in the Winnipeg area while the NDP gains another seat in the province.

The much-vaunted Liberal foray into Alberta only nets one seat in total, whereas Grit investments in Nova Scotia knock out all three Halifax-area Dippers/takes out a rural Tory, sweeps PEI and Newfoundland and picks up three seats in NB. The NDP and Liberals both bite into Tory numbers in Ontario, helping lead to an unexpectedly large loss for the government Tories.

The Greens earn their highest-ever total with five seats, four of which are located on Vancouver Island.

In his victory address, Justin Trudeau strikes a progressive tone, discussing themes of social justice, economic populism and environmentalism, while behind the scenes a very Third Way, Blairite leadership team is assembled. Tom Mulcair announces he will step down as NDP leader pending the election of a replacement, and Stephen Harper signals he will do the same, eventually announcing his retirement and immediate resignation on September 27th, with Peter MacKay taking over as interim Conservative leader. The 115 seat gain by the Liberals marked the biggest single-seat win in Canada since 1984, and the largest gain not to produce a majority government.

[KingSweden]

October 2015: Secretary of Education Tom Torlakson is finally confirmed by the Senate 55-42, with 3 abstentions. US Rep. Michael Grimm is convicted on seven charges and per New York state law is forced to resign, triggering a special election pegged by NY governor Andrew Cuomo to coincide with the 2016 elections. In the meantime, seat is left empty. At a rally in Manchester, NH, Jeb Bush is heckled and booed off the stage by conservative activists opposed to his stances on Common Core and immigration. Polls show Hillary Clinton leading all Republican opponents. US Rep. Chaka Fattah is indicted on corruption and campaign finance violation charges, and Governor Tom Wolf demands his resignation.

October 2015 (continued): Justin Trudeau forms a government in Canada. Daniel Scioli of the FPV-PJ wins the Argentinean presidential election as his Peronist/Kirchnerist coalition suffers modest losses but retains its majority over both houses - in his victory speech, Scioli promises a "change in style and strategy" from the twelve years of the Kirchners, angering his political patrons and many Peronists. The Ponta government in Romania collapses under pressure from the President, Klaus Iohannis, causing concerns of an economic crisis as protests spread.

The October Hurricanes: Two major Atlantic hurricanes cause widespread damage. The first, Hurricane Grace, makes landfall as a Category 4 storm in early October in South Carolina and south Georgia, wreaking havoc in Savannah and Charleston. The second, Hurricane Joaquin, ravages the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands as a Category 5 storm and then barely weakens before hitting Venezuela as a Category 4. Caracas and surrounding low-lying municipalities are flooded, with nearly 30,000 deaths from the hurricane and thousands more as millions are left without power, oil rigs are swept ashore along with ships and vast looting and anarchy spreads across much of the country's populous and devastated coastal region. Joaquin is determined as the most destructive hurricane in history.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2015 (States)

Kentucky

Running on a platform of protecting Kynect and the Medicaid expansion of outgoing Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, AG Jack Conway wins a surprisingly comfortable 54-43 contest over businessman Matt Bevin to be elected Governor. Despite a barrage of outside spending, Democrats sweep every statewide office. SOS Alison Lundergan-Grimes and Auditor Adam Edelen are reelected, and new officeholders are elected to the Attorney General, State Treasurer and Ag Commissioner's offices: Andrew Beshear, Dan Grossberg, and Dennis Parrett, respectively. The wide margins in many downballot offices came as a surprise after the disastrous Democratic performance in Appalachia only one year earlier.

Louisiana

Senator David Vitter (R) and House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards (D) advance to a runoff for Governor. Former US Rep. Jeff Landry wins election to the Attorney General's office on the first ballot, John N. Kennedy is reelected to a fifth term as State Treasurer, and Elbert Guillory is elected Lieutenant Governor.  In the Legislature, Republicans gain two seats in the State Senate to pad their majority to 28-11, while Democrats gain three seats in the State House to narrow the Republican majority to 56-47, with two independents.

Mississippi

In one of the more surprising results of the election, Governor Phil Bryant is only reelected narrowly over former Rep. Travis Childers while most other state officeholders, including GOP Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and Democratic AG Jim Hood, cruise to reelection. Bryant's 51-48 win over Childers is regarded as the surprise of the evening, brought on by unprecedented voter registration by Democrats and a campaign waged almost exclusively over the poverty rate and Bryant's refusal to expand Medicaid or establish an ACA exchange.

New Jersey

In legislative action, New Jersey Democrats gain five seats in the General Assembly, increasing their majority to 53-27, giving them a 2/3rds majority. The results are touted by prominent NJ Dems and GOP Presidential contenders as a repudiation of Chris Christie's policies, as the unemployment rate increased and the state received another bond downgrade in the weeks before the election. NJ GOP officials complain publicly for the first time that Christie has spent too much time away from the state campaigning and not helping them with their state-level agenda.

Virginia

The state houses of Virginia move slightly Democrat - the Democrats pick up the Senate seat vacated by John Watkins in the Senate to regain a tie-breaker majority with Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, and Democrats pick up six seats in the House of Delegates, almost all of them in Northern Virginia to improve their standing to 62-38.

[KingSweden]

November 2015: In a particularly busy month, international crises unfold across much of the world. The crisis in Israel intensifies when Hamas assassinates Naftali Bennett and the Israeli army responds by entering the West Bank. The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela escalates as John Kerry, the first US Secretary of State to visit the country in years, is fired upon and is forced to flee the country. With power out and oil operations shuttered from the hurricane, the government is unable to respond to the thousands without food, clean water or electricity, and riots in Caracas and Miranda become violent proxies for clashes between regime supporters and opponents.

November 2015 (continued): The stalemate in the Ukraine continues as Ukraine enters a partial default and is bailed out by the IMF once again. A brief spike in oil prices after Hurricane Joaquin does not survive the structural low costs in the US and most of OPEC and so Russia's recession intensifies. Military coups in Ukraine are twice staved off. In the disintegrating warzone of Libya, Egypt is forced to intervene to stabilize the eastern half of the country, drawing the ire of many Egyptians and Libyans alike. Matteo Renzi calls snap elections in Italy.

[KingSweden]

December 2015: President Obama announces his official Presidential library will be part of the University of Chicago campus on the Southside, as was widely expected. Former Senator and Presidential candidate Bob Dole passes away in Kansas - his funeral is attended by most GOP Presidential candidates, as well as Bill Clinton. On the US political scene, it concludes the first year since 2009 in which there was no crucial standoff or shutdown or budget cliff at the conclusion of the year. A massive snowstorm pummels much of the Northeast, and Mayor Bill De Blasio is criticized for his response. David Vitter wins the runoff for Governor of Louisiana.

December 2015 (continued): Under new electoral rules designed to cut down on the number of parties, Matteo Renzi's center-left coalition wins a majority in Italy's lower house. The death toll continues to approach 100,000 in Venezuela not only from the horrendous conditions after the hurricane but the government's failure to respond to it and the spreading political violence, with both sides radicalizing and forming pseudo-paramilitaries, with opposition members targeting police officers, soldiers and government aid workers, and chavista forces attacking and staging shootings at opposition protests. A refugee crisis emerges, with thousands of Venezuelans fleeing into the rural south or into Colombia and Guyana. The Colombian Army seizes several border crossings after they are abandoned by Venezuelan forces.

Fidel Castro Dies: Fidel Castro dies at the age of 89 in Havana. Though he had not held real power for years, Castro's death represents a major historical moment, particularly in Latin America. There are massive demonstrations in many countries both memorializing him and condemning him - a massive street party, mostly of older Cubans, begins in Miami shortly after the news emerges, which is criticized in Latin American media. His younger brother, Cuban President Raul Castro, declares a national month of mourning and begins organizing a lavish state funeral that is criticized for its excess both at home and abroad.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Fidel Castro Dies: Fidel Castro dies at the age of 89 in Havana. Though he had not held real power for years, Castro's death represents a major historical moment, particularly in Latin America. There are massive demonstrations in many countries both memorializing him and condemning him - a massive street party, mostly of older Cubans, begins in Miami shortly after the news emerges, which is criticized in Latin American media. His younger brother, Cuban President Raul Castro, declares a national month of mourning and begins organizing a lavish state funeral that is criticized for its excess both at home and abroad.

On another random note, will Casto be embalmed? That seems to be the route taken by long term communist dictators.

[KingSweden]

Fidel Castro Dies: Fidel Castro dies at the age of 89 in Havana. Though he had not held real power for years, Castro's death represents a major historical moment, particularly in Latin America. There are massive demonstrations in many countries both memorializing him and condemning him - a massive street party, mostly of older Cubans, begins in Miami shortly after the news emerges, which is criticized in Latin American media. His younger brother, Cuban President Raul Castro, declares a national month of mourning and begins organizing a lavish state funeral that is criticized for its excess both at home and abroad.

On another random note, will Casto be embalmed? That seems to be the route taken by long term communist dictators.

He definitely seems like an embalming candidate

[KingSweden]

Meanwhile, earlier this fall...

Polish general election, 2015

Ewa Kopacz and the PO are reelected to an unprecedented third term in government, taking 36% of the vote to the PiS coalition's 30%. The PO's coalition partner, PSL, scores a 7%, the SLD takes 11% and several smaller parties take the rest of the percentage, all failing to cross the 5% threshold required to enter parliament, including third-party Your Movement. The election keeps the same liberal-conservative government that Poland has seen for eight years in charge and makes Poland be regarded as one of the most politically stable countries in the EU after Germany, particularly after the volatile elections and post-election situations earlier in the year in Spain, Portugal and Britain. Kopacz cites this development as proof that "Poland is now, if it wasn't before, irreversibly a major European power." Stock markets in Europe rally at the news.

[Mehmentum]

I'm really enjoying the amount of detail you put into both US and international events.  Keep up the good work!