Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

November 2027: One of the warmest Novembers in history roils the United States, with temperatures staying in the high 60s in much of the Midwest and Northeast. Sandoval names former Washington State Attorney General Rob McKenna, counsel for several large lobbying firms and corporations, as his AG for the remainder of his term. McKenna is slow-rolled through committee hearings. Economic news worsens with yet another poor jobs report and stock market decline.

On the election trail, the sniping between candidates continues to worsen. It is now an open question whether Gillibrand '28 is one of the worst campaigns in modern history as she continues slipping down into Lori Swanson levels of polling deficits. A top tier of Seth Moulton, Gavin Newsom and Anthony Foxx starts to emerge on the Democratic side, with a top tier of Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz forming on the Republican side.

November 2027 (continued): The Cambodian flu's deadly spread starts to accelerate as the Northern hemisphere enters flu season. Close to a million people are now estimated dead. A political crisis is triggered in Germany as Chancellor Frank's government loses a confidence vote, with nearly half of the CDU/CSU voting against the sitting Chancellor. Frank announces snap elections only two years after winning.

[Mike Thick]

It lives!

[KingSweden]

December 2027: The first cases of Cambodian flu are reported in the United States and Canada, sending wide alarms and stock markets continue their fall. President Sandoval signs an executive order mandating 45-day quarantines for anyone who contracts the disease and announces limited travel bans from Southeast Asia, a move he had been pressed to do for a long time. McKenna is approved as US Attorney General after a more-controversial-than-necessary series of hearings by the Senate.

On the campaign trail, the debates get testy and Tom Kean and Paul Ryan continue to sink in opinion polls, both splitting the center-right, establishmentarian wing of the party with the more populist, hawkish Cotton and the SoCon Cruz trading poll leads. Cotton is widely seen as acceptable to the foreign policy establishment unhappy with Sandoval's cautious approach, populist-nationalists unhappy with yet another tax cut for the wealthy as well as Sandoval's openness to immigration, and some establishment conservatives who like his long paper trail of support for some of their causes.

December 2027 (continued): Cambodian flu starts to wreak havoc in Russia as well, with recovering, poorly-heated parts of the country especially susceptible. The winter in Europe is unusually mild, keeping oil and heating costs low but ruining ski season and threatening terrible droughts the next year across much of the Northern Hemisphere. The German general election is officially scheduled for the third week in January and the campaign begins to ramp up as Britain's McMahon and France's Macron watch with concern as the flailing German parties start to lose ground to a suddenly-surging AfD.

And now, for Sports!: New York City FC wins its second-ever MLS Cup by beating Sporting Kansas City on penalty kicks in New York. LSU running back Mychal Green wins the Heisman after rushing for 2,079 yards and twenty-two touchdowns in one season and leading the Tigers to an undefeated season.

[KingSweden]

2027-28 College Football Playoff

Non Playoff Bowls

2027 Peach Bowl: Central Michigan defeats Florida State
2028 Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame defeats Arizona State
2028 Rose Bowl: Washington defeats Nebraska
2028 Sugar Bowl: Texas defeats Georgia

Playoff Bowls

2027 Cotton Bowl: #2 Oklahoma defeats #3 Miami
2027 Orange Bowl: #1 LSU defeats #4 Ohio State
CFP National Championship: Oklahoma beats LSU. Oklahoma are the 2027 National Champions!

[KingSweden]

January 2028: Happy New Year! The campaigns get uglier as Iowa approaches, with Seth Moulton ratcheting up attacks on Gavin Newsom for sleeping with his aide and friend's wife nearly thirty years earlier while Mayor of San Francisco and Newsom calling Moulton a "false progressive." Meanwhile, the flamewar within the black community between Booker and Barnes only makes Foxx look good by comparison. Cruz refers to Cotton as "dangerous" during the final GOP debate pre-Iowa, while Kean refers to Cruz as a "theocrat." Good times!

Sandoval, meanwhile, expands the Cambodian flu quarantine order. The unusually dry winter has the lowest North American snowfall in recorded history and signals a terrible drought coming down the pike. Several states begin preemptive water rationing plans ahead of what is expected to be a rough one. Tragedy strikes on January 31st as the aging State Department plane carrying SOS Victoria Nuland and much of her senior staff crashes in the South Atlantic en route to an African diplomatic swing, killing everybody onboard.

January 2028 (continued): The FDP in Germany loses major party status as the AfD takes nearly 20% of the vote. Willy Frank resigns as Chancellor in the face of a CDU/CSU-SDP "grand majority," with Die Linke and Greens left out. Longtime, yet young, CDU cabinet official and insider Jens Spahn is tapped to be the next Chancellor after the disastrous run of "outsider" Frank.

The Cambodian flu continues to wreak havoc in southern Asia and Africa, though certain vaccines and treatments begin to be shown to be effective. Protests continue to roil many of the countries affected by quarantines, flu-ridden neighborhoods and poor governmental responses. The government of Kenya collapses during a particularly violent protest after the death toll approaches 50,000. The exponential death toll of Cambodian flu inches near two million worldwide. South American leaders convene in Sao Paolo to discuss a unified response, particularly in rural communities with poor healthcare. Medicins Sans Frontieres warns that nearly twenty million worldwide might be infected, according to some estimates.

And now, for Sports!: Uruguay's Géronimo wins the Ballon d'Or, the second straight Uruguayan footballer to win the award. In NFL play, the New York Jets defeat rival Buffalo Bills on the road in the AFC title game while the Green Bay Packers, after years of franchise malaise, beat the New Orleans Saints at home in the NFC title game to advance to Super Bowl LXII.

[KingSweden]

Iowa Caucuses - February 1st, 2028

Democratic - 52 Delegates (+7 superdelegates)

(A note - the Democratic primary is, before this point, reformed so that only *sitting* officeholders, limited to US Reps, Governors, Senators, the Democratic caucus leader of ONE of the state houses, ONE row officer and the state party chair may serve as superdelegates. This change is made to incentivize state parties to win offices and to remove some of the arbitrariness and insideriness as to who gets picked as a super. This means that Iowa has 1 (G), 1 (S), 3 (R), 1 (L), 1 (RO) and 1 (PC) for a total of 7 superdelegates.)

For the supers, moving forward, they are G for Governor, S for Senator, R for Representative, L for Legislature, RO for Row Officer, and PC for Party Chair.

Results:

Seth Moulton 33% - 21 delegates
Anthony Foxx 30% - 18 delegates
Gavin Newsom 23% - 12 delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand 8% - 1 delegate
Mandela Barnes 4%
Cory Booker 2%
Lori Swanson 0.5%

Following his disastrous showing, Booker announces he is suspending his campaign, as does Lori Swanson, who bet her entire joke of a candidacy on Iowa. Barnes and Gillibrand announce they will stay in. The victory is a huge one for Moulton, who beat out Newsom as the candidate with a foot in both the establishment and the grassroots, while Foxx did very well for himself, too.


Republicans - 34 delegates


Paul Ryan 26% - 8 delegates
Ted Cruz 23% - 8 delegates
Tom Cotton 21% - 8 delegates
Ben Sasse 19% - 6 delegates
Tom Kean 10% - 4 delegates

Nobody drops out, though Ben Sasse - the caucus winner four years earlier - is seen as mortally wounded. Many rightist candidates serve to split up the conservative vote, giving Paul Ryan a big win headed to perceived friendlier turf in New Hampshire, where Kean is staking his candidacy.

[KingSweden]

New Hampshire Primary - February 15, 2028

Democrats - 30 Delegates, 6 Supers

Supers - 1 G, 2 R, 1 S, 1 L, 0 RO (due to New Hampshire's appointed row officers), 1 PC = 6 Supers

Results:

Seth Moulton 35% - 12 delegates (Total 33)
Gavin Newsom 29% - 9 delegates (Total 21)
Anthony Foxx 27% - 9 delegates (Total 27)
Mandela Barnes 6% - 0 delegates (Total 0)
Kirsten Gillibrand 3% - 0 delegates (Total 1)
Cory Booker (s) <1%
Lori Swanson (s) <1%

It is a stunning rebuke for Kirsten Gillibrand, the most recent Democratic Vice President, and she announces in a tearful speech from Manchester, where she was with endorsers Senator Joe Foster and former Governor and Senator Maggie Hassan that she will be suspending her campaign for President. It is a massive win for Seth Moulton in his neighboring state, where he wins the lucrative double-whammy of taking both of the first primaries and becoming a prohibitive frontrunner heading into dubious territory in South Carolina and Colorado later in the month.

Republicans - 24 delegates

(Viability is 15%)

Tom Cotton 25% - 6 delegates (Total 14)
Paul Ryan 24% - 6 delegates (Total 14)
Tom Kean 18% - 5 delegates (Total 10)
Ted Cruz 18% - 5 delegates (Total 13)
Ben Sasse 15% - 2 delegates (Total

With all five candidates viable, everybody splits up the delegates. Kean's campaign helps deny Ryan a much-needed boost in New Hampshire and allows Cotton back into the game before friendly turf in South Carolina. Cruz's campaign starts to hit the panic button after consecutive setbacks and Sasse announces he is dropping out despite still being in the delegate game.

[KingSweden]

July 2016: A week before the RNC, Ted Cruz taps Rob Portman as his running mate, viewed largely as an effort to appease the center-right business wing of the party, and in an effort to rebuke both Christie and Walker, who ran significantly more negative campaigns towards Cruz, as well as Rand Paul, who in one debate stated that "America would be fundamentally unsafe under a Ted Cruz Presidency." Still, to heal the rift with the Paulist wing of the party, Cruz asks Paul to be the keynote speaker and has Marco Rubio introduce Paul. There are mass protests in Cleveland during the RNC, some of the largest at a convention in decades (though there is no violence or incidents with the police like Chicago '68).

July 2016 (continued): Russia shifts more weapons and armor into Ukraine, where the most violent conflict since the Yugoslav wars shows no sign of stopping. After a quasi-constitutional delay, the Greek general election is held on July 1st, and Syriza wins the most seats, entering an anti-austerity coalition with Independent Greeks and PASOK, which suffered massive losses. Golden Dawn fails to reach the threshold to enter government, with ND under Samaras forming the opposition. The new Tsipras government causes broad losses not only in European but global stock markets.

And now, for sports: At Euro 2016, Italy defeats the surprise of the tournament, Poland, to advance to the final for the second tournament in a row. Portugal defeats Germany in kickoffs to advance to the final, where Cristiano Ronaldo cues Portugal to a 1-0 victory in extra time over the Italians, giving them their first-ever major international championship. Ronaldo is the Player of the Tournament, while Robert Lewandowski has the most goals, with seven goals, two behind Platini's record and adding to his ten goals in the qualifying rounds, giving him 17 goals including qualifying, the best performance in UEFA history. Brazil's 2016 Olympics go off without a hitch or any of the protests that marred the 2013 Confederations Cup. Ryan Lochte wins three golds in swimming while Usain Bolt wins three golds, placing him in the all-time gold medalist rankings in what are viewed as likely being his final Olympic games.

Let the record show that I predicted Portugal winning Euro 2016... In November of 2014. I will now accept my accolades.

As for my Rio 16 prediction of it going off without a hitch... Well we can't all be perfect can we?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

FL-02: One of the top GOP pickup opportunities in the country, the GOP nominates Halsey Beshears to take on Gwen Graham. Graham is prepared for all comers, however, and defeats Beshears 52-47 to hold the seat.

I got to know Halsey a bit through my internship. He's a character straight out of Americana. The type of character that only Mechaman could have dreamed up .

[KingSweden]

FL-02: One of the top GOP pickup opportunities in the country, the GOP nominates Halsey Beshears to take on Gwen Graham. Graham is prepared for all comers, however, and defeats Beshears 52-47 to hold the seat.

I got to know Halsey a bit through my internship. He's a character straight out of Americana. The type of character that only Mechaman could have dreamed up .

I have to say it's pretty cool you interned with RPOF. Any insight as to why Halsey didn't run for the redrawn seat in real life?

[KingSweden]

Pop Culture Break - Feb 2028

Super Bowl LXII - The New York Jets defeat the Green Bay Packers 48-24 as MVP Shea Patterson throws 316 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. It is the second Jets title in history, and first in nearly 60 years.

100th Academy Awards - Something cool for political nerds, as the sprawling 237 minute epic "Clintonland," detailing the marriage of the Clintons in a non-linear style from their meeting at Yale in the 1970s to Hillary's resignation in 2021 after two severe strokes, cleans house, winning Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Miles Teller as Bill Clinton), Best Actress (Margot Robbie as Hillary Clinton), Best Score, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Cinematography, and Best Supporting Actor (Jack Black as Newt Gingrich). It is nominated for three other awards that it does not win, including Supporting Actress for newcomer Abbie Deck (f), who plays Monica Lewinsky. In total Clintonland wins 9 Oscars, a veritable landslide in the post-Return of the King Academy landscape.

[KingSweden]

South Carolina Primary, February 22, 2028

Democrats - 80 Delegates, 3 Supers

Supers = 0 G, 1 R, 0 S, 1 L, 0 RO, 1 PC

Results:

Anthony Foxx 52% - 43 Delegates (Total 70)
Seth Moulton 30% - 30 Delegates (Total 63)
Gavin Newsom 14% - 7 Delegates (Total 28)
Mandela Barnes 3% - 0 Delegates (Total 0)
Kirsten Gillibrand (s) <1% - 0 Delegates (Total 1)
Cory Booker (s) <1% -  0 Delegates

Mandela Barnes announces he will drop out after failing to net any delegates. Newsom falls dangerously behind heading into perceived friendly territory in Colorado next week.

[rpryor03]

A movie that's almost FOUR HOURS? Jfc.

[KingSweden]

A movie that's almost FOUR HOURS? Jfc.

You've obviously never watched Gone With the Wind, Heaven's Gate, or Once Upon A Time in America, friend.

Though they are certainly a chore...

[Kingpoleon]

If you're talking about Murphy from the MN house, then she went to UW Oshkosh and St. Catherine's.

No, this Erin Murphy was a clerk for Roberts in 2006 or so. I needed a potential conservative jurist under 50 for Sandoval to pick and, well... Slim pickin's

Jake Coleman, Leslie Rutledge, Adam Laxalt, Craig Richards, and Joseph Cao are all currently under fifty...

[KingSweden]

If you're talking about Murphy from the MN house, then she went to UW Oshkosh and St. Catherine's.

No, this Erin Murphy was a clerk for Roberts in 2006 or so. I needed a potential conservative jurist under 50 for Sandoval to pick and, well... Slim pickin's

Jake Coleman, Leslie Rutledge, Adam Laxalt, Craig Richards, and Joseph Cao are all currently under fifty...

Under 50 circa 2025

[Kingpoleon]

If you're talking about Murphy from the MN house, then she went to UW Oshkosh and St. Catherine's.

No, this Erin Murphy was a clerk for Roberts in 2006 or so. I needed a potential conservative jurist under 50 for Sandoval to pick and, well... Slim pickin's

Jake Coleman, Leslie Rutledge, Adam Laxalt, Craig Richards, and Joseph Cao are all currently under fifty...

Under 50 circa 2025

Leslie Lutledge(49), Adam Laxalt(47), and Jake Coleman(37-38) would all be under fifty, while Richards would be turning fifty that year.

Could I get a snapshot of what is currently AR-3?

[KingSweden]

If you're talking about Murphy from the MN house, then she went to UW Oshkosh and St. Catherine's.

No, this Erin Murphy was a clerk for Roberts in 2006 or so. I needed a potential conservative jurist under 50 for Sandoval to pick and, well... Slim pickin's

Jake Coleman, Leslie Rutledge, Adam Laxalt, Craig Richards, and Joseph Cao are all currently under fifty...

Under 50 circa 2025

Leslie Lutledge(49), Adam Laxalt(47), and Jake Coleman(37-38) would all be under fifty, while Richards would be turning fifty that year.

Could I get a snapshot of what is currently AR-3?

Leslie Rutledge is a fiiiine looking lady, BTW. I think she might actually be the US Rep of AR-3 though I'm not positive...

[KingSweden]

South Carolina Primary - Republicans

50 Delegates (15 Statewide, 35 by CD at 5 per district's winner)

Results:

Tom Cotton 37% - 28 Delegates (Carries 4 CDs) (Total 42)
Paul Ryan 30% - 19 Delegates (Carries 3 CDs) (Total 33)
Ted Cruz 21% - 3 Delegates (Total 16)
Tom Kean 8% - 0 Delegates (Total 10)
Ben Sasse (s) 4% - 0 Delegates (Total

Cruz's campaign is on life support as Cotton earns a potential knockout blow and sets up a one-on-one against establishmentarians Ryan and Kean, with him perfectly soaking up support from fiscal conservatives, populists, social conservatives and hawks. Kean debates dropping out, but decides not to, to Ryan's chagrin.

[KingSweden]

Colorado Primary - February 29, 2028

(Colorado's primary has replaced the Nevada caucuses as the big Western early-state primary, the last contest before Super Tuesday on March 14th).

Democrats - 150 Delegates, 11 Supers

Supers - 1 G, 2 S, 5 R, 1 RO, 1 L, 1 PC

Results:

Gavin Newsom 37% - 60 Delegates (Total 88)
Seth Moulton 35% - 55 Delegates (Total 118)
Anthony Foxx 24% - 35 Delegates (Total 105)
Others 4% (0 Delegates)

Newsom gets a massive shot in the arm, even though the delegate math remains largely unchanged, headed into a Super Tuesday where the black and Southern Foxx is expected to do very well. The Democratic primary continues to heat up as the three-way debate two days before Colorado gets testy between the candidates.

Republican - 88 Delegates

The last contest before the GOP contest allows Winner Take All (not that most are WTA).

Results:

Paul Ryan 30% - 32 Delegates (Total 65)
Tom Cotton 30% - 31 Delegates (Total 73)
Ted Cruz 24% - 25 Delegates (Total 41)
Tom Kean 14% - 0 Delegates, nonviable (Total 10)
Others: 2%

Paul Ryan earns a new lease on life to stop Cotton - a poor fit for Colorado - from gaining even more momentum after earning 2 out of the first 3 states. Kean unexpectedly announces he will stay in the race through Super Tuesday, as does Cruz.

[KingSweden]

CD Snapshot

This Week: Arkansas' 3rd

Nine-term US Rep. Steve Womack gets in his truck and starts driving towards a constituent barbecue in Fayetteville. "It'll be nice being back here long term," the ranking GOP member of the Appropriations Committee and former Republican Study Committee chair says. A major political shift is occurring in Northwest Arkansas - NWA - as Womack announced late last year that he would be retiring after eighteen years in the House.

Womack is, in many ways, "old NWA." Staunchly conservative, hailing from what was at the time Arkansas' most conservative district. Times have changed, however, in one of the few parts of the state that is actually seeing population and job growth fueled by Walmart, Tyson Inc, and the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. As more and more Midwestern transplants arrive and the center of population in Arkansas creeps further and further northwest as the black belt and rural counties depopulate and become more Hispanic flavored, NWA will presage where the state heads next.

"I think rather than Republicans winning by 30 or 40 points up here, I think you'll see Republicans winning by 10 to 15 points," Fayetteville mayor Brady Evans suggests. Evans, who has overseen a continuing boom in Fayetteville and is running for State Senate this year as a Democrat, remarked that the city of Fayetteville itself is only the second city in Arkansas to cross 100,000 residents in population and has become the state's second largest city. "Those people came from somewhere. A lot of the black belt has shifted to Little Rock, so the people coming here? New Southerners, all of them."

When asked why he didn't run for the open 3rd, Evans demurred, "We ain't there yet."

There are a lot of reasons for that. Local Republicans acknowledge that while the 1st and 4th districts seem to have moved in their direction and are now more Republican than the 3rd, Tom Cotton's Presidential bid - a much more disciplined operation than four years ago - is ginning up excitement among Republicans here. Despite his narrow win in the 2026 midterms, Cotton has regained his popularity and has recaptured his energy ever since the dismally unpopular President Sandoval, also a Republican, announced his retirement.

For Womack, the changing area is a reminder of why he loves Northwest Arkansas - "It's a great place to raise a family, to start a business, to build a life. When people think of the Ozarks, they have all kinds of nasty stereotypes. Here, though? This is where Arkansas is happening. We have a real information-based, 21st century economy. Exciting times."

[KingSweden]

Super Tuesday!!!!!

So I'm going to blow off delegate counts because otherwise Super Tuesday would take up all of my time. Let's just say it's pretty clear that state winners get a big advantage, though on the Democratic side this is less decisive, naturally. A (W) for GOP means Winner Take All.

Democrats

Seth Moulton: MA, VT, KY, NV (caucus), OK, MN, IL, MI, FL, VA, AR, TX, KS

Anthony Foxx: GA, TN, LA, MS, AL, MD

Gavin Newsom: none

After having only won Colorado and badly trailing in delegate count, Newsom announces from California late into the night that he is dropping out. With his departure from the race, the two most deep-pocketed Democrats have left the race, leaving the surprising progressive darling Moulton and the popular black Foxx in the race, both having been underdogs upon entering the fray earlier the previous year.

Republicans

Tom Cotton: KY (W), TN (W), GA (W), LA, MS (W), AL, KS, AR (W), FL (W), OK, NV (caucus), VA, MN (W), MI (W)

Paul Ryan: MD (W), MA, IL

Ted Cruz: TX

Tom Kean: VT (W)

After Kean duds out with only a narrow win in Vermont, he drops out of the race. Cotton's smashing victory across the South powers him into the pole position ahead of the flagging Cruz and Ryan campaigns. Ryan, in particular, is seen as having been broadly rebuked by the depth of Cotton's win, which is (of course) heavily concentrated in the South. Cotton's broadly populist campaign is seen as hitting a nerve.

[Kingpoleon]

Darn it! I liked Newsom and Kean best. Oh well.

If you want, I could write up a list of potential congressmen for NWA.

[KingSweden]

Darn it! I liked Newsom and Kean best. Oh well.

If you want, I could write up a list of potential congressmen for NWA.

As a bonafide centrist Dem who skews technocratic, I'm actually one of the rare Atlasians who really, really likes Gavin Newsom. I just doubt him or Kean (who I also like) could win in these conditions as I've extrapolated here.

Sure, if you think many of them would still be in the game 12 years from now. I always welcome suggestions!

[Kingpoleon]

Bump!