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  LA-Suffolk: RIP Landrieu
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Author Topic: LA-Suffolk: RIP Landrieu  (Read 1859 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 27, 2014, 10:19:27 am »

http://www.wwltv.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/27/wwl-poll-landrieu-leads-in-primary-cassidy-wins-runoff/18000285/

Landrieu 36
Cassidy 35
Maness 11

Cassidy 48
Landrieu 41
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2014, 12:15:03 pm »

Considering Suffolk constantly has a republican bias.

This isn't over!
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2014, 12:17:10 pm »

I feel like we have a better shot in Arkansas than Louisiana at this point.  At least Pryor doesn't have to worry about the drop off in turn out during the run off.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2014, 12:18:46 pm »

I feel like we have a better shot in Arkansas than Louisiana at this point.  At least Pryor doesn't have to worry about the drop off in turn out during the run off.

Both are probably out of reach, but yeah, it's between Arkansas and Lousiana for most endangered Democrat.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2014, 12:22:33 pm »

I feel like we have a better shot in Arkansas than Louisiana at this point.  At least Pryor doesn't have to worry about the drop off in turn out during the run off.

There was no drop off in 2002.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2014, 12:24:43 pm »

Considering Suffolk constantly has a republican bias.

This isn't over!

Of course it's not over, especially if the LA seat is the one that will determine control of the Senate.

However, I don't think many Maness voters will be pulling the lever for Landrieu in the runoff, given that they are mainly going to be Tea Party Republicans.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2014, 01:37:14 pm »

Landrooo has pulled off upsets before, but you can't be lucky forever.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2014, 02:32:31 pm »

Landrooo has pulled off upsets before, but you can't be lucky forever.

But that was during LA's awkward teenage years. Now it's red as can be
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Vosem
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2014, 02:38:44 pm »

I feel like we have a better shot in Arkansas than Louisiana at this point.  At least Pryor doesn't have to worry about the drop off in turn out during the run off.

There was no drop off in 2002.

Even without drop-off, Landrieu trails Cassidy+Maness by 11. The whole is always less than the sum of its parts in politics, but I don't think that's an advantage that can be overcome by anything less than conservative drop-off being significantly greater than liberal drop-off, which seems profoundly unlikely. Landrieu is gone, though it'll take a month longer than in Arkansas for this to be ratified.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2014, 03:10:17 pm »

I feel like we have a better shot in Arkansas than Louisiana at this point.  At least Pryor doesn't have to worry about the drop off in turn out during the run off.

There was no drop off in 2002.

Even without drop-off, Landrieu trails Cassidy+Maness by 11. The whole is always less than the sum of its parts in politics, but I don't think that's an advantage that can be overcome by anything less than conservative drop-off being significantly greater than liberal drop-off, which seems profoundly unlikely. Landrieu is gone, though it'll take a month longer than in Arkansas for this to be ratified.

Louisiana voters are used to having runoffs, as its part of the electoral culture. You're overlooking that if you're counting on signficant dropoff between the primary and runoff.

My sense from talking to Maness supporters is that they'd almost rather sit out the runoff as opposed to voting for Cassidy. I forget which poll it was, I think it was CNN or Fox, but less than 80% of Maness supporters said they're likely to vote in the runoff he doesn't get a spot.

From my talks with operatives in the LA DP, they're pretty confident about ground game; as of yesterday, early voting totals were already double what they were in 2010. I'm pretty confident they'd be able to replicate that in December.

Now, if you have any such local insights, please do share!
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2014, 03:19:47 pm »

I feel like we have a better shot in Arkansas than Louisiana at this point.  At least Pryor doesn't have to worry about the drop off in turn out during the run off.

There was no drop off in 2002.

Even without drop-off, Landrieu trails Cassidy+Maness by 11. The whole is always less than the sum of its parts in politics, but I don't think that's an advantage that can be overcome by anything less than conservative drop-off being significantly greater than liberal drop-off, which seems profoundly unlikely. Landrieu is gone, though it'll take a month longer than in Arkansas for this to be ratified.

Louisiana voters are used to having runoffs, as its part of the electoral culture. You're overlooking that if you're counting on signficant dropoff between the primary and runoff.

I'm not; in fact, I'm commenting on the likelihood that there won't be a large drop-off of one group disproportionately to another group.

My sense from talking to Maness supporters is that they'd almost rather sit out the runoff as opposed to voting for Cassidy. I forget which poll it was, I think it was CNN or Fox, but less than 80% of Maness supporters said they're likely to vote in the runoff he doesn't get a spot.

I haven't talked with any Maness supporters, but that seems to be contradicted by polling that has pretty consistently shown Landrieu narrowly leading Cassidy in the jungle primary but losing by high single digits in the runoff. Where else is Cassidy getting those voters if they're not second-preference? And in my experience in most other races when TP candidates lose primaries their voters may complain and dither but they always end up voting for the Republican.

From my talks with operatives in the LA DP, they're pretty confident about ground game; as of yesterday, early voting totals were already double what they were in 2010. I'm pretty confident they'd be able to replicate that in December.

Now, if you have any such local insights, please do share!

I don't, and I understand that being in Louisiana you can see the race in much greater color than I can. But even outside of the state we can interpret polls Smiley
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2014, 03:22:01 pm »

Still five weeks left to go in this one, guys. Don't forget that. Though Landrieu is obviously the underdog.
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Joshua
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2014, 03:33:46 pm »

I hate to admit it, but I will literally shed tears of joy if Landrieu is reelected...
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2014, 03:36:13 pm »

^ Vosem, yeah, Maness supports will of course break more heavily towards Cassidy. I just wouldn't be surprised if a relatively high chunk of his supporters sit out the runoff.

This is one of the more unfavorable polls for Landrieu and I don't think we should read too far into it.

Even the LA Republicans that I talk to are a lot less dismissive of Landrieu than you are.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2014, 03:36:39 pm »

New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Suffolk University on 2014-10-26

Summary: D: 36%, R: 35%, I: 14%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2014, 05:18:12 pm »

I feel like we have a better shot in Arkansas than Louisiana at this point.  At least Pryor doesn't have to worry about the drop off in turn out during the run off.

There was no drop off in 2002.

Even without drop-off, Landrieu trails Cassidy+Maness by 11. The whole is always less than the sum of its parts in politics, but I don't think that's an advantage that can be overcome by anything less than conservative drop-off being significantly greater than liberal drop-off, which seems profoundly unlikely. Landrieu is gone, though it'll take a month longer than in Arkansas for this to be ratified.

Louisiana voters are used to having runoffs, as its part of the electoral culture. You're overlooking that if you're counting on signficant dropoff between the primary and runoff.

My sense from talking to Maness supporters is that they'd almost rather sit out the runoff as opposed to voting for Cassidy. I forget which poll it was, I think it was CNN or Fox, but less than 80% of Maness supporters said they're likely to vote in the runoff he doesn't get a spot.

From my talks with operatives in the LA DP, they're pretty confident about ground game; as of yesterday, early voting totals were already double what they were in 2010. I'm pretty confident they'd be able to replicate that in December.

Now, if you have any such local insights, please do share!

I don't doubt that the Maness supporters are saying that they will not vote right now, but this is basically the equivalent of an open primary with no true party affiliation -- but a battle between two Republicans at the same time.

What ends up happening is that the party re-unifies and goes after the opposition. This will happen more likely than not in LA, much like everywhere else. The leakage will not be 80%.
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2014, 07:14:32 pm »


I was suggesting the leakage would be 20%, as in 80% of Maness voters would vote in the runoff.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2014, 08:03:54 pm »

I hate to admit it, but I will literally shed tears of joy if Landrieu is reelected...

Err... why?
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2014, 08:10:28 pm »

I hate to admit it, but I will literally shed tears of joy if Landrieu is reelected...

Err... why?

I will, too.
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Joshua
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2014, 08:35:32 pm »

I hate to admit it, but I will literally shed tears of joy if Landrieu is reelected...

Err... why?

I will, too.

You seem to be much more optimistic than me, Miles, so I'm sure a Landrieu win might throw me into a mental hospital.
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