LA-Suffolk: RIP Landrieu

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Considering Suffolk constantly has a republican bias.

This isn't over!

Of course it's not over, especially if the LA seat is the one that will determine control of the Senate.

However, I don't think many Maness voters will be pulling the lever for Landrieu in the runoff, given that they are mainly going to be Tea Party Republicans.

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I feel like we have a better shot in Arkansas than Louisiana at this point.  At least Pryor doesn't have to worry about the drop off in turn out during the run off.

There was no drop off in 2002.

Even without drop-off, Landrieu trails Cassidy+Maness by 11. The whole is always less than the sum of its parts in politics, but I don't think that's an advantage that can be overcome by anything less than conservative drop-off being significantly greater than liberal drop-off, which seems profoundly unlikely. Landrieu is gone, though it'll take a month longer than in Arkansas for this to be ratified.

Louisiana voters are used to having runoffs, as its part of the electoral culture. You're overlooking that if you're counting on signficant dropoff between the primary and runoff.

My sense from talking to Maness supporters is that they'd almost rather sit out the runoff as opposed to voting for Cassidy. I forget which poll it was, I think it was CNN or Fox, but less than 80% of Maness supporters said they're likely to vote in the runoff he doesn't get a spot.

From my talks with operatives in the LA DP, they're pretty confident about ground game; as of yesterday, early voting totals were already double what they were in 2010. I'm pretty confident they'd be able to replicate that in December.

Now, if you have any such local insights, please do share!

I don't doubt that the Maness supporters are saying that they will not vote right now, but this is basically the equivalent of an open primary with no true party affiliation -- but a battle between two Republicans at the same time.

What ends up happening is that the party re-unifies and goes after the opposition. This will happen more likely than not in LA, much like everywhere else. The leakage will not be 80%.