Georgia-PPP: Bush slightly ahead, 6 others trailing Clinton (user search)
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  Georgia-PPP: Bush slightly ahead, 6 others trailing Clinton (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia-PPP: Bush slightly ahead, 6 others trailing Clinton  (Read 1672 times)
Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: October 07, 2014, 01:29:42 PM »

So she is doing roughly the same in Georgia and Iowa?  Weird, and shouldn't the difference between the midterm and presidential electorate be a lot more dramatic in GA than in IA?

I don't think it's that weird. Hillary isn't really a good fit for Iowa, while the Clinton brand has always done well down South. I think it's perfectly possible that she would do better in GA than in IA in a presidential election. I'd also suggest that the difference in Georgia's electorate between midterm and presidential (at least recently) isn't that extreme when you consider how party is polarized by race. More than anything, we saw in 2010 a huge national wave and in 2006 (despite a Dem wave) the continued collapse of Democrats in Georgia at that time. Usually, midterm turnout is 1-3 points whiter than the previous presidential election, and with it being polarized by race like I mentioned, this shouldn't (in two comparable climates) produce a huge variance in and of itself.

Quick, someone post the "Blue Georgia is evolving into Red Georgia" gif!

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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2014, 06:50:11 PM »

If this result happened then Gwinnett county likely goes blue while Cobb is very close. Not to mention Henry goes blue easily. The Atlanta metro area has demographics that are quite ominous to the GOP.

I did an assessment of this not long ago for Jason Carter & Michelle Nunn (the one below in particular is Carter's map); I imagine a few of the south-central GA counties and some of the smaller, rural ones along the northern fringes of the Black Belt would need to be flipped back to R for this map to be 100% accurate (and yes, Gwinnett/Cobb both would need to move from >40% R to at least >40% D), but this is a fairly accurate representation:

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