Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[windjammer]

Well, if Deal has to resign because of ethic violations, Georgia will be really interesting!
Will the democrats regain the governor office and the senate seat?

BK, what does your family think about Jason Carter?

[PolitiJunkie]

I used to live in very rural Georgia where most of the older voters are former Dixiecrats turned hardcore so-cons. I've asked them about the 2014 Senate election, and most of them have said "we're voting for Sam's kid!" I'm going to ask them about Jason Carter and the gubernatorial as well...I wouldn't be surprised if I get a similar reaction. If I remember correctly, they don't love Deal.

[Bacon King]

Guys if Deal gets arrested what do you think would happen?

BK, what does your family think about Jason Carter?

Not sure, but I'll ask at Thanksgiving

[old timey villain]

Guys if Deal gets arrested what do you think would happen?

BK, what does your family think about Jason Carter?

Not sure, but I'll ask at Thanksgiving

I wasn't aware that a resignation was a possibility. What is it exactly that he's being accused of?

[Bacon King]

Guys if Deal gets arrested what do you think would happen?

BK, what does your family think about Jason Carter?

Not sure, but I'll ask at Thanksgiving

I wasn't aware that a resignation was a possibility. What is it exactly that he's being accused of?

I'm not 100 Percent on the details, but my understanding is that:

The FBI has been questioning whistleblowing employees of the ethics commission who were fired by the new ethics commission chairman for leaking that the old ethics commission chairman got pressured to resign because she wasn't willing to let Deal off the hook for his campaign finance violations (the replacement he appointed let him get off with a "technical fine" of a like three thousand dollars).

[PolitiJunkie]

Guys if Deal gets arrested what do you think would happen?

I think that Jason Carter would be the next Governor of Georgia. If there's one good thing that comes out of these red states, it's that their obsession with law and order sometimes results in a deviation from partisanship.

[Bacon King]

County GOP Straw Poll Results, Senate Primary

Oglethorpe County (October 11)
Paul Broun (36%)
Jack Kingston (36%)
Karen Handel (21%)
Undecided (6%)
Phil Gingrey, Derrick Grayson, David Perdue, & Eugene Yu (0%)

Gwinnett County (September 25)
39% Karen Handel
26% Paul Broun
11% Phil Gingrey
10% Jack Kingston
9% Undecided
5% Derrick Grayson
0% Eugene Yu

Barrow County (August 24th)
Jack Kingston – 69 (28.75%)
Paul Broun – 67 (27.92%)
Karen Handel – 33 (13.75%)
Eugene Yu – 16 (6.67%)
David Perdue – 11 (4.58%)
Phil Gingrey – 8 (3.33%)
Derrick Grayson – 2 (0.83%)
Ken Young – 1 (0.42%)
Undecided – 33 (13.75%)

Floyd County (August 17th)
Gingrey-45 (34.4%)
Handel- 35 (26.7%)
Broun- 24 (18.3%)
Kingston- 18 (13.7%)
Perdue- 7 (5.3%)
Grayson- 2 (1.5%)
Yu -0 (0%)

Fulton County (June 9th)
Handel 42%
Broun 29%
Kingston 23%

State GOP Convention (May 20th)
Karen Handel, 42 votes;
Jack Kingston, 21 votes;
Paul Broun, 14 votes;
Phil Gingrey, 9 votes;
David Perdue, 3 votes.

[PolitiJunkie]

"Don't worry guys! Jack Kingston will be the nominee and since he is very very moderate, practically a leftist, he will save us from the evil hippie socialist gay Kenyan pedophile libtard Democrat who runs in this race!"

[Bacon King]

That cross-section, to me, does seem to bode well for Kingston... Not so much for Gingrey.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys if Deal gets arrested what do you think would happen?

As much as I'd love to see him go down, I hope it could wait until after May. It'd be highly likely that Pennington could become the front-runner in such a circumstance. He's already destroyed my city - no need to give him keys to the entire state. Pennington makes deal look like a socialist.


Fun maps time!

What would narrow Carter and Nunn victories look like? I'm sure there'd be some areas where each would over and under-perform: maybe y'all can help refine these? Uniform swings in these cases:



Carter - 50%
Deal - 47%



Nunn - 50%
Broun - 47%

[windjammer]

Well, is there a slight chance to regain majority in the state house and state senate in Georgia?
Has someone PVI for state districts please?

[Adam Griffin]

Well, is there a slight chance to regain majority in the state house and state senate in Georgia?
Has someone PVI for state districts please?

There's no way for Georgia Dems to get a majority in either chamber this decade. I'd say that there are around 10 House seats and maybe 4 Senate seats that could be flipped within the next couple of cycles. In 2020, it might be possible to get the House to 105 R - 75 D; Senate to 35 R - 20 D.

I've got a DR map of the House districts somewhere - I'll see if I can find it.

[windjammer]

Thank you  Griffin!

[Bacon King]

posted without comment

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/10/26/georgia-man-runs-into-burning-home-to-get-beer

[Adam Griffin]

posted without comment

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/10/26/georgia-man-runs-into-burning-home-to-get-beer

oh yeah well

http://timesfreepress.com/news/2013/oct/22/police-man-yells-spits-and-strips/

[windjammer]

Have you some news of your dear governor Nathan Deal? Will Carter run?

[windjammer]

http://www.examiner.com/article/democrat-michelle-nunn-draws-republican-donors-support-georgia-senate-race

Good news!

[Adam Griffin]

Has someone PVI for state districts please?

Well, I'm an idiot. I calculated these House districts incorrectly, unfortunately, due to my sobriety. I'm too tired to re-do right now, so I'll get it updated correctly later. The actual PVIs are just a couple points off, but you'll get an idea of how much the northern part of the state is relatively off-limits at this point. These are based on 2008 aggregate vote totals; I'm sure much of this marked is even more Republican.

[windjammer]

Has someone PVI for state districts please?

Well, I'm an idiot. I calculated these House districts incorrectly, unfortunately, due to my sobriety. I'm too tired to re-do right now, so I'll get it updated correctly later. The actual PVIs are just a couple points off, but you'll get an idea of how much the northern part of the state is relatively off-limits at this point. These are based on 2008 aggregate vote totals; I'm sure much of this marked is even more Republican.

Thank you!

[Miles]

The NRSC better be paying attention to this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Flake]

Part of me really wants Broun to win the Republican Senate nomination because I love Michelle Nunn, but the other part is afraid if he might win and what happens.

[Zioneer]

Part of me really wants Broun to win the Republican Senate nomination because I love Michelle Nunn, but the other part is afraid if he might win and what happens.

To be honest, except for being much more inflammatory, how differently could he legislate than Saxby Chambliss?

[free my dawg]

Part of me really wants Broun to win the Republican Senate nomination because I love Michelle Nunn, but the other part is afraid if he might win and what happens.

To be honest, except for being much more inflammatory, how differently could he legislate than Saxby Chambliss?

Foreign policy. Broun is more of a libertarian, while Chambliss is a neocon.

[publicunofficial]

Jason Carter is in.

[Adam Griffin]

The NRSC better be paying attention to this:

U.S. Rep. Paul Broun (R-Athens) won the straw poll asking who should replace retiring U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss at a meet-and-greet this week that attracted a crowd of about 200.

The straw poll saw 58 votes go to Broun, 17 to former Secretary of State Karen Handel, 12 to U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Savannah), 11 to Eugene Yu, 11 to U.S. Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-Marietta) and three votes to Derrick Grayson.

The event was organized by Jason Halliburton of east Cobb, 1st vice chairman of the Georgia Black Republican Council and CEO of Halliburton Strategic Affairs.

Read more: The Marietta Daily Journal - Rep Paul Broun wins straw poll with 58 votes

Gingrey has been really underwhelming lately. I thought he might really be a dark horse for the loons, because he's basically a Broun who usually knows when to keep his mouth shut. Polls seem to be saying Broun, Handel and Kingston. So far, this race's dynamics make this continue to look like a worst-case scenario for Republicans. Gah, if there was only something else that could make a full slate of statewide elected candidates and old-time good vibes even more viable next year...

Jason Carter is in.

Oh, there it is.