Georgia-PPP: Bush slightly ahead, 6 others trailing Clinton
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  Georgia-PPP: Bush slightly ahead, 6 others trailing Clinton
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Author Topic: Georgia-PPP: Bush slightly ahead, 6 others trailing Clinton  (Read 1660 times)
eric82oslo
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« on: October 07, 2014, 11:34:47 AM »

It's looking pretty atrocious right now for Georgia's two favourite sons, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain. Except for Jeb Bush, all GOP candidates are trailing Hillary by margins of between 3% and 6%:

Vs Jeb Bush: 44-45 (R +1%)

Vs Rand Paul: 47-44 (D +3%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 48-45 (D +3%)
Vs Herman Cain: 48-45 (D +3%)
Vs Chris Christie: 46-41 (D +5%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 47-41 (D +6%)
Vs Newt Gingrich: 49-43 (D +6%)

More details here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/republicans-lead-in-georgia-but-senate-race-close.html#more
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2014, 11:38:08 AM »

Quick, someone post the "Blue Georgia is evolving into Red Georgia" gif!
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politicus
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2014, 11:43:52 AM »

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2014, 11:52:25 AM »

Damn, imagine her numbers with a presidential year electorate! Georgia will definitely be in play in 2016.
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King
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2014, 11:53:34 AM »

Whether it holds is not important, what is important is Republicans will have to spend serious cash to win Georgia as part of their 270 path. Georgia.
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2014, 12:17:11 PM »

This is with midterm only voters too, Hillary would be leading Jeb with a general election crowd. I don't think Georgia would be crucial in a tight election but if Hillary wins by 5-6 or more points nationally she definitely can take the state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2014, 12:36:58 PM »

So she is doing roughly the same in Georgia and Iowa?  Weird, and shouldn't the difference between the midterm and presidential electorate be a lot more dramatic in GA than in IA?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2014, 12:53:20 PM »

Damn, imagine her numbers with a presidential year electorate! Georgia will definitely be in play in 2016.

Yeah, this result is extremely surprising considering it's among 2014 likely voters. You would expect one of the biggest dropoffs in Dem turnout to be in Georgia, though maybe the strong campaigns of Nunn and Carter are mitigating this somewhat.

I think it's hilarious how pundits have wet dreams about Jeb winning California when he can't even manage a comfortable lead in Georgia.
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2014, 01:11:36 PM »

The GOP has basically maxed out the white vote in the southeast while the demographics are moving rapidly toward the Dems. If the GOP is in trouble in GA then its over in FL, VA and NC.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2014, 01:29:42 PM »

So she is doing roughly the same in Georgia and Iowa?  Weird, and shouldn't the difference between the midterm and presidential electorate be a lot more dramatic in GA than in IA?

I don't think it's that weird. Hillary isn't really a good fit for Iowa, while the Clinton brand has always done well down South. I think it's perfectly possible that she would do better in GA than in IA in a presidential election. I'd also suggest that the difference in Georgia's electorate between midterm and presidential (at least recently) isn't that extreme when you consider how party is polarized by race. More than anything, we saw in 2010 a huge national wave and in 2006 (despite a Dem wave) the continued collapse of Democrats in Georgia at that time. Usually, midterm turnout is 1-3 points whiter than the previous presidential election, and with it being polarized by race like I mentioned, this shouldn't (in two comparable climates) produce a huge variance in and of itself.

Quick, someone post the "Blue Georgia is evolving into Red Georgia" gif!

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henster
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2014, 04:20:54 PM »

If she's struggling in states like Iowa and Colorado what makes you think she's going to contest states like Georgia? The focus will be holding Obama states first and if your up expand the map.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2014, 04:34:16 PM »

If she's struggling in states like Iowa and Colorado what makes you think she's going to contest states like Georgia? The focus will be holding Obama states first and if your up expand the map.

That depends really, since Georgia is such a big state. I do agree however that Hillary's Iowa blues won't last that long. She'll spend a whole year there campaigning, and surely her numbers can just go up once she starts meeting real voters there. However, if that were not to be the case, and she would continue to struggle like hell in both Iowa and Colorado one year from now (though to be fair, no poll has yet shown any of her competitors even with a tiny lead in Colorado, at best Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan have been tied with her), however unlikely, while she would be slightly ahead of her opponents in Georgia and North Carolina, then it could be a better idea to spend time and money in those two states since they have way more electoral votes. With 16 and 15 each, they match the combined votes from Colorado and Iowa, at 9 and 6 each. Having said this, I think her numbers will improve in both Colorado and Iowa over the next months, so she should probably continue to focus her energy on those for now.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2014, 04:58:24 PM »

If she's struggling in states like Iowa and Colorado what makes you think she's going to contest states like Georgia? The focus will be holding Obama states first and if your up expand the map.

You're assuming that things will stay the exact same as when Obama was the nominee. Granted, things aren't going to change wildly, but they're still going to change. Hillary is stronger in the South and weaker in the West than Obama, both national and state polls consistently show this. CO/IA will be irrelevant if she maintains her current big lead in FL. They're worth a combined 15 electoral votes whereas Florida is worth 29 on its own. As I stated, the critical states where Hillary is stronger than Obama (PA/OH/FL) are far more valuable than the critical states where Obama was stronger than Hillary (CO/IA/NH). 67 electoral votes vs. 19 electoral votes.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2014, 07:44:39 PM »

Could it be that Georgia is getting tired of the GOP?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2014, 01:15:21 AM »

Favorable/unfavorable ratings for Cain and Gingrich:

Cain 43/38% for +5%
Gingrich 42/47% for -5%
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2014, 03:49:54 AM »

As I stated, the critical states where Hillary is stronger than Obama (PA/OH/FL) are far more valuable than the critical states where Obama was stronger than Hillary (CO/IA/NH). 67 electoral votes vs. 19 electoral votes.
This! The fact alone that we're discussing states like Georgia, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa says a lot about how dire the GOP's prospects are.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2014, 06:53:42 AM »

Georgia is critical to the GOP's path to 270, so this will get interesting.

And by "the GOP's path to 270," I really mean "the GOP's path to 200."
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2014, 01:20:02 PM »

If this result happened then Gwinnett county likely goes blue while Cobb is very close. Not to mention Henry goes blue easily. The Atlanta metro area has demographics that are quite ominous to the GOP.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2014, 06:50:11 PM »

If this result happened then Gwinnett county likely goes blue while Cobb is very close. Not to mention Henry goes blue easily. The Atlanta metro area has demographics that are quite ominous to the GOP.

I did an assessment of this not long ago for Jason Carter & Michelle Nunn (the one below in particular is Carter's map); I imagine a few of the south-central GA counties and some of the smaller, rural ones along the northern fringes of the Black Belt would need to be flipped back to R for this map to be 100% accurate (and yes, Gwinnett/Cobb both would need to move from >40% R to at least >40% D), but this is a fairly accurate representation:

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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2014, 02:48:00 PM »

Georgia is critical to the GOP's path to 270, so this will get interesting.

And by "the GOP's path to 270," I really mean "the GOP's path to 200."

LOL, which state isn't??  The GOP is in a terrible situation electorally right now.  :/
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