NBC/Marist: Orman+10, Hagan+4, Ernst+2
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Author Topic: NBC/Marist: Orman+10, Hagan+4, Ernst+2  (Read 3041 times)
Lief 🗽
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« on: October 03, 2014, 03:42:19 PM »
« edited: October 05, 2014, 08:19:21 AM by Tender Branson »

KS:

48-38 Orman/Roberts

NC:

44-40 Hagan/Tillis

IA:

46-44 Ernst/Braley

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/kansas-surprise-orman-leads-roberts-10-nbc-marist-poll-n217911
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2014, 03:52:31 PM »

While we're waiting can you get that suburban white kid out of your sig please? Don't mean to be rude but I've had to ignore you for several days because of that.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2014, 08:18:42 AM »

Updated with the numbers.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2014, 08:24:43 AM »

Those are not really bad numbers ... Wink
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2014, 08:26:17 AM »

RIP Roberts.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2014, 08:29:10 AM »


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2014, 08:38:00 AM »

All the Marist crosstabs (PDF-format):

Kansas

North Carolina

Iowa
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RR1997
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2014, 08:40:38 AM »

This seems accurate.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2014, 08:45:52 AM »

They seem pretty reasonable.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2014, 08:46:37 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2014, 08:50:18 AM by ℒief »

These are the exact same numbers margins PPP last published in these three races.

Maybe Nate Silver et al. will now write an article about how Marist is ripping off other polling firms?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2014, 08:48:47 AM »

These are the exact same numbers PPP last published in these three races.

Maybe Nate Silver et al. will now write an article about how Marist is ripping off other polling firms?

The same margins, not the same numbers ... Wink

And that's mostly because PPP and Marist are both good pollsters, while others are total crap.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2014, 09:25:19 AM »

All these seem accurate.  A small R lead in Iowa, a larger D lead in NC, and Orman running away with it so far.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2014, 09:30:59 AM »

YESSSS. Orman just has to hold the lead for 4 more weeks.
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Flake
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2014, 09:32:48 AM »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-04

Summary: D: 0%, R: 38%, I: 48%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Flake
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2014, 09:36:38 AM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-05

Summary: D: 44%, R: 40%, I: 7%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Flake
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2014, 09:39:29 AM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-05

Summary: D: 44%, R: 46%, I: 1%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2014, 11:09:57 AM »


Time is running out for him. I think I agree unless Orman reveals he's had sex with 5 prostitutes.

He may be able to beat Roberts still with only 3 or 4 Prostitutes Wink
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2014, 01:39:55 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2014, 01:41:42 PM by IceSpear »

Clearly Iowa is a lean R race! Roll Eyes

Good news that Gregory the Gallant is continuing to curbstomp the DC fossil, though I doubt he's leading by this much.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2014, 01:42:25 PM »

Why are Dems celebrating Roberts going down? If these trends continue, Orman will caucus GOP keeping it in their hands anyway.
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KCDem
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2014, 01:43:02 PM »

Why are Dems celebrating Roberts going down? If these trends continue, Orman will caucus GOP keeping it in their hands anyway.

Because when Republicans lose, America wins.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2014, 01:51:59 PM »

No way Roberts is trailing by this much, but he's the underdog now with 30 days to go.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2014, 01:55:54 PM »

No way Roberts is trailing by this much, but he's the underdog now with 30 days to go.

No way? It's the 4th poll showing Orman with at least a 10% lead. It is hardly an outlier.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2014, 02:05:14 PM »

Why are Dems celebrating Roberts going down? If these trends continue, Orman will caucus GOP keeping it in their hands anyway.

Why wouldn't they? Even if Republicans do win the Senate without Orman (which isn't anything close to a safe bet), it would still be better to have a moderate in the seat than a right winger. Same for the Murkowski/Miller race in Alaska in 2010.

Besides, don't forget that Orman could easily switch in the future, particularly if he could be the deciding vote again...say, after the 2016 elections.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2014, 02:07:29 PM »

No way Roberts is trailing by this much, but he's the underdog now with 30 days to go.

No way? It's the 4th poll showing Orman with at least a 10% lead. It is hardly an outlier.

Only PPP has shown Orman with a 10 point lead though, everyone else has shown 5-6 points.
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« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2014, 02:41:03 PM »

Why are Dems celebrating Roberts going down? If these trends continue, Orman will caucus GOP keeping it in their hands anyway.

Is this a serious question? Even if he causes with the GOP, he'll still be a better Senator than Roberts from our perspective.

Did you really think we'd all just say "Well, if we can't get the majority, we'd rather just have a right-winger over a left-leaning centrist in there!!" ?
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