Effect of Vote by Mail in Washington

[GaussLaw]

I know Washington already has vote by mail.

How does that affect midterm turnout, and does an LV screen still apply there?

I know WA polling was fairly effective in 2010 at predicting a narrow Murray win, so I was curious as this will be important for Colorado's race this year.

[IceSpear]

It seems the polling in Washington is pretty consistently more Republican leaning than the final results.

2004 RCP: Kerry +4.5
Final margin: Kerry +7.2
Bias: R+2.7

2006 RCP: Cantwell +13.3
Final margin: Cantwell +17.0
Bias: R+3.7

2008 RCP: Obama +13.0
Final margin: Obama +17.2
Bias: R+4.2

2008 RCP: Gregoire +3.4
Final margin: Gregoire +6.4
Bias: R+3.0

2010 RCP: Murray +0.3
Final margin: Murray +3.8
Bias: R+3.5

2012 RCP: Obama +10.5
Final margin: Obama +14.9
Bias: R+4.4

2012 RCP: Cantwell +20.4
Final margin: Cantwell +20.9
Bias: R+0.5

2012 RCP: Inslee +1.0
Final margin: Inslee +3.0
Bias: R+2.0

Average Republican bias: 3 points

Combine this with the Colorado polls underestimating Democrats even before vote-by-mail (likely due to lowballing Latino turnout), and this is horrible news for Gardner/Beauprez.

[GaussLaw]

It seems the polling in Washington is pretty consistently more Republican leaning than the final results.

2004 RCP: Kerry +4.5
Final margin: Kerry +7.2
Bias: R+2.7

2006 RCP: Cantwell +13.3
Final margin: Cantwell +17.0
Bias: R+3.7

2008 RCP: Obama +13.0
Final margin: Obama +17.2
Bias: R+4.2

2008 RCP: Gregoire +3.4
Final margin: Gregoire +6.4
Bias: R+3.0

2010 RCP: Murray +0.3
Final margin: Murray +3.8
Bias: R+3.5

2012 RCP: Obama +10.5
Final margin: Obama +14.9
Bias: R+4.4

2012 RCP: Cantwell +20.4
Final margin: Cantwell +20.9
Bias: R+0.5

2012 RCP: Inslee +1.0
Final margin: Inslee +3.0
Bias: R+2.0

Average Republican bias: 3 points

Combine this with the Colorado polls underestimating Democrats even before vote-by-mail (likely due to lowballing Latino turnout), and this is horrible news for Gardner/Beauprez.

Good point.  Well, that sucks

I knew the polls had Murry up, but I didn't know it was by that much.  I'm surprised the pollsters don't modify their final voter screens in light of this......

[Miles]

FWIW, PPP's last poll of 2010 (taken the weekend before) had Murray losing by 2 overall, but voters who sent in their ballots later were much more likely to support her:

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[IceSpear]

There is a silver lining for Republicans though. The effect in Oregon (which is also vote by mail) seems a lot more muted, in fact it's probably not even statistically significant.

2004 RCP: Kerry +4.8
Final margin: Kerry +4.2
Bias: D+0.6

2006 RCP: Kulongoski +8.4
Final margin: Kulongoski +7.9
Bias: D+0.5

2008 RCP: Obama +15.6
Final margin: Obama +16.4
Bias: R+0.8

2008 RCP: Merkley +5.3
Final margin: Merkley +3.3
Bias: D+2.0

2010 RCP: Wyden +17.3
Final margin: Wyden +17.9
Bias: R+0.6

2010 RCP: Kitzhaber +2.3
Final margin: Kitzhaber +1.5
Bias: D+0.8

2012 RCP: Obama +6.0
Final margin: Obama +12.0
Bias: R+6.0

Average Republican bias: 0.6 points

Who knows whether Colorado will end up more like OR or WA. And the Latino underpolling problem remains. Colorado is definitely a big question mark this election cycle.