GOP Dark Horses that can come out of nowhere, and win big

[The Vorlon]

You thought the Dems were going to have a pretty strong cycle in 2004.

I did not

I said the GOP would pick up 3 seats net in the Senate, that the House would be essentially unchanged, andf that Bush would get elected "By about a field goal"

The GOP picked up 4 in the senate and a handful in the House, and Bush won by somehwre between a safety and a Field goal...

I don't think the House will move much in 2006 - that body is SOOOOOO gerrymandered it is hard to imagine much movement at all....

Did you know in 2004 on NINE House race in the entire county were decide by less than 5%, only 18 had a margin less than 10%

417/435 races were 10%+ races...

scary actually....

The Senate will be interesting...  The Dems have more seats up, but the GOP might be in a bit more trouble..

Safe Dems

Akaka, Daniel - (D - HI) 
Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM)
Carper, Thomas - (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY) 
Conrad, Kent - (D - ND) 
Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) 
Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) 
Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA)
Jeffords, James - (I - VT) (Defacto Dem seat)
Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA) 
Kohl, Herb - (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT)

Nelson, Ben - (D - NE) - It is Nebraska, so the GOP always has a shot, but Nelson should get a solid though likely not crushing win.

Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD) - Sarbanes is retiring, so it's a open seat...  which give the GOP about the same shot a Muslim has of become Pope...

Safe GOP
 
Allen, George - (R - VA) 
Burns, Conrad - (R - MT) 
DeWine, Mike - (R - OH) 
Ensign, John - (R - NV)

Frist, Bill - (R - TN) - Frist is retiring to run for President, GOP still has the edge

Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX)
Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent - (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard - (R - IN)
Thomas, Craig - (R - WY)

Possible GOP Pickups

Byrd, Robert - (D - WV)  - If Byrd is both a) alive and b) a candidate he wins in a walk, but a & b are hardly givens.  Without Byrd WV would have a mild GOP lean for the Senate seat.

Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA)  - Cantwell is, at best, a middle of the pack Senator, and (presumably) Dino Rossi will have sympathy, name recognition, a ton of money and a Gore2000 like "we was robbed" intensity - This seat is a barn burner - too close to call.

Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) - Lackluster victory in 2000 against a very ordinary GOP candidate, GOP is targeting this seat

Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI) An 'adaquate" candidate in a mildly Dem leaning state so she has a edge, but not a huge one.  A "B+" or better GOP candidate with enough money has a shot..
 
Possible Dem Pickups
 
Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI)  A (nominally)GOP candidate in Rhode Island is by definition vulnerable

Snowe, Olympia - (R - ME) - See Rhode Island, just less so... Snowe is a very good Senator and should win, but don't expect it to be 20 points..

Talent, James - (R - MO)  - Good Senator and great logistics.  Race will be close however.
 
Santorum, Rick - (R - PA)  - The most likely (IMHO) Dem Pickup.  To say Santorum is a "target" is like saying Hitler has issues with anger management...  On a dollars per vote basis, this may be the most expensive election in the history of the Mid-west..

Casey will likely edge him out for a modest victory, say 52 / 48 or so...
 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You thought the Dems were going to have a pretty strong cycle in 2004.

I did not

I said the GOP would pick up 3 seats net in the Senate, that the House would be essentially unchanged, andf that Bush would get elected "By about a field goal"

The GOP picked up 4 in the senate and a handful in the House, and Bush won by somehwre between a safety and a Field goal...

I don't think the House will move much in 2006 - that body is SOOOOOO gerrymandered it is hard to emaigine much movement at all....

Did you know in 2004 on NINE HOuse race in the entire county were decide by less than 5%, only 18 had a margin less than 10%

417/435 races were 10%+ races...

scary actually....

The Senate will be interesting...  The Dems have more seats up, but the GOP might be in a bit more trouble..

Safe Dems

Akaka, Daniel - (D - HI) 
Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM)
Carper, Thomas - (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY) 
Conrad, Kent - (D - ND) 
Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) 
Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) 
Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA)
Jeffords, James - (I - VT)
Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA) 
Kohl, Herb - (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT)

Nelson, Ben - (D - NE) - It is Nebraska, so the GOP always has a shot, but Nelson should get a solid though likely not crushing win.

Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD) - Sarbanes is retiring, so it's a open seat...  which give the GOP about the same shot a Muslim has of become Pope...

Safe GOP
 
Allen, George - (R - VA) 
Burns, Conrad - (R - MT) 
DeWine, Mike - (R - OH) 
Ensign, John - (R - NV)

Frist, Bill - (R - TN) - Frist is retiring to run for President, GOP still has the edge

Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX)
Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent - (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard - (R - IN)
Thomas, Craig - (R - WY)

Possible GOP Pickups

Byrd, Robert - (D - WV)  - If Byrd is both a) alive and b) a candidate he wins in a walk, but a & b are hardly givens.  Without Byrd WV would have a mild GOP lean for the Senate seat.

Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA)  - Cantwell is, at best, a middle of the pack Senator, and (presumably) Dino Rossi will have both sympathy, name recognition, a ton of money and a Gore2000 like "we was robbed" intensity - This seat is a barn burner - too close to call.

Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) - Lackluster victory in 2000 against a very ordinary GOP candidate, GOP is targeting this seat

Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI) An 'adaquate" candidate in a mildly Dem leaning state so she has a edge, but not a huge one.  A "B+" or better GOP candidate with enough money has a shot..
 
Possible Dem Pickups
 
Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI)  A (nominally)GOP candidate in Rhode Island is by definition vulnerable

Snowe, Olympia - (R - ME) - See Rhode Island, just less so... Snowe is a very good Senator and should win, but don't expect it to be 20 points..

Talent, James - (R - MO)  - Good Senator and great logistics.  Race will be close however.
 
Santorum, Rick - (R - PA)  - The most likely (IMHO) Dem Pickup.  To say Santorum is a "target" is like saying Hitler has issues with anger management...  On a dollars per vote basis, this may be the most expensive election in the history of the Mid-west..

Casey will likely edge him out for a modest victory, say 52 / 48 or so...
 

On the Democratic side, NE and MN are more vulnerable than WV, WA, and MI
On the Republican side, TN and MT are more vulnerable than ME. 

[No more McShame]

This is a scary thought, I agree with JFern.  I'll try to never let that happen again

[Akno21]

The polls are all meaningless at this point since most of the top GOP candidates aren't going to run and if over 75% of Dems support Kerry, Hillary, or Edwards we're screwed any way, but there's enough time for other candidates to get known, and enough time for Edwards and Kerry to be forgotten.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You thought the Dems were going to have a pretty strong cycle in 2004.

I did not

I said the GOP would pick up 3 seats net in the Senate, that the House would be essentially unchanged, andf that Bush would get elected "By about a field goal"

The GOP picked up 4 in the senate and a handful in the House, and Bush won by somehwre between a safety and a Field goal...

I don't think the House will move much in 2006 - that body is SOOOOOO gerrymandered it is hard to imagine much movement at all....

Did you know in 2004 on NINE House race in the entire county were decide by less than 5%, only 18 had a margin less than 10%

417/435 races were 10%+ races...

scary actually....

The Senate will be interesting...  The Dems have more seats up, but the GOP might be in a bit more trouble..

Safe Dems

Akaka, Daniel - (D - HI) 
Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM)
Carper, Thomas - (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY) 
Conrad, Kent - (D - ND) 
Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) 
Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) 
Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA)
Jeffords, James - (I - VT) (Defacto Dem seat)
Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA) 
Kohl, Herb - (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT)

Nelson, Ben - (D - NE) - It is Nebraska, so the GOP always has a shot, but Nelson should get a solid though likely not crushing win.

Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD) - Sarbanes is retiring, so it's a open seat...  which give the GOP about the same shot a Muslim has of become Pope...

Safe GOP
 
Allen, George - (R - VA) 
Burns, Conrad - (R - MT) 
DeWine, Mike - (R - OH) 
Ensign, John - (R - NV)

Frist, Bill - (R - TN) - Frist is retiring to run for President, GOP still has the edge

Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX)
Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent - (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard - (R - IN)
Thomas, Craig - (R - WY)

Possible GOP Pickups

Byrd, Robert - (D - WV)  - If Byrd is both a) alive and b) a candidate he wins in a walk, but a & b are hardly givens.  Without Byrd WV would have a mild GOP lean for the Senate seat.

Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA)  - Cantwell is, at best, a middle of the pack Senator, and (presumably) Dino Rossi will have sympathy, name recognition, a ton of money and a Gore2000 like "we was robbed" intensity - This seat is a barn burner - too close to call.

Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) - Lackluster victory in 2000 against a very ordinary GOP candidate, GOP is targeting this seat

Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI) An 'adaquate" candidate in a mildly Dem leaning state so she has a edge, but not a huge one.  A "B+" or better GOP candidate with enough money has a shot..
 
Possible Dem Pickups
 
Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI)  A (nominally)GOP candidate in Rhode Island is by definition vulnerable

Snowe, Olympia - (R - ME) - See Rhode Island, just less so... Snowe is a very good Senator and should win, but don't expect it to be 20 points..

Talent, James - (R - MO)  - Good Senator and great logistics.  Race will be close however.
 
Santorum, Rick - (R - PA)  - The most likely (IMHO) Dem Pickup.  To say Santorum is a "target" is like saying Hitler has issues with anger management...  On a dollars per vote basis, this may be the most expensive election in the history of the Mid-west..

Casey will likely edge him out for a modest victory, say 52 / 48 or so...
 

I must respectfully disagree concerning Bingaman and Conrad (especially Conrad).

It all depends on the candidates the Republicans have in those races.

[Alcon]

GOP Dark Horses

Governor Robert Taft II of Ohio. 
He has the pedigree, he is Governor of an important electoral state.

Senator Saxby Chambliss of Georgia. 
Remember the other Georgian who came out of nowhere and was elected President in 1976?

Isn't Taft fairly hated in Ohio or am I crazy?

[Moooooo]

I think Taft's approval ratings are in the 30's.