GOP Dark Horses that can come out of nowhere, and win big

[Reaganfan]

I am beginning to think Tim Pawlenty may be the big dark horse that will come out of nowhere, and win big.

[PBrunsel]

Allen

[AuH2O]

Um Allen isn't a "darkhorse," he's pretty heavily favored actually.

[Moooooo]

"The Republicans don't have "dark horses" and "insurgent" candidates.

Wait, let me rephrase that: They have them, but they just never win the nomination. With Republicans, the nomination always goes to whichever party leader's turn it is. That's why Nixon beat Rockefeller, Ford beat Reagan, Bush I beat Dole, Dole beat Buchanan, and Bush II beat McCain.

My guess is that it's Frist turn in '08. He is Senate Majority leader, after all. And being stiffer than a board left in a New Hampshire snowdrift didn't seem to hurt Bob Dole or George Bush I any." - james

[Keystone Phil]

Allen is not a dark horse. The biggest dark horse would probably be Pawlenty.

[ian]

I knew I would be the only person to vote for Haley Barbour.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Allen is as likely to get the nomination as any.

Wouldn't classify him as a 'dark horse.'

[KEmperor]

I vote for OTHER.  HE IS A GOOD CANDIDATE!!!

[Joe Republic]

I think a real dark-horse candidate would be somebody like Linda Lingle of Hawaii or Jim Douglas of Vermont.  Neither would win the nomination, or probably even come close, but we've all been surprised before.

[CARLHAYDEN]

If you want to have a REAl dark horse, I suggest Representative Tancredo.

The fight in the GOP about dealing with illegal immigration is really becoming nasty.

The corporate types are stealing a page from John C. Calhoun and insisting with increasing boldness that illegal immigration is a positive good, and should NOT be stopped, merely legalized.

Most of the opponents of illegal immigration stand on principle, and note that terrorists can also easily slip into the United States illegally as our southern border is inadequately policied.

The corporate types note they are outnumbered and are getting very nasty.  They don't want to lose their source of cheap labor, including illegal nannies.

[Max Power]

If you want to have a REAl dark horse, I suggest Representative Tancredo.

I agree. That's why I voted other. Tancredo is a fool, in my opinion.

[PBrunsel]

Here the best Dark Horse though Representative Jim Nussle. He is virtually clean from all scandals, is independently wealthy, and is a fluent speaker. Once he becomes Governor I hope he is considered for the Vice Presidency if not the Presidency.

[Hitchabrut]

Allen. Coleman should wait for 2012.

[Moooooo]

Here the best Dark Horse though Representative Jim Nussle. He is virtually clean from all scandals, is independently wealthy, and is a fluent speaker. Once he becomes Governor I hope he is considered for the Vice Presidency if not the Presidency.

I wouldnt say Nussle is "clean".

Nussle can be tied directly to the ballooning federal budget deficit. He is the chair of the budget committee.  He also has intern issues, he divorced his wife after an affair to marry one.

PBrunsel, what do you think about Republican Bob Vander Plaats?  Ive heard that he may run for Governor in 2006.  Some say he could do pretty well.

[Joe Republic]

Allen. Coleman should wait for 2012.

2012, eh?  Sounds like you wouldn't have much confidence in Allen in the 2008 general.

[PBrunsel]

PBrunsel, what do you think about Republican Bob Vander Plaats?  Ive heard that he may run for Governor in 2006.  Some say he could do pretty well.

You don't hear much about him. He will be a real dark horse in the Republican Primary. Like Jim Sukkup [I hate that name] in the 2002 Republican Primary he will run with lots of momentum in the begining, but will run out of steam against a stronger candidate [like Nussle].

[Moooooo]

Interesting response from another board regarding Nussle running for Governor in 2006...

"How has Nussle been able to win in a Democratic leaning district? He appears and behaves as a moderate in public and at public forums. His newsletters sent out at taxpayer expense talk about what he is doing for his constituency (and he does get pork for projects in counties where he needs Democrat or no party votes - Dubuque/Clinton/Scott).

If his divorce didn't hurt him in 1996 and his marriage to a lobbyist in 2002 didn't hurt him in 2002 they're not going to hurt him now.

He's never shaken that young thoughtful nice boy that would never harm a soul image. People vote for him because he seems like a leader, a nice guy who will represent their best interests.

It doesn't matter who we put up against Nussle in 2006. He will have a whisper campaign out about all of our candidates during the primary - never traceable back to him. He will be cute at debates and make people chuckle but never truly answer the hard questions.

He is slippery, he is smart, and he will be well funded.

Don't think for a second the Governor's office is his last stop.

Jim Nussle is running for President.'

[TomC]

Allen is not a dark horse.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

In three national polls, the best Allen has to show is 2%,  "-" on another, which can't be good, and wasn't mentioned in the third. On the pollingreport.com "Political figures" approval ratings, he is not even polled.

Right now, anyone OTHER than the following is a dark horse right now.

Giuliani, McCain, Frist, Jeb and maybe Condoleeza Rice

[A18]

Well, yes, I guess if you consider every candidate to ever get the nomination to be a dark horse, you can go ahead and use polls from three and a half years out of the election as the standard.

[Notre Dame rules!]

"The Republicans don't have "dark horses" and "insurgent" candidates.

Wait, let me rephrase that: They have them, but they just never win the nomination. With Republicans, the nomination always goes to whichever party leader's turn it is. That's why Nixon beat Rockefeller, Ford beat Reagan, Bush I beat Dole, Dole beat Buchanan, and Bush II beat McCain.

My guess is that it's Frist turn in '08. He is Senate Majority leader, after all. And being stiffer than a board left in a New Hampshire snowdrift didn't seem to hurt Bob Dole or George Bush I any." - james

I would agree with that, but 1980 was something of an exception.  I believe that the GOP leadership would have preferred a 'moderate' George H.W. Bush over the 'conservative' Ronald Reagan, especially since the GOP leadership of both the Senate and the House were quite moderate.   

[AuH2O]

Nussle has no national potential.

Like philip says, polls are meaningless at this point even for identifying leaders.

It's fairly normal for politicians to want to be President... it is the most powerful political office in the world. So it's not really news when a politician aspires to the White House.

The best long-term effort has to go to Ralph Reed. It takes someone pretty smart to build the electorate they are going to need over 20 years later, not to mention picking the right state to match up the feasibility and timing of his ascent.

It's actually harder than it appears on the surface, because of the apparent "half-life" principle in politics, which is to say most people elected President are rapid risers.

Reed, who has a Ph.D. in history from Emory, recognized the growing value of evangelicals to the GOP, helped solidfy that bloc and incorporate it smoothly into the GOP apparatus.

The game theory can never be perfect because of the variables involved (you have to belong to one of two parties, each of which have internal dynamics). Becoming Governor is always smart, possibly even worth risking a loss as opposed to running for Senate.

I thus question the judgement of JD Hayworth for dropping out of the Governor's race in Arizona. He's playing it safe, which if you want to be President, isn't smart. So maybe he's not interested.

[Beet]

Any (R) from Minnesota.

[The Vorlon]

The GOP has a real choice to make in 2008 as a party (so do the Dems, but it's a different choice)

2004 was very unusual in that it really was a "Battle of the Bases" with both sides spending an historically unprecedented % of their budgets, time, policy pronouncements and campaign strategy rallying the base almost at the expense of the swing voters.

Bush LOST Ohio independants by 19% and still won the state, as an example of the polarization.

I just don't see a GOP candidate out there who can inspire both that level of turnout and devotion from the GOP base as Bush did in 2004

Which leaves a move to the center....

Both Coleman and Pawlenty are a lot closer to the middle politically than Bush.  If the GOP starts to crowd the center, 2008 could be a very interesting race.

If Hillary gets the Dem nomination 2008 could almost be a mirror image of 2004 where "HateHillary" replaces "HateBush" as the underlying theme of the whole show. ie thew Dem base versus "HateHillary" like 2004 was the GOOP base versus "HateBush"

I would personally like to see the GOP run a Libertarian wing candidate (hard right economically, socially liberal) but I really doubt that will happen.

There is a possibility that 2008 could be even more divisive that 2004.

If the Dems pick an "abortion on demand, owned by the teachers, I hate America"  candidate, it would allow the GOP to run a Moral Majority (sic) counter crazy and again try to run a  "My base is bigger than your base" type election like 2004

If, as I expect, the Dems have a pretty strong cycle in 2006, I imagine the GOP moderates will have a much better shot at things.

[A18]

You thought the Dems were going to have a pretty strong cycle in 2004.

We're not going to put forward a social liberal, but we might put forward someone who's mildly socially libertarian. By mild, I mean he might oppose a ban on physician assisted suicide, but he's not going to try to legalize heroin or anything like that.

Social liberal implies support for affirmative action and gun control. I can't see our base going for that.

[Keystone Phil]

Allen is not a dark horse.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

In three national polls, the best Allen has to show is 2%,  "-" on another, which can't be good, and wasn't mentioned in the third. On the pollingreport.com "Political figures" approval ratings, he is not even polled.

Right now, anyone OTHER than the following is a dark horse right now.

Giuliani, McCain, Frist, Jeb and maybe Condoleeza Rice

He's not coming out of no where. People expect him to run.