NH-ARG: Shaheen+5
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Author Topic: NH-ARG: Shaheen+5  (Read 1659 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 16, 2014, 09:32:08 AM »

50-45 Shaheen/Brown

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/senate14
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King
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2014, 09:37:18 AM »

ARG's back? Truly we are in the darkest of times.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2014, 09:38:35 AM »

Finally, some quality polling to tell us exactly what's happening here. I'd like to thank the fine men and women at ARG for making this possible.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2014, 09:38:57 AM »

So Shaheen really is in trouble then? Damn.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2014, 09:48:36 AM »

ARG's back? Truly we are in the darkest of times.

Finally, some quality polling to tell us exactly what's happening here. I'd like to thank the fine men and women at ARG for making this possible.

So Shaheen really is in trouble then? Damn.

...

How ARG conducts their polling:

First, numbers are picked randomly out of a hat


Then, through a contract with the local school district, third grade students are told to take the numbers and use them as variables in the "The Supersecret Highly Intelligent Turnout formula", hereafter known as The S.H.I.T. formula

It doesn't matter if they do the math correctly - that's what the margin of error is for

ARG then randomly calls a number determined by The S.H.I.T. formula. Racial turnout is based upon what color pen the third-graders used

ARG then subtracts 7 from one of the candidates totals, 'cause 7 is their lucky number

NOTE: ARG is currently considering switching to a new polling methodology involving bloodhounds, a bundle of bananas, and a bingo parlor off I-67
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2014, 09:59:21 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2014, 10:02:50 AM by Lettuce and cheese salad--hold the dressing! »

I look back fondly on the days when ARG was the worst polling firm we had to deal with, before the proliferation of garbage like Gravis, WAA, Vox Populi, etc.

That said, ARG's record in NH is particularly awful, if I remember correctly.
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King
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2014, 11:24:28 AM »

Fake polling must be a profitable business. Perhaps I should start a firm of my own.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2014, 11:47:18 AM »

Fake polling must be a profitable business. Perhaps I should start a firm of my own.

No, no, no!!! You should have your own comedy show.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2014, 12:08:04 PM »

It tells you something when the most believable recent poll in NH is from ARG.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2014, 03:25:59 AM »

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by ARG on 2014-09-15

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2014, 03:30:27 AM »


Dave, you entered this the wrong way:

The margin is 50-45 (among likely voters), 47-45 is among registered voters.

At this point, we should put LV polls into the database, no ?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2014, 03:36:06 AM »

Fool's gold for Republicans as long as Shaheen continues to seek re-election, but this poll probably is closer to the truth than the ones that were showing her up by 8-10 a couple of months ago.
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SPQR
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2014, 06:40:03 AM »

Higher D advantage among LV rather than RV?
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