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  CO/AR-Marist: Hick and Hutch ahead
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Author Topic: CO/AR-Marist: Hick and Hutch ahead  (Read 1300 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 07, 2014, 09:12:22 AM »

CO (likely voters)Sad

43% John Hickenlooper (D)
39% Bob Beauprez (R)
  5% Matthew Hess (L)
  4% Harry Hempy (G)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/97-colorado-udall-ahead-of-gardner-in-u-s-senate-race-hickenlooper-edges-beauprez-for-governor

AR (likely voters)Sad

48% Asa Hutchinson (R)
39% Mike Ross (D)
  3% Frank Gilbert (L)
  3% Josh Drake (G)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/97-arkansas-cotton-leads-pryor-in-u-s-senate-race-hutchinson-ahead-of-ross-in-governors-race
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2014, 09:13:44 AM »

Harry Hempy is a pretty cool name for a Green Party candidate ...
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2014, 09:57:26 AM »

Wow, this looks like further proof that Dems may have a real turnout problem in Arkansas.  IIRC, Marist had Pryor up something like 10 when it was only RVs polled.  Of course, the polls may be exaggerating this, but the RV/LV discrepancy seems to be popping up multiple times.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2014, 02:01:05 PM »

It's looking like Democrats will sweep Colorado for a fifth election year in a row! It's definitely still a toss-up swing-state though. Definitely.
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Josiah Quincy Did Nothing Wrong
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2014, 02:16:05 PM »

Looks generally reasonable.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2014, 03:13:44 PM »

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2014, 03:31:00 PM »

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.

I agree with you. Pryor's only obvious advantage is incumbency, but that shouldn't be enough to counter everything you listed. Anyone from the state or who knows it really well able to shed some light? Maybe he's just running a superior campaign?
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2014, 05:16:12 PM »

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.

I agree with you. Pryor's only obvious advantage is incumbency, but that shouldn't be enough to counter everything you listed. Anyone from the state or who knows it really well able to shed some light? Maybe he's just running a superior campaign?

I actually think Hutch is a stronger candidate than Cotton.  Hutchison is way less polarizing and fairly centrist(look at some of his ads on education, for instance).  Incumbency is also big too.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2014, 05:16:59 PM »

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.

I agree with you. Pryor's only obvious advantage is incumbency, but that shouldn't be enough to counter everything you listed. Anyone from the state or who knows it really well able to shed some light? Maybe he's just running a superior campaign?

AR vetos can't stick because of simple majority override and the legislature will only get more R.  That could be hindering his funding/base enthusiasm behind the scenes?
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2014, 09:49:49 PM »

Who are all these Pryor/Hutchinson voters!? It should be the opposite.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2014, 09:54:49 PM »

I really don't know what's happening.  Ross should be doing much better. 
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2014, 10:39:37 PM »

The third party candidates were listed as options, not merely if volunteered by pollees, right?

Memo to all pollsters: unless the 3rd party candidate is at least orman/pressler level popularity already, stop. Doing. That!
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2014, 11:06:31 PM »

Who are all these Pryor/Hutchinson voters!? It should be the opposite.

I've heard Hutchinson has done some really good ad campaigns showing himself in a positive good-governmenty sorta light whereas Cotton hasn't really. It might be a matter of voters sometimes preferring to be told what you're for rather than what you're against.
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backtored
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« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2014, 09:51:25 AM »

It's looking like Democrats will sweep Colorado for a fifth election year in a row! It's definitely still a toss-up swing-state though. Definitely.

This poll is terrible for Hickenlooper.  He's only up four with the Libertarian getting 5%?  That's all?  In a Marist poll that gives Udall a very generous lead at least a few points larger than any other pollster?

Beauprez looks very, very strong at this point.
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