Who will win in Colorado?

[Person Man]

Colorado was the state, and many COGOTPers like backtored still believe that Colorado still is or can become the state where the voters main narrative is "we finally gave liberals a chance and they blew it". However,  they may have missed that boat in 2010. The furthest this narrative has played out is that conservative activists won a string of low turn out election this year and last but that is what they were doing in 2009-10. In 2010, they were consistently ahead by 7 ish and no they are down by 2. Further, they still lost in 2010 and aren't raising enough money this time. Combined with how far to the right the Republicans are still running and all the violent and offensive rhetoric they use down ballot AND the fact more people will be able to vote (probably why the race is going underpolled), the Democrats should do well this year. Of course Republicans have been able to build a good narrative around Hick being soft on crime and they have called Udall out on trying to lie on Obamacare (though this is countered by the fact that this "lie" is trying to stop the Republicans from making fake stats about O bamacare). Republicans do have a path to victory based on Nixon style issues but the only way they can win is if CO Democrats run a campaign as poorly as the Florida ones.

[Person Man]

Probably Udall, but it should be noted that in 2008, polls significantly overestimated Udall against Bob Shaffer, at the same time as they underestimated Obama against McCain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2008#Polling

No, they didn't.

If anything, it gives very good credence to this-

Udall. Colorado polls have a history of under sampling Democrats, and now that the state uses all-mail ballots the traditionally Democratic constituencies with midterm turnout issues should vote in larger numbers. Basically, if the Democratic candidate leads, is tied with the Republican, or trails the Republican by 2-3 points, odds are they'll win.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2010#Polling_3

Maybe the mail in thing won't operate on top of the bias but help cement it at 3%. Gardner can't count on Udall losing. He must win on in his own right.

[Person Man]

What are we all basing our guesses on? Month old polls? A month is a lifetime in politics. Colorado GOP has been scoring victories as of late, so this is really a Tossup

Since the poll?

[Person Man]

Again, I'm not too worried about Colorado. If Gardner loses, he can challenge Bennet in 16

Gardner's chances at unseating an incumbent would be better with a midterm electorate.

I agree. If Gardner loses this year, he's probably done.

Unless it's 1980 or 2004 again

[Person Man]

Republicans were very confident in 2008, 2010 and 2012.

[Person Man]

Well, well, well. Look at who has come out of his hole to grace us with his fantastical blathering. It's good to see you are hackish as ever. Perhaps after you get thoroughly owned for yet another election cycle, you will come to realize the truth about Colorado. I'm not quite sure where you live, but it certainly isn't in reality, yet alone Colorado.

If I'm wrong, I'll be here eating crow.

Oh, you're going to eat crow? Haven't you had more than enough crow already to last a lifetime? Your whole political life has been nothing but a feast on crow. The time has come for you to get schooled by Panda Express. I'm gonna crush you like a crouton. I'm gonna fry you like a fritter. I'm gonna smoke you like a bong.

Let's take a look at all the crow you've consumed throughout the years, shall we?

On 2010:

I wouldn't be surprised if Hick takes a look at the political environment and decides not to run.  He's already the third-string QB in a race that needs a Peyton Manning to beat McInnis.  And he already has rural Democrats lobbing bombs over the Front Range at him because he looks to a lot of people too much like a carpetbagging liberal (remind of a certain Senator from Colorado?).  The fact is that Obama's approval rating in Colorado is among the lowest in the country and Hickenlooper's (and Ritter's and Bennet's and...) ties to the president will hurt him a lot.  Add to that the fact that Hickenlooper's business ties could cost him some union support (which Romanoff apparently tried picking up over the weekend) and this looks like an absolute disaster. 

He'll keep it close enough to make it interesting, but my guess is that his rather liberal ideas seep into the suburbs and beyond, his poll numbers will take a big hit and McInnis could end up winning with Ritter-esque numbers.

PPP also had Hickenlooper up by 11 points which is ridiculous.  If he's up at all--and I doubt that he is--Hick leads by a point or two.  It looks more like PPP is trying to cheerlead their candidates rather than do an accurate poll.  

That's funny--Rasmussen is the only pollster who has had any consistency in this race.  The only poll (besides, ironically, Rasmussen's February poll) showing Hickenlooper winning was the liberal PPP poll showing him up by a ridiculous 11 points. 

On the 2012 Presidential Election in Colorado:

 Obama is doing far worse in Colorado than in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia.  Those numbers tell you where 2012 will be won for Team Obama.  And it won't be in Colorado.

I'm fairly confident that Obama will lose Colorado. 

PPP's poll simply over-samples Democrats.  That's fine, I suppose.  But you just have to consider that when analyzing the PPP polls out of Colorado.  And if you take a Democrat-leaning poll that has Obama up only 2 and another poll with his approval numbers at only 39% in Colorado, you have a big Obama loss in Colorado.

Colorado will end up moving more safely in Romney's direction,

people will be genuinely surprised that Colorado ends up with a PVI of R +3 or R+4 in November.

SurveyUSA is up to its usual games, I see.

You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Actually, if you look into the crosstabs, it's not that close at all in Colorado.  If they had polled the state correctly, Romney would have a decent lead.  ARG has 34 D 32 R 34 I.  The problem?  Active registration is actually like this: 37 R, 32 D, and 31 I.  In other words, they underpolled Republicans by five points, overpolled Dems by two, and significantly overpolled unaffiliateds (who favor the president by two in this poll).

If you work out the math, I imagine that Romney would be leading by at least three or four. 

Unbelievable how people accept this stuff carte blanche without actually looking into whether the books are cooked (as they frequently are, for whatever reason, in Colorado). 

Did the Bain ads even air in Colorado? Thought those were mainly targeted in the rust belt.

We've had plenty of them here in the Denver area.  And they're probably helped Romney rather than hurt him.

I would expect Romney to crank out a win similar to President Bush's margin in 2004.

It's a D +3 sample.  That doesn't even pass the laugh test.  The National Journal story was probably legit--if you can only must a three-point lead when you oversample Democrats by six points, then you're probably in real trouble.

With PPP, you have to peel beneath the numbers to get the real story.

On the political leanings of Colorado in general:

The reality on the ground is that Colorado looks poised to emerge after Election Day, once again, as a state that leans Republican in absence of a compelling, moderate Democrat running in a bad year for the GOP.  Way too many people drank the blue Kool Aid that pundits were serving over the charred carcus of the state Republican Party.  It was so weird to see that happening considering the fact that Colorado is still a fairly conservative state, all things considered.  It's hard to declare Colorado the newest Democratic stronghold when most voters in the state gravitate to ideas that run contrary to the heart of the Democratic Party (nationally, anyway). 

Coloradans have not become more "left-wing."  In fact, if you take the last 20 years out as a case study, the opposite might be more true. 

The poll's methodology is even more hackneyed than the sort of baloney that PPP usually produces.


The reality: Colorado's a conservative state.

The Colorado GOP is actually is pretty good shape here.  We'll likely maintain our 4-3 congressional split, and might even pick up CD-7.  We'll also probably keep the state house, and possibly pick up the state Senate. 

Colorado has snapped back to the right.  I don't know what that portends for the country more broadly, but I won't at all be surprised to see Romney lose by handful and still win in Colorado.  Frankly, the whole "new majority" narrative about Colorado and even Nevada has been wrong for six long years.

Did they poll the marijuana referendum?

Yes.  The Post will release those results probably sometime this weekend.  I really don't expect it to pass. 

You really only post about Colorado and when you do, you're completely wrong. Always. You're going to be wrong again when the GOP goes down in flames again. My hope is you'll finally wake up to the truth but you're one of the most delusional people here. Your predictions have been one big joke after another but it's no longer funny. Time to wake up and smell the coffee, son.

Republicans were very confident in 2008, 2010 and 2012.

No, at least some of us were not. I assure you of that.  Even 2010 was pretty tough given our gubernatorial woes.

lol

[Person Man]

Colorado will either be the eighth or ninth seat the GOP wins.