OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead

[Tender Branson]

50-36 Merkley/Wheby

Link will be out later.

[Chief Justice windjammer]

50-36 Merkley/Wheby

Link will be out later.

How do you know that Tender Branson?

[Tender Branson]

50-36 Merkley/Wheby

Link will be out later.

How do you know that Tender Branson?

From POLITICO.

Meanwhile the link is out:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_OR_529.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

BREAKING: Once and always Safe D.

[Miles]

And the DSCC is sending operatives to OR instead of LA

[Chief Justice windjammer]

Well,
I didn'y Wehby to be so well-known, (only 34% don't know her, 25% for Jeff Merkley, I expected the difference in term of name recognition more important).

But the problem is that she's already unpopular. Her scandal hasn't sunk her campaign, but some damages,...

And Jeff Merkley is relatively popular, and Obama isn't terribly unpopular (46/47). So, I know Republicans are always excited by saying "BLABLABLA, OBAMACAAAAAAAAAARE, OBAMA-CARE-CARE-CARE". But that won't be enough. The fact she's pro SSM and not anti abortion isn't enough. The last OR rep senator was seen as relatively moderate, but both on economic and social issues.

She should support some popular measures, like minimum wage hike, but I doubt she will do that, she still wants the Koch money you know.

[Kevin]

Well,
I didn'y Wehby to be so well-known, (only 34% don't know her, 25% for Jeff Merkley, I expected the difference in term of name recognition more important).

But the problem is that she's already unpopular. Her scandal hasn't sunk her campaign, but some damages,...

And Jeff Merkley is relatively popular, and Obama isn't terribly unpopular (46/47). So, I know Republicans are always excited by saying "BLABLABLA, OBAMACAAAAAAAAAARE, OBAMA-CARE-CARE-CARE". But that won't be enough. The fact she's pro SSM and not anti abortion isn't enough. The last OR rep senator was seen as relatively moderate, but both on economic and social issues.

She should support some popular measures, like minimum wage hike, but I doubt she will do that, she still wants the Koch money you know.

How can you be sure the stalking allegations against Wehby damaged her campaign? Against a generic R male candidate I would agree with you, but since the accusations against her have been redacted against her by accusers I wouldn't be so sure. Also electorally I see it being alot harder to make these types of negatives stick against a female candidate even a Republican one in a Democratic leaning state like Oregon.

Overall I agree that she faces an uphill battle nonetheless.

[Chief Justice windjammer]

Well,
I didn'y Wehby to be so well-known, (only 34% don't know her, 25% for Jeff Merkley, I expected the difference in term of name recognition more important).

But the problem is that she's already unpopular. Her scandal hasn't sunk her campaign, but some damages,...

And Jeff Merkley is relatively popular, and Obama isn't terribly unpopular (46/47). So, I know Republicans are always excited by saying "BLABLABLA, OBAMACAAAAAAAAAARE, OBAMA-CARE-CARE-CARE". But that won't be enough. The fact she's pro SSM and not anti abortion isn't enough. The last OR rep senator was seen as relatively moderate, but both on economic and social issues.

She should support some popular measures, like minimum wage hike, but I doubt she will do that, she still wants the Koch money you know.

How can you be sure the stalking allegations against her sunk her campaign? Against a generic R male candidate I would agree with you but since the accusations against her have been redacted against her by accusers I wouldn't be so sure. Also electorally I see it being alot harder to make these types of negatives stick against a female candidate even a Republican one in a Democratic leaning state like Oregon.

Overall I agree that she faces an uphill battle nonetheless.

Kevin, I believe the accusations won't implode her campaign, but she has a -16 in term of job approval, I can see 2 reasons:
- too moderate for the gop (20% of the GOP voters don't like her)
-and the stalking accusation, I mean, when you know nothing about the candidate, and the only time you have heard about her is this story,... Obviously you don't like her. Even if this scandal won't implose her campaign.

[DrScholl]

Lean R

[SWE]

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

[IceSpear]

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

I think we should pay you money for this brilliant electoral analysis. Would you like your own website as well?

[Flake]

New Poll: Oregon Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-05-27

Summary: D: 50%, R: 36%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[GaussLaw]

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.

[SWE]

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.

lol

[GaussLaw]

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.

lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.

[LeBron]

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.

lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.

SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).

And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.

IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

And the DSCC is sending operatives to OR instead of LA

The Kerry campaign sent Al Gore to Hawaii, so I wouldn't read too much into where the operatives are going.

[Never]

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.

lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.

SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).

And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.

IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be.

Sabato is probably too optimistic about McConnell, but if I'm not mistaken, his Crystal Ball site isn't measuring races based on the expected margin of victory, rather, he is focusing on how likely it is that a candidate will win in general. He could be justified in saying that both Merkley and McConnell have the same chances of winning. It is probable that neither is at much risking of losing this year.

[SWE]

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.

lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.

SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).

And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.

IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be.

Sabato is probably too optimistic about McConnell, but if I'm not mistaken, his Crystal Ball site isn't measuring races based on the expected margin of victory, rather, he is focusing on how likely it is that a candidate will win in general. He could be justified in saying that both Merkley and McConnell have the same chances of winning. It is probable that neither is at much risking of losing this year.

A key difference between the two races is that McConnell at least had a chance of losing