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  OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead
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Author Topic: OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead  (Read 1626 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 29, 2014, 09:27:41 am »

50-36 Merkley/Wheby

Link will be out later.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2014, 09:47:29 am »

50-36 Merkley/Wheby

Link will be out later.
How do you know that Tender Branson? Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2014, 09:48:49 am »


From POLITICO.

Meanwhile the link is out:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_OR_529.pdf
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2014, 09:49:37 am »

BREAKING: Once and always Safe D.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2014, 09:52:35 am »

And the DSCC is sending operatives to OR instead of LA Tongue
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2014, 10:03:11 am »

Well,
I didn'y Wehby to be so well-known, (only 34% don't know her, 25% for Jeff Merkley, I expected the difference in term of name recognition more important).

But the problem is that she's already unpopular. Her scandal hasn't sunk her campaign, but some damages,...

And Jeff Merkley is relatively popular, and Obama isn't terribly unpopular (46/47). So, I know Republicans are always excited by saying "BLABLABLA, OBAMACAAAAAAAAAARE, OBAMA-CARE-CARE-CARE". But that won't be enough. The fact she's pro SSM and not anti abortion isn't enough. The last OR rep senator was seen as relatively moderate, but both on economic and social issues.

She should support some popular measures, like minimum wage hike, but I doubt she will do that, she still wants the Koch money you know.
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Kevin
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2014, 10:11:42 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2014, 10:49:56 am by Kevin »

Well,
I didn'y Wehby to be so well-known, (only 34% don't know her, 25% for Jeff Merkley, I expected the difference in term of name recognition more important).

But the problem is that she's already unpopular. Her scandal hasn't sunk her campaign, but some damages,...

And Jeff Merkley is relatively popular, and Obama isn't terribly unpopular (46/47). So, I know Republicans are always excited by saying "BLABLABLA, OBAMACAAAAAAAAAARE, OBAMA-CARE-CARE-CARE". But that won't be enough. The fact she's pro SSM and not anti abortion isn't enough. The last OR rep senator was seen as relatively moderate, but both on economic and social issues.

She should support some popular measures, like minimum wage hike, but I doubt she will do that, she still wants the Koch money you know.

How can you be sure the stalking allegations against Wehby damaged her campaign? Against a generic R male candidate I would agree with you, but since the accusations against her have been redacted against her by accusers I wouldn't be so sure. Also electorally I see it being alot harder to make these types of negatives stick against a female candidate even a Republican one in a Democratic leaning state like Oregon.

Overall I agree that she faces an uphill battle nonetheless.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2014, 10:16:32 am »

Well,
I didn'y Wehby to be so well-known, (only 34% don't know her, 25% for Jeff Merkley, I expected the difference in term of name recognition more important).

But the problem is that she's already unpopular. Her scandal hasn't sunk her campaign, but some damages,...

And Jeff Merkley is relatively popular, and Obama isn't terribly unpopular (46/47). So, I know Republicans are always excited by saying "BLABLABLA, OBAMACAAAAAAAAAARE, OBAMA-CARE-CARE-CARE". But that won't be enough. The fact she's pro SSM and not anti abortion isn't enough. The last OR rep senator was seen as relatively moderate, but both on economic and social issues.

She should support some popular measures, like minimum wage hike, but I doubt she will do that, she still wants the Koch money you know.

How can you be sure the stalking allegations against her sunk her campaign? Against a generic R male candidate I would agree with you but since the accusations against her have been redacted against her by accusers I wouldn't be so sure. Also electorally I see it being alot harder to make these types of negatives stick against a female candidate even a Republican one in a Democratic leaning state like Oregon.

Overall I agree that she faces an uphill battle nonetheless.

Kevin, I believe the accusations won't implode her campaign, but she has a -16 in term of job approval, I can see 2 reasons:
- too moderate for the gop (20% of the GOP voters don't like her)
-and the stalking accusation, I mean, when you know nothing about the candidate, and the only time you have heard about her is this story,... Obviously you don't like her. Even if this scandal won't implose her campaign.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2014, 10:28:04 am »

Lean R
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SWE
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2014, 02:01:32 pm »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2014, 02:13:32 pm »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

I think we should pay you money for this brilliant electoral analysis. Would you like your own website as well? Wink
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Flake
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« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2014, 04:02:26 pm »

New Poll: Oregon Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-05-27

Summary: D: 50%, R: 36%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2014, 04:52:28 pm »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does


 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.
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SWE
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« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2014, 05:01:31 pm »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does


 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.
lol
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2014, 05:20:25 pm »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does


 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.
lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2014, 08:44:19 pm »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does


 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.
lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.
SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).

And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.

IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be. Wink
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2014, 09:43:55 pm »

And the DSCC is sending operatives to OR instead of LA Tongue

The Kerry campaign sent Al Gore to Hawaii, so I wouldn't read too much into where the operatives are going.
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Never
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« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2014, 09:51:20 pm »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does


 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.
lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.
SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).

And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.

IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be. Wink

Sabato is probably too optimistic about McConnell, but if I'm not mistaken, his Crystal Ball site isn't measuring races based on the expected margin of victory, rather, he is focusing on how likely it is that a candidate will win in general. He could be justified in saying that both Merkley and McConnell have the same chances of winning. It is probable that neither is at much risking of losing this year.
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SWE
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« Reply #18 on: May 30, 2014, 05:26:49 am »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does


 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.
lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.
SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).

And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.

IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be. Wink

Sabato is probably too optimistic about McConnell, but if I'm not mistaken, his Crystal Ball site isn't measuring races based on the expected margin of victory, rather, he is focusing on how likely it is that a candidate will win in general. He could be justified in saying that both Merkley and McConnell have the same chances of winning. It is probable that neither is at much risking of losing this year.
A key difference between the two races is that McConnell at least had a chance of losing
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